Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

The SMOR poll out today gives Vitter an early edge:

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Jindal remains unpopular, with 42/55 approvals.

So, it's "the best of the worst situation"?

[smoltchanov]

My personal position - ABV (Anybody, But Vitter). Dardenne, Landrieu are more or less fine with me, but not Vitter, Even David Duke (who was one of his opponents in his first congressional race) is more honest. Treen (another opponent from that race) - was MUCH better, though we are very different politically. And would not for former Democratic state Representative Strain (another opponent from that particular race) Vitter wouldn't be even Congressman, much less - a Senator now.

[smoltchanov]

Guillory is running for LG.

I hope he doesn't make the runoff. Nungesser is at least genuine and more likeable, IMO. Guillory vs. Holden would be an interesting race though.

At the very least, his Senate seat will flip back; its 60%-ish Obama, IIRC.

Which type of Democrat will it be? Economically liberal and more conservative socially?

[smoltchanov]

Which type of Democrat will it be? Economically liberal and more conservative socially?

Well, outside of New Orleans, being socially conservative is almost a given .

This seat is in the middle of Acadiana, so that will almost definitely be the case.

And 60% for Obama and black majority suggest economic liberalism, or, at least, populism)))

[smoltchanov]

So in other words, expect another Republican sweep of statewide offices in 2015. Isn't the Louisiana Supreme Court elected statewide as well?

Naturally. Right now i don't see a single really strong Democratic candidate for statewide office in the state. Landrieu (he) seems to be satisfied with being Mayor, most of conservative Democrats are Republicans now (see Caldwell), and so on...

[smoltchanov]

How much more Republican should we expect the legislature to become after 2015?

Here is the current breakdown, as of this January (courtesy of Ballotpedia):

Louisiana Senate

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13

Louisiana House

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 44
independents: 2

IMHO - Senate will not change much. Never's seat is the only one, that will surely flip. Most other are either majority black or, at least, have enough of them to be more or less reliable. Even Smith's and LaFleur's seats are not too endangered while they are running..

House - +5-7 Republican. Democrats still have "too much" seats in rapidly reddening Acadiana. Some switches among few remaining conservative Democrats (Danahay?) are also possible.

[smoltchanov]

With the current situation of the Louisiana Democrats, it's going to be 15-20 years before they come back to power in the Pelican State again.

More. 30-40. When Louisiana will become close to "minority-majority state" status

[smoltchanov]

Wow. I guess the Louisiana Democrats might as well pack up their bags and move to Colorado

Present day Louisiana Democrats are mostly Black. Plus - some (not too much) white liberals in New Orlean, Baton Rouge and Shreveport. Rural Louisiana Democrats more and more become Republicans (they were always socially and foreign policy conservative, and now - much less economically populist then their ancestors). In addition - social issues are, usually, trump economy now...

[smoltchanov]

Obviously agree about Guillory's seat (though it will, probably, be taken by socially conservative Democrat) and Nevers's. But not about Ward and Johns - IMHO, both will survive.. The "question mark" for me are LeFleur and Smit's seats- both districts are, at least, somewhat Republican on presidential level, but LeFleur and Smith are talented (and not liberal) politicians....

And yes, most of remaining rural Democratic seats are in Acadiana. If i understand correctly - this area wasn't especially racist (as North Louisiana mostly was), but - is very social conservative. So, it held longer then other rural areas, but going Republican now over "abortions and gays"....

[smoltchanov]

Planned Parenthood commissioned a poll for LA. They found Republicans leading 46-41 on the state legislative ballot.

56% identify as pro-life, 26% pro-choice. Still, overall, 59% say they don't support overturning Roe vs Wade.

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

[smoltchanov]

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

I looked over the link after I posted it and saw that they actually oversampled Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Ergo, the Republicans' lead is probably a bit wider and the overall pro-life numbers are probably higher.

Thanks! But still not bad. About quarter of people - "Pro-choice", when even most of black politicians in Louisiana are either "pro-life" or, at best, "mixed".....

[smoltchanov]

I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

Large number of relatively old and conservative (including being "pro-life") "nominal Democrats"?)

[smoltchanov]

There will be several DA races to watch this fall. My uncle, Rep. Chris Hazel, is running for Rapides Parish DA; his race was highlighted.

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

[smoltchanov]

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

No, he doesn't have to forfeit his House seat.

Well, I don't live in Rapides Parish, but I hope to do some campaigning for him! Chris is in the non-Jindal faction of the party and has been accused of being anti-tea party.

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

Yeah, in fact, he was actually considering running for the House again as an Independent.

Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

Well, the run-off will have even worse turnout, so - Republican chances will only increase...

[smoltchanov]

In what should be an easy pickup in the State Senate, Rep. Ledricka Thierry (D) is running for the seat that Guillory is vacating.

Economic populist, social conservative, as typical for districts in this area?

[smoltchanov]

Edwards will most likely get into runoff, but what will he do after that? GE chances are minimal...

[smoltchanov]

Boustany is endorsing Vitter.

Somewhat strange. It always seemed to me that Boustany belonged to more moderate and pragmatic wing of the party. Can't say these words about Vitter.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

I know that....

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

Okay- correct.

I think he's asking about races that have members of the same party but from different factions running against eachother. Yes, I'm putting together a few races to watch for those too.

Exactly)))

[smoltchanov]

^ Don't know anything specific for this particular district, but, looking at filings data, i got an impression that a lot of possible challenges were "delayed" until 2019, when about 35-40% of Legislature will be term-limited. For example - Republicans left Jerry Gisclair and Mike Danahay unopposed in (approximately) R+33 and R+31 districts  (HD-54 and HD-33) (and if Danahay is a conservative (even more then few Republicans) Gisclair is a "centrist" (by Louisiana standards, not national one)). At the same time Democrats left Bryan Adams and Tom Willmott (both - "pragmatic conservatives") unopposed in HD-85 and HD-92, despite even Obama winning about 49 and more then 50% of vote there... May be Abramson case is among them too - he is term-limited in 2019, possibly - entrenched, and potential candidates simply decided to wait..

P.S. After looking at filing data i see only 3-4 Democratic House districts endangered HD-41 (almost sure flip), HD-32, HD-39, and (considerably less likely) may be HD-60, but even less -  Republican (may be - HD-103 and few other)

[smoltchanov]

The Times-Picayune, New Orleans' major paper, in something of a surprise, endorsed Vitter.

The Gambit, which is also a popular New Orleans paper, endorsed Dardenne.

Surprise. I never considered this newspaper to be especially right-wing. And i can't imagine anyone, except right-wing, to support Vitter. Dardenne - yes, Angelle - may be, but Vitter?

[smoltchanov]

I checked legislator's voting records against Shor-McCarty database for 1993-2014 period looking for ideological orientation of candidates (many of whom were legislators at some moments of this period) (in fact - this is the only almost complete "ideology oriented" data base for state legislators, that i know). Edwards (who, frequently is characterized as "conservaDem" (especially on sites like DKE)) is, in fact, THE  most liberal of present day WHITE Democratic legislators of Louisiana with rating -0.25 ("somewhat left-of-center"), despite rather conservative record on social issues (100% rating from "ProLife Louisiana" for example). So, he seems to be more of the old school "southern populist" type (they almost always were considerably more liberal on economy then on social issues). Vitter has 0.746 (solid conservative, but far from being THE most extremist among Louisiana politicians), Dardenne -  0.721 (only slightly less conservative). Angelle, alas, was parish president, Lt. Governor, PSC member, but never - legislator (IMHO - his rating would be similar).

Among Lt. Governor candidates Holden has very liberal -0.725 (many black legislators are considerably less liberal then that), Young and Nungesser never served in legislature (one is current, another - former parish president), Guillory was rather conservative (0.187) Democrat before becoming even more conservative (0.623) Republican. For SoS Schedler is slightly more "moderate" then Republican  governor candidates (2 ratings for different years give him 0.691 and 0.494 correspondingly), while Tyson has no ratings.

For AG only Landry has ratings for his congressional (he never was a state legislator) service, and it's well-known, that he is VERY conservative. Donelon (Comm. of Insurance) has rather typical for Republican candidates 0.728, Kennedy (Treasurer) never served in Legislature AFAIK, but usually is listed among relatively "moderate" Republican candidates (by THEIR standards of course..). And, finally, "Mike" Strain (Comm. of Agriculture) belongs to roughly the same camp, scoring 0.585 during his legislative service...

Of course - these numbers can't give a complete picture of ideological views of statewide candidates, but at least - they give some food for thought...