Florida 2022 Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Crist called DeSantis "DeSatan" and he wants Vaccine Passports. What a way to lose an Election.

I am beginning to care less about if Republicans win the House or Senate. I actually would trade a Democratic House & Senate for a win by DeSantis, Abbott and Kemp.

Show me your and other GOP outrage posts when Trump called opponents much worse names...

Anyway, doesn't matter, Crist is not going to win one way or the other.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist called DeSantis "DeSatan" and he wants Vaccine Passports. What a way to lose an Election.

I am beginning to care less about if Republicans win the House or Senate. I actually would trade a Democratic House & Senate for a win by DeSantis, Abbott and Kemp.

Show me your and other GOP outrage posts when Trump called opponents much worse names...

Anyway, doesn't matter, Crist is not going to win one way or the other.

Lol Crist is down in Impact polls 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that's not safe territory for DeSantis thats danger zone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You will see

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1571231134482153472

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio isn't winning by 15

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

I don't think it's possible, and polls have shown DeSantis running ahead of Rubio, not the other way around. Demings is a strong candidate, and I think she will hold Rubio to a single-digit margin. We must also remember that he won by "only" eight points in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

16% black, but add in liberal Whites and Hispanics.

Just look at the NYT precinct map, Dems are mostly down to the bare bones in places like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami as is. A 10 point R win is realistic, maybe even a 12 point R win, but a 15 point R win would take extraordinary circumstances which don't exist in the FL-Senate race.

Rmbr too Rubio basically faced a dud of an opponent in 2016; had Dems taken the race more seriously his overperformance would've been a lot more modest.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

16% black, but add in liberal Whites and Hispanics.

Just look at the NYT precinct map, Dems are mostly down to the bare bones in places like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami as is. A 10 point R win is realistic, maybe even a 12 point R win, but a 15 point R win would take extraordinary circumstances which don't exist in the FL-Senate race.

Rmbr too Rubio basically faced a dud of an opponent in 2016; had Dems taken the race more seriously his overperformance would've been a lot more modest.

In 2018 the FL Electorate was 66 % White / 34 % Non-White
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida
It's going to be interesting how that Electorate looks when the Exits come out on E-Night.

In 2018 13 % of Blacks turned out / 15 % of Hispanics.

However I think Demings isn't an exciting Candidate as Gillum was.

Minorities are usually not voting by that large of Numbers in Midterms. I am curious to see if 2018 was just an abberation or if this is the new norm. Really hard to tell for now.

I actually think the "Bussing" (Martha's Vinyard) Immigration Issue will help DeSantis because it has put the Border Issue back to the forefront. DeSantis is such a smart cucumber.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

16% black, but add in liberal Whites and Hispanics.

Just look at the NYT precinct map, Dems are mostly down to the bare bones in places like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami as is. A 10 point R win is realistic, maybe even a 12 point R win, but a 15 point R win would take extraordinary circumstances which don't exist in the FL-Senate race.

Rmbr too Rubio basically faced a dud of an opponent in 2016; had Dems taken the race more seriously his overperformance would've been a lot more modest.

In 2018 the FL Electorate was 66 % White / 34 % Non-White
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida
It's going to be interesting how that Electorate looks when the Exits come out on E-Night.

In 2018 13 % of Blacks turned out / 15 % of Hispanics.

However I think Demings isn't an exciting Candidate as Gillum was.

Minorities are usually not voting by that large of Numbers in Midterms. I am curious to see if 2018 was just an abberation or if this is the new norm. Really hard to tell for now.

I actually think the "Bussing" (Martha's Vinyard) Immigration Issue will help DeSantis because it has put the Border Issue back to the forefront. DeSantis is such a smart cucumber.

Here's a quick spreadsheet I threw together quickly:



Overall, Dem areas def tend to have lower turnout than GOP areas in general. What is interesting is generally it seems like contrary to popular belief, minority heavy districts that lean both R and D both ahve poor turnout and also bad dropoff in midtersm (i.e the Cuban districts). Every district towards the upper part of this list in terms of turnout is basically the stereotyped as a largely white district full of retirees and as expected they all lean R to varying degrees.

If hypothetically, turnout was equalized, Florida would have much less of a stubborn R bent and Dems would've won it in 2016 and 2018 with 2020 being a very close call depending upon how you calculate it. However, practically, equalized turnout in Florida won't happen for a variety of reasons.

While there does seem to be a slight correllation between poorest turnout districts also having the biggest midterm drop-offs, it doesn't seem super strong nor particularly lopsided towards one side. Generally though, Florida is def a case of where Rs have the more reliable base any way you cut it. Honeslty from this data, it seems that black communities didn't have all that bad of a turnout dropoff even though their turnout is generally poor (FL-20, FL-24, FL-10, FL-02, FL-05 all held ok turnout wise in 2018). It seems to be Hispanic areas that had the worst dropoffs but liberal and conservative alike.

[2016]

Florida had 8M+ Turnout in 2018. It jumped from 51 % Turnout in 2014 to 65 % Turnout in 2018. The Reason: Donald Trump. Say what you want about him but he brings people out on both sides. And I think FL is the one State where Republicans might have a bigger Voter Base to draw upon

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida had 8M+ Turnout in 2018. It jumped from 51 % Turnout in 2014 to 65 % Turnout in 2018. The Reason: Donald Trump. Say what you want about him but he brings people out on both sides. And I think FL is the one State where Republicans might have a bigger Voter Base to draw upon

Tbf, basically all parts of the country saw a huge turnout jump between 2014 and 2018 to the point where Florida isn't even statistically notable. I think Trump and general polarization has made any sort of low turnout 2014 style midterm basically impossible in the near future.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

16% black, but add in liberal Whites and Hispanics.

Just look at the NYT precinct map, Dems are mostly down to the bare bones in places like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami as is. A 10 point R win is realistic, maybe even a 12 point R win, but a 15 point R win would take extraordinary circumstances which don't exist in the FL-Senate race.

Rmbr too Rubio basically faced a dud of an opponent in 2016; had Dems taken the race more seriously his overperformance would've been a lot more modest.

Don't add in Hispanics. I don't know how one could make such a ridiculous statement after 2020. Florida Hispanics are by no means maxed out for the GOP -- by composition, they are probably the single best large Hispanic population for Republicans of any state (excl maybe Texas depending on your thoughts on Puerto Rican v. Mexican trends + a couple of other factors there) and.

Democrats are not down to "the bare bones" in Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami etc. Yes, Democrats underperform how they do nationally in metros in all But that does not mean that we should expect Democrats to reverse that underperformance, or that Democrats don't have further room to fall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

Florida isn't really that black though, just 16%. It's 78% White or Hispanic.

16% black, but add in liberal Whites and Hispanics.

Just look at the NYT precinct map, Dems are mostly down to the bare bones in places like Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami as is. A 10 point R win is realistic, maybe even a 12 point R win, but a 15 point R win would take extraordinary circumstances which don't exist in the FL-Senate race.

Rmbr too Rubio basically faced a dud of an opponent in 2016; had Dems taken the race more seriously his overperformance would've been a lot more modest.

Don't add in Hispanics. I don't know how one could make such a ridiculous statement after 2020. Florida Hispanics are by no means maxed out for the GOP -- by composition, they are probably the single best large Hispanic population for Republicans of any state (excl maybe Texas depending on your thoughts on Puerto Rican v. Mexican trends + a couple of other factors there) and.

Democrats are not down to "the bare bones" in Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami etc. Yes, Democrats underperform how they do nationally in metros in all But that does not mean that we should expect Democrats to reverse that underperformance, or that Democrats don't have further room to fall.

I'm not saying Rs don't have room to grow, they certainly do. It's just a 15 point win would be a 12 point swing on what was already a really solid performance by Trump in 2020 in a state that is still pretty polarized at the end of the day. A 12 point overperformance may be realistic in a more homogenous state with a history of ticket splitting such as NH or ME but in FL you have too many super solid Dem voting blocks and super solid R voting blocks that there isn't enough fluctuation to allow that to occur. And plus this is a federal Senate race, it's impossible for Rubio to distance himself from the national party even if he wanted to.

The only recent Senate races in a large diverse state where the incumbent outran partisanship by over even just 6 or 8% were races where the minority party literally did not run a serious opponent (NY-Sen 2016, TX-Sen 2014, OH-Sen 2016, OH-Sen 2018, GA-Sen 2016, and yes FL-Sen 2016). Even though FL-Sen is nowhere near a top priority for Dems this cycle, Demmings is a serious challenger and is running a serious campaign.

*Now I do think if we have a huge R wave nationally with massive turnout differentials, a Rubio + 15 win is possible but DeSantis + 10 suggests a much closer national environment and a huge R wave seems less probable at this point*

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also for any other state other than Florida, people would be getting hammered for a 12 point overperformance of 2020 Pres. Oz + 11 most here would consider to be unrealistic. Or Laxalt + 10. Or even Budd + 13. Yet in Florida Rubio + 15 is in question?

It really seems like Trump's strong 2020 performance in the state in 2020 has really blown things out of proportion a bit. At the end of the day Trump won Florida by 3% which yes is very impressive given the 2020 national environment, but that's still only roughly 4 points to the right of all these other perennial swing states where the Senate races are supposedly tossups.

Atlas tends to overreact to singular results too much. It's like how on the flip side many have written off Georgia as a D win in 2024 for Pres even though it was only Biden + 0.2 in a nearly D+5 national enivornment lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's very close it's 51/45 that isn't safe does Progressive Moderate know that VBM and Early voting is begining in early Oct, how did we win AK a red state and NY 19 Biden had 45% Approvals then, Approvals Lie as I have always said Trump was supposed to lose seats and he was at 45/53 in the Rassy polls he net gained H seats 51/45 was the same exact margin Crist was down to Scott in Sept and he lost by 1 and that was an R plus 5 yr we lost IL in 2014, it's an upset if we win but it's not over

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1564950298346545152?s=21&t=WWM15TbkaUZ8_...

Awww, as if our majority wasn't close enough already. Really should stay till January. He's not going to win the governorship anyways.

I expect he would have been ordered to stay on if NY-19 and AK-AL had gone to the GOP, but since they didn't, him leaving is relatively safe.

Do you know in Impact polls Crist is down 50/47 and Demings down 50/48 that is danger🛑zone you think DeSantis is gonna win by 10 no he's not look at the polls me, wbrooks and Minnesota Mike post about FL DeSantis lead in one poll by 8 and that's not Impact

I should know I am 1/3 posting polls but wbrooks posted the FL poll

I don't Trust "impact polls" or whatever random org you cook up any given day.

DeSantis wins by 10, Rubio by 15.

I’m skeptical a 15 point Rubio win is even possible, especially since Black voters provide Dems a pretty hard floor and he isn’t getting that crossover support he saw in 2016 again with them.

DeSantis won't under-perform Rubio.

[2016]

It's very close it's 51/45 that isn't safe does Progressive Moderate know that VBM and Early voting is begining in early Oct, how did we win AK a red state and NY 19 Biden had 45% Approvals then, Approvals Lie as I have always said Trump was supposed to lose seats and he was at 45/53 in the Rassy polls he net gained H seats 51/45 was the same exact margin Crist was down to Scott in Sept and he lost by 1 and that was an R plus 5 yr we lost IL in 2014, it's an upset if we win but it's not over

You don't get it, again!
Yes, Donald Trumps Job Approval was 45/53 Nationally in 2018 BUT in Florida his Job Approval was actually 51/48.
Bidens Job Approval might be around 45 % Nationally but in Florida he is only between 39-41 which is why Crist & Demings are struggling to get over their 45-47 ceiling.

Call me when Crist and Demings have hit 49 or 50.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once we start getting early vote numbers instead of polls I will talk, but clearly Emerson is showing an R bias and Impact is showing a D bias I won't concede this race until we get actual results not polls it's a 303 map anyways this is wave insurance is

Don't say Rs have the advantage in Early vote we won Red state AK and NY 19 Molinaro came back on Ryan in same day vote not early votes

[2016]

Once we start getting early vote numbers instead of polls I will talk, but clearly Emerson is showing an R bias and Impact is showing a D bias I won't concede this race until we get actual results not polls it's a 303 map anyways this is wave insurance is

Don't say Rs have the advantage in Early vote we won Red state AK and NY 19 Molinaro came back on Ryan in same day vote not early votes

I am not saying that Republicans have an early Vote Advantage, Democrats will have that Advantage there is no question about that.

However I will say this: The D's Advantage will not as big as it was in 2020. The D's will not win the VBM Vote by 70-30 or 80-20 we saw in the Pandemic Election in 2020.
Coronavirus is over, no one talks about it. It's at the Bottom of every Poll.

New York & Alaska were Special Elections where Turnout was considerably lower and when it comes to Alaska that Race was all about Sarah Palin as much as anything else. The R-D Split in Alaska was 60-40 in Republicans favour. Nick Begich would have won the Race very convincingly.

Also, you cannot compare Alaska & New York to Florida.
Florida also has 9 Days of early In-Person Voting starting Oct. 29 which will cancel out some of the VBM Vote.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMZiegler/status/1571921658411384833

And a powerful ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIpzXBneDFQ