Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[smoltchanov]

Not bad for Louisiana, where a majority of Democrats is rather solidly pro-life... And not bad legislative numbers - Republicans control greater percentage of seats in Legislature now.

I looked over the link after I posted it and saw that they actually oversampled Baton Rouge and New Orleans. Ergo, the Republicans' lead is probably a bit wider and the overall pro-life numbers are probably higher.

Thanks! But still not bad. About quarter of people - "Pro-choice", when even most of black politicians in Louisiana are either "pro-life" or, at best, "mixed".....

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Planned Parenthood commissioned a poll for LA. They found Republicans leading 46-41 on the state legislative ballot.

56% identify as pro-life, 26% pro-choice. Still, overall, 59% say they don't support overturning Roe vs Wade.

Huh.  I always kinda thought abortion polls were bulls**t regardless of who they're commissioned by and regardless of what the numbers are.  Not a lot of people support zero restrictions on abortion, but not a lot of people seem willing to ban it outright, either.  And labels like "pro-choice" and "pro-life" are kind of loaded terms in the grand scheme of things.

[Miles]

Huh.  I always kinda thought abortion polls were bulls**t regardless of who they're commissioned by and regardless of what the numbers are.  Not a lot of people support zero restrictions on abortion, but not a lot of people seem willing to ban it outright, either.  And labels like "pro-choice" and "pro-life" are kind of loaded terms in the grand scheme of things.

Semantics is a big part of it, too:

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Thanks! But still not bad. About quarter of people - "Pro-choice", when even most of black politicians in Louisiana are either "pro-life" or, at best, "mixed".....

I'd really like to see crosstabs for this. I'm not sure if a majority of Democrats are pro-life, but many of us here are, likely more than any other state. Independents here tend to skew younger (and obviously less black). I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

Large number of relatively old and conservative (including being "pro-life") "nominal Democrats"?)

[Miles]

I really wouldn't be surprised if Independents were more pro-choice than Democrats.

Large number of relatively old and conservative (including being "pro-life") "nominal Democrats"?)

Yeah. And as you said, blacks are generally pro-life and relatively few blacks are Independent.

[TX Conservative Dem]

When Louisiana Governors are sworn into office, do they still get the 19-gun salute and flyovers following the oath of office or before the ceremony?

[Miles]

When Louisiana Governors are sworn into office, do they still get the 19-gun salute and flyovers following the oath of office or before the ceremony?

I think so.

[Miles]

There will be several DA races to watch this fall. My uncle, Rep. Chris Hazel, is running for Rapides Parish DA; his race was highlighted.

[smoltchanov]

There will be several DA races to watch this fall. My uncle, Rep. Chris Hazel, is running for Rapides Parish DA; his race was highlighted.

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

[Miles]

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

No, he doesn't have to forfeit his House seat.

Well, I don't live in Rapides Parish, but I hope to do some campaigning for him! Chris is in the non-Jindal faction of the party and has been accused of being anti-tea party.

[smoltchanov]

Heis not going to surrender his state House seat to make race, isn't he? And will you vote for uncle or party???))))

No, he doesn't have to forfeit his House seat.

Well, I don't live in Rapides Parish, but I hope to do some campaigning for him! Chris is in the non-Jindal faction of the party and has been accused of being anti-tea party.

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

[Miles]

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

Yeah, in fact, he was actually considering running for the House again as an Independent.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. And Roy is moderate-conservative Democrat, isn't he?

Yeah, in fact, he was actually considering running for the House again as an Independent.

Thanks!

[TX Conservative Dem]

Jindal's still unpopular?

How did that happen?

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal's still unpopular?

How did that happen?

Income tax elimination blew up on the tarmac.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Jindal's still unpopular?

How did that happen?

Income tax elimination blew up on the tarmac.

Did Jindal actually get anywhere with that?

[RogueBeaver]

Jindal's still unpopular?

How did that happen?

Income tax elimination blew up on the tarmac.

Did Jindal actually get anywhere with that?

Obviously not.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I've also heard most of the legislators have been ignoring Jindal lately since he's a lame duck

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Jindal's still unpopular?

How did that happen?

Income tax elimination blew up on the tarmac.

Did Jindal actually get anywhere with that?

Obviously not.

I meant in terms of one of the statehouses approving it.  The GOP has a healthy majority in both chambers, plus conservadems, though I'm not sure what's needed for proposals like this to go through.

[Miles]

I meant in terms of one of the statehouses approving it.  The GOP has a healthy majority in both chambers, plus conservadems, though I'm not sure what's needed for proposals like this to go through.

No; there was bipartisan pushback. Democrats obviously didn't like it. A lot of legislative Republicans thought Jindal tried to sideline them and also feared political backlash from such a drastic change.

[Miles]

Though its happened to a lesser degree in past years, look for Vitter to be especially involved in the legislative session now that he's running. If he can influence legislation now, it makes it easier for him down the road should he win.

The article outlines the painfully effective financial network he's cultivated over the years and his involvement in recruiting far-right candidates.

[Miles]

Well, the New Orleans mayoral race results should be worth watching. If Landrieu is forced into a runoff with Bagneris or wins outright by a underwhelming margin, he may think twice about running for Governor. I'd say the odds of a runoff are fairly low though, maybe 20-25%.


Last election, Landrieu carried all but one precinct; its hard to see how the electorate swings that much against him, as he's generally been a good mayor.

[Miles]

Early votes are 55-41 for Mitch.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

55-41 is pretty low for him, no?

[Miles]

55-41 is pretty low for him, no?

He got 66% with an noncompetitive field last time. Bagneris has made him sweat a bit this time.


Anywho, with 15% in, its up to 60-36.