This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Blair]

A strange Q- is there a reason why the seafarers in P&O aren’t in the RMT? I thought it was the successor to the old NUS.

[CumbrianLefty]

Has anybody worked out that Ted Heath "joke" from Rachel Reeves yet?

(though overall, it was a strong performance - as with her post-Budget one in the autumn)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has anybody worked out that Ted Heath "joke" from Rachel Reeves yet?

Probably version one was 'Anthony Barber' but it got changed to the PM of the day because who remembers who he was now?

(though overall, it was a strong performance - as with her post-Budget one in the autumn)

She's clearly had voice-coaching and it has helped a lot. That's a good thing - there's no shame in learning vocal projection, it isn't as if it comes naturally.

[Blair]

I’m showing my age but even I don’t know why Anthony Barber was!

I could tell she was going to say Ted Heath and it made me chuckle because well people really only remember him for one thing.

[Blair]

It's nearly two years since Keir was elected & it's been a rather interesting time so I thought I'd bore everyone with my thoughts on it.

The Good: The two main objectives for 2021 were briefed out as being to tackle anti-Semitism within the party & restore trust, specifically around issues on security. Both would have been a central objection too if Long-Bailey had won (the closest she came to criticising JC was around issues of foreign policy)

Both have broadly seen a good deal of progress; the debate at Labour Conference in 2021 & louise Ellman re-joining was a significant moment- there are ofc still issues of trust around AS but the work has been done.

Politically Keir seems to broadly have a Shadow Cabinet that he trusts & which works well- the most important move being Rachel Reeves as Shadow Chancellor who deserves some credit for making the Governments life difficult over the past 6 months- but she clearly had an easier task than Dodds.

Most important is that Reeves has allowed for some spending interventions; noticeably the £28 billion on climate change & the windfall tax on oil & gas companies. The latter has allowed Labour to have some success over energy prices (but much like the Government they will have to go to a more generous position when the big hike comes in the winter) She has the benefit of a close relationship with Keir, the wider PLP and the lobby- and isn't seen as a leadership contender. It is rare for this relationship to work in Labour politics!.

Other promotions in the Shadow Cabinet have worked well; Lisa Nandy at levelling up, Lammy at the FCDO & despite my doubts Streeting at health- there are still a few quirks & people who are under utilised (Emily Thornberry for one) I wouldn't be shocked if there's one more reshuffle with 1-2 changes. Keir was quite good at getting rid of people who were failing to make an impact while doing so in a way that still kept the PLP together.

The party appears much better at responding quickly- the response to P&O last week was very strong (I would put money on Lou Haigh being one of those to get promoted) and there is a sharpest and clarity in the parties communications that wasn't there a year ago.

Labour has a narrow[ing] lead in the opinion polls, and more importantly is doing well on the questions it has always struggled- namely who do you trust on the economy, crime & immigration, and do you want a Conservative or Labour Government. The two recent by-elections were both moderately good (if Bexley had been in January imo I reckon Labour would have won) and showed some progress.

The Bad: The party is still in a rather weak state; it's not only broke but has just undergone a rather large scale clear out of staff. These things can make a difference and can turn a good general election night into one that is quite meh. I'm not sure the party has a good list of candidates to run in target wards & the councillor selections in London (a good way of seeing future MPs from both parties) suggest it's the same sort of people.

The party has been slow to respond to concerns specifically from Muslim Labour members and there is still a rather ham-fisted approach to all BAME outreach- the way of 'securing' the vote of say a seat with a large number of Sikhs is to send the Leader to a Gurdwara for a day, and so forth. We saw this with the 'break class in case of emergency' use of Modi in a leaflet in Batley- which in turn will cause problems in other seats where Modi/BJP is popular.

Their is still a bad relationship with the major unions & an awful one with UNITE- who fund the party quite lavishly & do so annually. The problem with rich private donors is that it's very hard to get them to set up a direct debit! 

Keir's personal ratings are still relatively weak; he was appearing somewhere between Miliband & Corbyn in the summer, but appears to be climbing back to somewhere between -20 and +5 depending on the polling and the question. He is not a politician who will inspire love or a devoted following during an election, and he's still got a number of ticks that appear in media interviews when he is doing badly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Decent summary, even if as ever one might quibble with the odd detail.

Its easy to forget that last spring/summer, Starmer's position appeared close to terminal (one day that utterly bizarre meltdown post-Hartlepool result will be fully explained, and it will be fascinating) Of course a large part of his comeback is down to what the government has done, but he deserves a degree of credit as well for realising some stuff had to change.

[Blair]

Decent summary, even if as ever one might quibble with the odd detail.

Its easy to forget that last spring/summer, Starmer's position appeared close to terminal (one day that utterly bizarre meltdown post-Hartlepool result will be fully explained, and it will be fascinating) Of course a large part of his comeback is down to what the government has done, but he deserves a degree of credit as well for realising some stuff had to change.

Most bizarre as well because the result was hardly a shock (the size of the loss was but the writing was on the wall) and there was also a huge failure to promote the successes in the South-West and East Mayoral results which were very good for the party- and ofc Wales.

The biggest hangover from it is that Rayner still has a job no-one really understands; she should have been given DWP, with the employment rights brief specifically added- she would be very good at this, both from a trade union side, but also in attacking the Government. She is still in a job I don't really understand.

[CumbrianLefty]

Decent summary, even if as ever one might quibble with the odd detail.

Its easy to forget that last spring/summer, Starmer's position appeared close to terminal (one day that utterly bizarre meltdown post-Hartlepool result will be fully explained, and it will be fascinating) Of course a large part of his comeback is down to what the government has done, but he deserves a degree of credit as well for realising some stuff had to change.

Most bizarre as well because the result was hardly a shock (the size of the loss was but the writing was on the wall) and there was also a huge failure to promote the successes in the South-West and East Mayoral results which were very good for the party- and ofc Wales.

Yes, he did seem to totally buy the Claire Ainsley spiel that Hartlepool could be held if only the party blethered on enough about "values" (hence the St George's Day fiasco, for instance)

Meanwhile, the Tories actually promised to do stuff.

[Blair]

Hilarious that someone has briefed to the Mail that Tom Watson could get a peerage.

Are memories really that short in THIGMOO or are people just thick?

[Torrain]

Hilarious that someone has briefed to the Mail that Tom Watson could get a peerage.

Are memories really that short in THIGMOO or are people just thick?

Really? I thought he'd already been removed from a previous Labour list of peer nominations by the HoL committee over his exceedingly clumsy role in the Operation Midland fiasco.

[Blair]

Hilarious that someone has briefed to the Mail that Tom Watson could get a peerage.

Are memories really that short in THIGMOO or are people just thick?

Really? I thought he'd already been removed from a previous Labour list of peer nominations by the HoL committee over his exceedingly clumsy role in the Operation Midland fiasco.

Yes & quite openly too! There is no reason to nominate him & it's more so just embarrassing that it gets printed but the joys of being 'senior labour source'!

Ofc knowing my luck he will now be nominated.

[Blair]

The Bad:
He is not a politician who will inspire love or a devoted following during an election, and he's still got a number of ticks that appear in media interviews when he is doing badly.

The above could have been much longer & was on display in his LBC interview this morning- I'm not sure why he still does it (at first it was I assume on the premise that it's good to get as much coverage as possible) but I don't think anybody listens to it and either credits him for doing it, or comes away with a more positive view of him.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Bad:
He is not a politician who will inspire love or a devoted following during an election, and he's still got a number of ticks that appear in media interviews when he is doing badly.

The above could have been much longer & was on display in his LBC interview this morning- I'm not sure why he still does it (at first it was I assume on the premise that it's good to get as much coverage as possible) but I don't think anybody listens to it and either credits him for doing it, or comes away with a more positive view of him.

I think these appearances were originally designed as some sort of "masochism strategy" - which may have made a kind of sense when Starmer's/Labour's ratings were rather worse than they are now.

The problem may be finding a way to withdraw from this without "frit" allegations.

[Blair]

A sign of the Times- only four Labour MPs voted against the pro abortion measure today that allows for telemedicine abortion pills. The PLP use to have at least 20-40 antis- they were iirc often from the North-West or Scotland.

I was confused by Meg Hillier voting against.

[MaxQue]

A sign of the Times- only four Labour MPs voted against the pro abortion measure today that allows for telemedicine abortion pills. The PLP use to have at least 20-40 antis- they were iirc often from the North-West or Scotland.

I was confused by Meg Hillier voting against.

Why were you. She was involved in the 2008 efforts to reduce the abortion deadline. and she is a Catholic.

[MaxQue]

A sign of the Times- only four Labour MPs voted against the pro abortion measure today that allows for telemedicine abortion pills. The PLP use to have at least 20-40 antis- they were iirc often from the North-West or Scotland.

I was confused by Meg Hillier voting against.

It also passed, because 72 Conservatives voted for the amendment despite the government being against it. So, 4 Labour, Tim Farron, 175 Conservatives and the DUP were against.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who were the other 3 Labour MPs?

[YL]

Who were the other 3 Labour MPs?

Mary Glindon, Kate Hollern and Rachael Maskell.

https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1273#noes

[CumbrianLefty]

None of those names surprise, a minor curiosity that they are all female though.

[JimJamUK]

None of those names surprise, a minor curiosity that they are all female though.

I seem to remember polling from years ago that found women were more likely to support abortion restrictions than men (we are not America!), though the politicians did not seem to reflect this.

[Blair]

A sign of the Times- only four Labour MPs voted against the pro abortion measure today that allows for telemedicine abortion pills. The PLP use to have at least 20-40 antis- they were iirc often from the North-West or Scotland.

I was confused by Meg Hillier voting against.

Why were you. She was involved in the 2008 efforts to reduce the abortion deadline. and she is a Catholic.

She abstained on the NI abortion votes.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

None of those names surprise, a minor curiosity that they are all female though.

I seem to remember polling from years ago that found women were more likely to support abortion restrictions than men (we are not America!), though the politicians did not seem to reflect this.

Women tend to feel more strongly on the issue. Male politicians are far more likely to view abortion as an irrelevant social issue and will go with path of least resistance (i e. Voting with your party line), but the issue for obvious reasons is more visceral with women. Shirley Williams is another obvious example, as was Ruth Kelly.

That said, there were a small clique of old Catholic  male Labourites  who been gradually dying off these past few years (Dobbin, Goggins, Des Browne).

[Blair]

How did Des Browne ever get into ministerial office? I assume TB-GBs.

A lot of the ministerial choices after 2001 were rather well awful. I honestly think the reputation would would have been v different in the current age of political news/social media.

[Silent Hunter]

None of those names surprise, a minor curiosity that they are all female though.

I seem to remember polling from years ago that found women were more likely to support abortion restrictions than men (we are not America!), though the politicians did not seem to reflect this.

Remember 'Roe' changed her mind later in life.

[Sestak]

None of those names surprise, a minor curiosity that they are all female though.

I seem to remember polling from years ago that found women were more likely to support abortion restrictions than men (we are not America!), though the politicians did not seem to reflect this.

Remember 'Roe' changed her mind later in life.

Revealed on her deathbed that her public turnaround was mostly due to the funding offered to her by pro-life organizations rather than a genuine change of opinion. Still doesn’t change the fact that a lot of women are pro-life, though. It being moreso outside the US is even less surprising.