Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[windjammer]

Vitter would destroy Louisiana, if elected...

[RogueBeaver]

What are Vitter's plans anyways? At any rate I'm under the distinct impression that most of what Dems consider damage has already been done.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Louisiana voters would get exactly what they deserved if they want Vitter.

On the down-ballot statewide offices, I expect GOP sweep in 2015 and Mitch Landrieu could run, but would he want to risk losing in 2015 ?

[Miles]

What are Vitter's plans anyways? At any rate I'm under the distinct impression that most of what Dems consider damage has already been done.

Yikes, I'm afraid to ask. Yeah, but its not like the status quo is particularly desirable.

[Miles]

Dardenne is wading into the Duck Dynasty controversy:

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I mean, I don't blame Dardenne. A big part of his job as LG is tending to the tourism industry; the show is beneficial to the state's economy.

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal also vocally supported Robertson, dunno if Vitter has said anything yet.

[Miles]

Vitter wrote this on Twitter:

"The Robertsons have always made it clear they put their faith above all else. Phil is being penalized for it, and that's wrong. #DuckDynasty,"

'How'd you miss that, Rogue?

[RogueBeaver]

Probably cause I don't follow him on Twitter.

[Miles]

Probably cause I don't follow him on Twitter.

Its a joke; you're the forum Twitter guru

[DINGO Joe]

What are the chances Landrieu runs? Either way Vitter is well-positioned for the first Pub-to-Pub Mansion handoff since Reconstruction.

He's been very quiet. Ugh, don't remind me of that

Was out and about today and noticed an aggressive batch of Landrieu for Mayor signs had gone up.  Really, the opportunity to be successful is greater as mayor of New Orleans than as Governor of Louisiana.  The idea that Landrieu could drag Louisiana into the 21st Century is a bit of a pipedream.

[Miles]

Was out and about today and noticed an aggressive batch of Landrieu for Mayor signs had gone up.  Really, the opportunity to be successful is greater as mayor of New Orleans than as Governor of Louisiana.  The idea that Landrieu could drag Louisiana into the 21st Century is a bit of a pipedream.

I'm just been back in New Orleans for a few days and I'm seeing his ads on TV; I haven't been around much outside of Lakeview so I haven't seen actual signs.

Yeah, I agree with you on that, but he'd at least make it a race for Democrats.

[TX Conservative Dem]

So in other words, Landrieu won't run in 2015 and likely to run in 2019 right

[Miles]

So in other words, Landrieu won't run in 2015 and likely to run in 2019 right

Well, he said isn't running for Governor. Before 2010, though, he likewise said he would eschew a mayoral run. He's taking it 'one election at a time'; he may still take the plunge in 2015, but he's getting his ducks in line back home.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I understand that. Landrieu is likely to wait until 2019, because folks will be sick of Vitter by then.

Vitter bored in the Senate is no surprise : what if the Republicans win back the U. S. Senate in 2014 ? Vitter could get a chairmanship

[RogueBeaver]

Miles can correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC Vitter always had a self-imposed 2-term limit.

[Miles]

Miles can correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC Vitter always had a self-imposed 2-term limit.

I don't think he ever explicitly said that, but it would make sense. Even earlier this year he was pushing legislation for a three-term limit in the House and two terms in the Senate.

[Miles]

If (when) Vitter gets in, he'll have a $1.5 million head start.

We'll know more next week about his efforts to remove the PAC donation limit:

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[Miles]

Well, its currently oyster season down in Louisiana; likewise, its also looking like the world is Vitter's oyster.

If he passes on Gov., he could get a plush committee spot if the Rs take the chamber:

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Still, the committee chairmanship seems like more of a means to and end; he could use his accomplishments there to run for Gov in the future. The issue with that analysis is that he's said this is the most logical time for him to run for Gov if he ever does.

[Miles]

Whoah, check out Kennedy. He's raised $600K and has 3 mill CoH. Maybe he's not conceding the Gov race; this should at least worry Vitter to somewhat.

[RogueBeaver]

If he runs, could he beat Vitter in a primary? Correct me if I'm wrong but a few years ago I had the impression he was between Dardenne and Vitter ideologically. At any rate either one is preferable to Vitter.

[Miles]

He's closer to Dardenne ideologically than Vitter on that spectrum, IMO.

Ergo, I have a feeling he'd be pulling more votes from Dardenne. I could actually see a lot of Blue Dogs and seniors supporting him. He could make the runoff by courting Democrats, as Edwards isn't exactly a top candidate for them.

[TX Conservative Dem]

So in other words, expect another Republican sweep of statewide offices in 2015. Isn't the Louisiana Supreme Court elected statewide as well?

[Miles]

So in other words, expect another Republican sweep of statewide offices in 2015. Isn't the Louisiana Supreme Court elected statewide as well?

Yeah, for better or worse. The most recent 2012 election being towards the latter term in that dichotomy.

[smoltchanov]

So in other words, expect another Republican sweep of statewide offices in 2015. Isn't the Louisiana Supreme Court elected statewide as well?

Naturally. Right now i don't see a single really strong Democratic candidate for statewide office in the state. Landrieu (he) seems to be satisfied with being Mayor, most of conservative Democrats are Republicans now (see Caldwell), and so on...

[Frodo]

How much more Republican should we expect the legislature to become after 2015?

Here is the current breakdown, as of this January (courtesy of Ballotpedia):

Louisiana Senate

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13

Louisiana House

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 44
independents: 2