wait, is CA going to SWING R?

[Calthrina950]

The wrath of Crucial Imperial County strikes

Is this a reference to how Biden did worse in Imperial County than Clinton this year? I certainly do agree that the swing to Trump among Hispanic and Asian voters is why California did not swing as much to the left as had been thought by many prior to the election.

[Calthrina950]

Trump did much better with foreign-born Asians than US-born Asians, especially those with low English proficiency levels. That accounts for the slight swing towards Trump among SOME Asian ethnic groups (mostly Vietnamese-Americans).

Of course, Biden still got the overwhelming majority of the Asian vote in CA (74%) and nationwide (68%).

How ironic is this? That Donald Trump, who talked about "s***hole countries", who made demands for America to "Build the Wall", who implemented an immigration ban on Muslim countries, who introduced a greatly expanded "family separation" policy, who made negative comments about a Hispanic judge and a Muslim Gold Star family, who talked about "his African-American"...did better with nonwhite voters than in 2016 and posted the best performance for a Republican among them in years? And the "slight" swing towards Trump translated into a much more considerable one downballot, with the victories of Young Kim and Michelle Steel.

[Calthrina950]

Illinois and New York are not done counting. New York has over a million uncounted ballots that will help Biden a lot.

Regarding California and Hawaii, Hillary probably maxed out support (percentage wise)

Biden's currently at 63.8% of the vote, which is over 2% more than Hillary. The D candidate's percentage of the popular vote has increased every election since 1992. It's just that 45's also doing a little under 3% better than he did last time, so California will swing R by around 0.3% or 0.4% when all the votes are counted.

But yeah, the sharp R swings in Santa Clara and Los Angeles are a bit ominous for the Ds, as are the R rebounds in SoCal House races.

It's ominous if California swings R (For minority appeal and/or maxed vote) and it's ominous if California swings D (For the PV/EV vote gap).

California does wrong no matter what

It certainly seems that way. Just like how Republicans are celebrating the victories of Kim and Steel, declaring that some Californians are "waking up" to the dangers of socialism and far-leftism, but will then denigrate the state and its residents at the next juncture, and call for its votes to be excluded from the national popular vote count. There's no sense of rationality to it. Nevertheless, I do think that it's obvious the minority swing to Trump limited the extent to which Biden could gain in California over Clinton. He's obviously still garnering a higher percentage of the vote then her, thanks to the consolidation of the third-party vote and his improvements among white voters, but Trump did better in Imperial County this year, gained several percentage points in Los Angeles County, and managed to increase his support in Orange County also.