UK local by-elections 2013

[ObserverIE]

Oldham, Royton South

Lab 63.7 (-6.1)
Con 16.6 (-7.6)
Lib Dem 15.0 (+9.0)
Green 4.8 (+4.8)

Camden, Gospel Oak

Lab 59.9 (+20.1)
Con 19.7 (-8.2)
Green 6.3 (-5.7)
Lib Dem 6.2 (-14.2)
TUSC 5.1 (+5.1)
BNP 2.7 (+2.7)

Arun, Aldwick East

Lib Dem 33.6 (+20.6)
Con 31.3 (-19.7)
UKIP 29.7 (+17.9)
Lab 5.4 (-5.6)

Runnymede, Foxhills

UKIP 40.2 (+17.4)
Con 38.1 (-8.5)
Lab 21.7 (-0.3)

[YL]

News from Sussex and Surrey:

Arun, Aldwick East

LD 383
Con 357
UKIP 339
Lab 61

LD gain from Con

Runnymede, Foxhills

UKIP 336
Con 318
Lab 181

UKIP gain from Con

So the Tory losing streak continues.

[minionofmidas]

Quite the set of results.

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[MaxQue]

Conservatives haven't won a by-election since Ross-on-Wye, on January 24th and the last time they improved their share was on February 14th (+0.9 in Gainsborough East, West Lindsay). Sure, the by-elections in February weren't in good wards for them, but Cromer, Foxhills and Aldwick weren't really supposed to be close.

Through, in the case of Foxhills and Aldwich, the problem is UKIP, obviously.

[minionofmidas]

Looks like the Tory Party on Holiday is morphing into the Tory Party in Retirement!

[You kip if you want to...]

May 2nd will be a lovely night.

[Gary J]

The Aldwick East result is interesting. In southern England the Liberal Democrats often have a significant vote, which tends to get swamped by the Tories support in many contests. If UKIP and the Conservatives are both competitive in a ward, which the Liberal Democrats actively contest, the Lib Dem chances of emerging as the winner increase.

[doktorb]

I always smile when the Holy Word introduces non-British people to such place names as "Tufnell Park", "Stour Provost" and "Margaret Marsh".

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

This week I also tried introducing non-British people to the lyrics of Ian Dury, but Kris cut that bit out.  Clearly getting kn*b jokes in under the radar two weeks in a row was too much to hope for.

[ObserverIE]

Dacorum, Adeyfield West

Lib Dem 32.6 (+18.0)
Lab 25.0 (-17.5)
Con 20.6 (-22.3)
UKIP 17.3 (+17.3)
Eng Dem 4.6 (+4.6)

North Dorset, Lodbourne

Lib Dem 47.9 (+0.1)
Con 34.4 (-17.8)
Lab 17.7 (+17.7)

Islington, Junction

Lab 61.9 (+23.4)
Green 17.6 (+6.0)
Lib Dem 12.7 (-27.4)
Con 5.5 (-4.4)
BNP 1.4 (+1.4)
SPGB 0.8 (+0.8)

Islington, St George's

Lab 71.3 (+37.4)
Lib Dem 15.6 (-26.6)
Green 8.6 (-5.5)
Con 3.7 (-6.1)
BNP 0.8 (+0.8)

Havering, Gooshays

UKIP 39.0 (+23.6)
Lab 26.7 (-0.6)
Con 13.1 (-13.2)
Harold Hill Res 10.6 (+2.4)
BNP 9.5 (-13.2)
London Res 1.1 (+1.1)

North Dorset, The Stours

Con 80.2 (+11.8)
Lab 19.8 (+19.8)

[doktorb]

"Dacorum, Adeyfield West

Lib Dem 32.6 (+18.0)
Lab 25.0 (-17.5)
Con 20.6 (-22.3)
UKIP 17.3 (+17.3)
Eng Dem 4.6 (+4.6)"


LibDem gain, go from third to first....!



Havering, Gooshays

UKIP 39.0 (+23.6)
Lab 26.7 (-0.6)
Con 13.1 (-13.2)
Harold Hill Res 10.6 (+2.4)
BNP 9.5 (-13.2)
London Res 1.1 (+1.1)


First UKIP councillor in Greater London

[MaxQue]

"Dacorum, Adeyfield West

Lib Dem 32.6 (+18.0)
Lab 25.0 (-17.5)
Con 20.6 (-22.3)
UKIP 17.3 (+17.3)
Eng Dem 4.6 (+4.6)"


LibDem gain, go from third to first....!

Sure, it's better for LibDems to focus on that one than on the 2 -27 in Islington. Especially than you finished 3rd in a election to replace a LibDem, in a ward where you still have a councillor. And the ward isn't better and you still have 2 councillors there.

[minionofmidas]

I take it running a county councillor for district council is done because of the advantage in name recognition - what kind of turnouts are we talking in elections like that?

Still, it's exactly these kind of places where Labour need to improve if they want a chance at more than a narrow majority, and where they aren't doing so.

The Islington result just confirms what we already know - there's a gaggle of ~15 LD MPs who are as certainly out of Parliament on election day as the man in my signature, with the only difference being that he just about may be succeeded by the SNP rather than Labour. It doesn't really tell us anything about anywhere else.

UKIP - Uniting the Tories and BNPers!

[MaxQue]

Well, as the county elections are in May, running in a borough by-election is doing wonders to raise your profile for the next election.

The cases of the last week (Aldwick) and this week (Adeyfield) are especially significant since both county councillors won by a small margin in 2009 and got elected in a borough by-election in a ward covering the worse part for their party of their county electoral division.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are an organisational mess in Hemel for some reason.

[Silent Hunter]

Havering, Gooshays

UKIP 39.0 (+23.6)
Lab 26.7 (-0.6)
Con 13.1 (-13.2)
Harold Hill Res 10.6 (+2.4)
BNP 9.5 (-13.2)
London Res 1.1 (+1.1)


First UKIP councillor in Greater London

Due to the collapse of the Tory vote as well. Elections in May will be interesting.

[doktorb]

It may interest regular posters that "middleenglander" is collating all those by-elections to be held on May 2nd, starting with Conservative defences: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1633/local-council-elections-2nd-2013?scrollTo=64498&page=1

[joevsimp]

Havering, Gooshays

UKIP 39.0 (+23.6)
Lab 26.7 (-0.6)
Con 13.1 (-13.2)
Harold Hill Res 10.6 (+2.4)
BNP 9.5 (-13.2)
London Res 1.1 (+1.1)


First UKIP councillor in Greater London

Due to the collapse of the Tory vote as well. Elections in May will be interesting.

there aren't any in havering til next year, that seat was won by the BNP in 2006, ukip definitely have the chance to mop up a lot of the ex.BNP vote.


i'm writing this by the way from Norway, where Fremskrittsprteit are on a gradual decline from second place, I'm sure that ukip have the potential to do the same as they have over the last few years

[countydurhamboy]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

[Supersonic]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

[MaxQue]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

[countydurhamboy]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.
[/quote]
I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times



[/quote]

The only way I see gay marriage in anyway affecting 2015 is that it just toxifies the Tory brand further in that more than half the of this apparently modern Conservative Party opposed it. Same old Tories.

And the other side of the coin being the bigots opposed to it will end up giving UKIP a second look.

[Dr. Cynic]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times

The only way I see gay marriage in anyway affecting 2015 is that it just toxifies the Tory brand further in that more than half the of this apparently modern Conservative Party opposed it. Same old Tories.

And the other side of the coin being the bigots opposed to it will end up giving UKIP a second look.
[/quote]

That would be ironic. The Tories actually do something good and it costs them the next election.

Of course I get the feeling that UKIP won't actually get anywhere even if the voters flirt with them.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Tory vote has collapsed since the legalization of gay marriage.  Not held a ward since and with large declines in every ward. (discounting Dorset for obvious reasons) UKIP actually winning now.

Already noted it, but I doubt it's linked, given the decline began in January. Timing doesn't fit.

January is when it entered serious public debate though. There is nothing else new that would explain it. Note that UKIP hadn't won a single by election since the election and now they have won three in as many weeks.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Technicaaaaaaaally it's not legalised yet, but I take your point.

I think that of all the policies of this government, legalizing gay marriage finished any chances of the Tory's being in power after 2015.  I don't want the government returned but I think that is quite sad. I really hate the British public at times

The only way I see gay marriage in anyway affecting 2015 is that it just toxifies the Tory brand further in that more than half the of this apparently modern Conservative Party opposed it. Same old Tories.

And the other side of the coin being the bigots opposed to it will end up giving UKIP a second look.

That would be ironic. The Tories actually do something good and it costs them the next election.

Of course I get the feeling that UKIP won't actually get anywhere even if the voters flirt with them.
[/quote]

Vote Nigel, Get Ed will work wonders for the Tory campaign, I'm sure.

And in terms of shoring this support up, if you think about their billboards of Gordon Brown last time round, it sends shivers down my spine thinking of what they can do with the two Eds when it comes to snarky advertising.