Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

Just starting this since we'll have elections for Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General.

Rumors of Malcolm Kenyatta for Auditor General against DeFoor. Unsure if anyone has declared for Treasurer against Garrity.

Has anyone seen anything about DeFoor and Garrity confirming re-election? I would assume so, but I don't think I've seen anything official?

Garrity at the least should be easy to beat; Dem really needs to go in on how batsh*t insane she is.

[wbrocks67]

Depasquale has been rumored to be interested in AG, though I don't know if he makes sense for that one.

I fully expect Lamb to jump in any minute for AG.

[wbrocks67]

Updated

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JuliaTerruso/status/1633850799364112384

[wbrocks67]

I actually haven't seen anything yet about either Garrity or DeFoor announcing for 2024. I guess it's still early and I fully expect both of them to run again, but figured they would've said something by now.

[wbrocks67]

I actually haven't seen anything yet about either Garrity or DeFoor announcing for 2024.

Have these 2 achieved anything major in the past 3 years, or just used their pulpit to harp on GOP pet issues while collecting the paychecks ?

Both have largely been silent, I would imagine most normie voters have no idea who either of them are. Garrity was in support of 1/6 / protesters that day though, so she has the most to come back to haunt her. She was way more Trumpy AFAIK than DeFoor, but also could just be because DeFoor is more silent than she is.

[wbrocks67]

As of this morning, 781K mail ballots requested for next week's primary, with 356K being returned.

Dems return rate is 46.1% while Reps is 44.7%.

Ds strongest in Allegheny, with a 51% return rate compared to Rs 43%.

Others:
Philly - Ds 42%, Rs 42%
Bucks - Ds 56%, Rs 53%
Chester - Ds 51%, Rs 46%
Montco - Ds 42%, Rs 39%
Delaware - Rs 43%, Ds 42%

[wbrocks67]

I actually haven't seen anything yet about either Garrity or DeFoor announcing for 2024.

Have these 2 achieved anything major in the past 3 years, or just used their pulpit to harp on GOP pet issues while collecting the paychecks ?

Both have largely been silent, I would imagine most normie voters have no idea who either of them are. Garrity was in support of 1/6 / protesters that day though, so she has the most to come back to haunt her. She was way more Trumpy AFAIK than DeFoor, but also could just be because DeFoor is more silent than she is.

Do you think DeFoor will try to attain higher office?

Maybe later, but I would be surprised if he was to jump in this cycle. The problem for him and Garrity is that they've made basically no impact since 2020; no one outside of people like us knows who they are, so they are still very easily definable... which will especially be an issue for Garrity in her re-election (if she plans to run again)

[wbrocks67]

Very curious how this PASC race will end up on the GOP side.

5% in and Carluccio at 59%, McCollough at 41%. Carluccio is the more "sane" one even though she's still MAGA. McCollough though was the one who was going to throw away the 2020 election results.

[wbrocks67]

Very curious how this PASC race will end up on the GOP side.

5% in and Carluccio at 59%, McCollough at 41%. Carluccio is the more "sane" one even though she's still MAGA. McCollough though was the one who was going to throw away the 2020 election results.

Wow, Carluccio might actually lose to the election denier. 52.2-47.8 now with tons of election day out.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty stunning Dem advantage in statewide turnout. Philly mayor and Allegheny stuff helped obviously, but the disparity is still pretty big.

Dem statewide turnout is at 1.04M, while Reps is at 821K. Dems is likely to grow a bit more as more Philly VBM come in.

To put in perspective, Dem turnout for the 2022 primary was 1.28M (GOP 1.35M). The fact that an off year election had that small of a dip is pretty incredible. I'll have to dive into the non-Philly county #s to see, because I feel like those will tell the true story.

[wbrocks67]

Is Carluccio a good candidate for the general?

She's better than McCullough obviously for the GOP, but IIRC, she's also espoused some election denying rhetoric in the past, so I think there's still a lot that can be used against her.

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County is just so bad for the GOP; it's been for a while but usually they still keep up with turnout % (they did in 2021), but this year, 31% of Dems showed up, vs only 24% of GOP.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/justin_sweitzer/status/1664250858312286208

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone announced for treasurer? It seems like Malcolm Kenyatta has the Auditor General primary in the bag, the Attorney General race might be the only interesting one this time.

which is pretty surprising, since Garrity should be the easiest target.

[wbrocks67]

From what I can tell, neither Garrity or DeFoor have announced their re-election plans yet. I fully expect both will run but seems weird they haven't said anything.

[wbrocks67]

Planned Parenthood doing a 7-figure ad buy for Dems for Supreme Court race

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/planned-parenthoods-political-arm-ramps-up-ad-campaign-focused-on-pa-supreme-court-race/

Haven't seen much else though in terms of candidate spending

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone announced for treasurer? It seems like Malcolm Kenyatta has the Auditor General primary in the bag, the Attorney General race might be the only interesting one this time.

ask and you shall receive!

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1706641859076911476

[wbrocks67]

He also knows ball, rightfully tying her to 1/6:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1706659982387597570

[wbrocks67]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

[wbrocks67]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

He just hasn't gained steam. It's not like a Krasner or Adams situation. Parker would be the first female mayor so she already has an extra boost, and she also is basically fine with both liberal and moderate voters at this point. Oh has no real constituency to get himself above the usual 15-18% the GOP gets imo.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

Yep! And McLaughlin was <1% from winning the Supreme Court race too.

[wbrocks67]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

[wbrocks67]

Will try and update this each day; not a whole lot returned yet and most of the big D areas (Allegheny, Philly, etc. have only reported a few ballots returned)

PA VBM update

Total requested: 890,919
Dem requested: 641,392 (72.0%)
Rep requested: 177,499 (19.9%)

Total returned: 17,515
Dem returned: 11,629 (66.4%)
Rep returned: 4,728 (27.0%)

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2022:
1.44M requested (985K Dem, 303K Rep)

1.18M returned
Dems 819K (69.2%)
Reps 252K (21.3%)