wait, is CA going to SWING R?

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327472275298398208

[BudgieForce]

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If the Latino swing is as real as it appears, it's honestly remarkable that a plurality Latino state like California only swung 1 point R. Just goes to show how little appeal Republicans have here.

[John Dule]

Statistical noise.

[Kamala's side hoe]

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

Hot take: increased GOTV efforts resulted in right-leaning/anti-establishment, low-propensity Latino and Asian voters who normally wouldn’t bother voting in a Titanium D state to turn out.

[AGA]

I knew that California would trend R.

[cvparty]

probably good for dems that most of the states shifting R are non-competitive

[Ye We Can]

The Clinton bump in Arkansas was real.

[Bootes Void]

Illinois is shifting R? Looks like the Obama effect is wearing off

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Remember when this forum was worried about California continuing to swing left because it would skew the gap further between the national popular vote & national electoral vote?

Now we're supposed to be stunned that California might be swinging to the right because....I don't know? A sign of things to come with Dems future appeal to Hispanics/Asians?

California can do no right in Atlas' eyes.


Meanwhile, this is the 3rd election that a candidate got 70% in LA County, the 4th election a Dem ever won OC, the biggest win for a Dem in San Diego County since 1936, the best Dem performance in Kern County since 1976 & one of the best showings the Dem candidate ever had in the Inland Empire (Speaking purely about presidential elections for these)

[ottermax]

I'm skeptical about the CA swing because the vast majority of the state did swing towards Biden. It looks like the right-ward swing is rooted in LA County or San Bernardino County which would require some precinct exploration which the LATimes has posted if anyone is curious about. Most of Northern California swung left, except San Francisco and Alameda... which might just be a reversion to the mean or statistical noise at such high percentages (although it would be interesting to see if there are localized swings in POC areas which both SF and Alameda have - in particular slightly more working class than the rest of the Bay Area)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm skeptical about the CA swing because the vast majority of the state did swing towards Biden. It looks like the right-ward swing is rooted in LA County or San Bernardino County which would require some precinct exploration which the LATimes has posted if anyone is curious about. Most of Northern California swung left, except San Francisco and Alameda... which might just be a reversion to the mean or statistical noise at such high percentages (although it would be interesting to see if there are localized swings in POC areas which both SF and Alameda have - in particular slightly more working class than the rest of the Bay Area)

Biden is currently getting the same margin in San Bernardino County that Hillary got (10.6%)

[ottermax]

I'm skeptical about the CA swing because the vast majority of the state did swing towards Biden. It looks like the right-ward swing is rooted in LA County or San Bernardino County which would require some precinct exploration which the LATimes has posted if anyone is curious about. Most of Northern California swung left, except San Francisco and Alameda... which might just be a reversion to the mean or statistical noise at such high percentages (although it would be interesting to see if there are localized swings in POC areas which both SF and Alameda have - in particular slightly more working class than the rest of the Bay Area)

Biden is currently getting the same margin in San Bernardino County that Hillary got (10.6%)

News to me! I'm wondering if we need to wait until a few weeks from now after all the mail ballots have arrived and they have finished counting. Nothing seems as dramatic this year as two years ago but maybe the late, late ballots will shift Democratic like in 2018, although it didn't seem that way. Clearly in SB it did since I last checked!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This was also the first year that there were any D->R House flips in California since 1998.

[ottermax]

This was also the first year that there were any D->R House flips in California since 1998.

Could this year's trends just be a simple reversion to a mean of sorts?

[Kamala's side hoe]

I'm skeptical about the CA swing because the vast majority of the state did swing towards Biden. It looks like the right-ward swing is rooted in LA County or San Bernardino County which would require some precinct exploration which the LATimes has posted if anyone is curious about. Most of Northern California swung left, except San Francisco and Alameda... which might just be a reversion to the mean or statistical noise at such high percentages (although it would be interesting to see if there are localized swings in POC areas which both SF and Alameda have - in particular slightly more working class than the rest of the Bay Area)

Both Santa Clara and Los Angeles swung ~5% R, but Biden still noticeably improved on Hillary’s raw vote margina in both counties due to increased turnout.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Illinois is shifting R? Looks like the Obama effect is wearing off

HRC had a connection to the state too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hawaii also swung to Trump?

[iceman]

why is California still not R swing in the atlas map?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I live in Cali, and the R trend was a backlash in the suburbs to SF liberal Pelosi holding onto stimulus too long. Of course LA, SF and Oakland and Sacramento kept the state 65/35 Biden, but the suburban districts that took a left turn in 2018, went right

But, if a stimulus is passed those trends will be reversed, but there hasn't been a stimulus. Alot of those suburbs like Orange County have Latinos in them

[wbrocks67]

Illinois is shifting R? Looks like the Obama effect is wearing off

HRC had a connection to the state too.

IL is also not done counting

[Badger]

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

Hot take: increased GOTV efforts resulted in right-leaning/anti-establishment, low-propensity Latino and Asian voters who normally wouldn’t bother voting in a Titanium D state to turn out.

This, combined with a dead cat bounce

[If my soul was made of stone]

The wrath of Crucial Imperial County strikes

[Calthrina950]

The wrath of Crucial Imperial County strikes

Is this a reference to how Biden did worse in Imperial County than Clinton this year? I certainly do agree that the swing to Trump among Hispanic and Asian voters is why California did not swing as much to the left as had been thought by many prior to the election.

[Alcibiades]

Hawaii also swung to Trump?

Typical pro-incumbent swing, plus perhaps improvement with Asians.