New PA Maps In Effect

[King Lear]

What are the chances the Supreme Court intervenes in this?

[King Lear]

How do you make those cool maps?

[King Lear]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

[King Lear]

I really hope that the SCOTUS doesn’t issue a stay order (my gut tells me they will), because Democrats may need to do better in Pennsylvania to compensate for them possibly missing the ballot in some of the California House Races (CA-48, CA-39, and CA-45 if Raths runs).

If they didn't do it with Florida, they won't here for the same exact situation.

I agree that their is no legal precedent for them to get involved, but that may not be enough to stop a Republican-controlled SCOTUS from intervening to save a few Republican districts.

[King Lear]

When do you think SCOTUS will announce whether their going to issue a stay order or not?

[King Lear]

Here's my quick take on it:



Just a few tidbits-

PA-6:  The Republicans will obviously push to have the Chester district go west into Lancaster, while the Democrats will want to go north into Reading/Berks.   I'm assuming between the courts and Wolf the Democrats will probably prevail on this one.

PA-8: 95% sure this ends up mostly unchanged and remains mostly a tossup district.

PA-12:  I know Butler matches with Allegheny better to make two districts, but that leaves you with Beaver in an incredibly odd spot with either a wrap around with PA-18 or a reach southward from PA-3.   I decided it's better to put Allegheny with Beaver since the difference between Beaver/Butler is only like ~13k people, which can easily be made up elsewhere.

PA-17:  Cartwright actually has a good chance to benefit from all this just due to how picture perfectly Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties form a district with hardly any split needed, and all linked together with highways.   The district matches what the SCoPA was directing almost exactly.   This district actually moves slightly more than one PVI to the left from where it is now.

PA-15:  This one isn't quite as good as PA-17, but still Lehigh, Northampton, and most of Carbon form about as good of a compact, neat district as you can expect, and has almost exactly what the court is asking for with their order.

I kinda dislike what PA-10 turned into ("the leftovers" district) but PA-17 is just too beautiful to pass up.

Here's close up of SEPA:




SWPA:



2012/2016 PVI's:

PA-1: D+27.35  (37.1% AA)

PA-2: D+41.06 (52.5% AA)

PA-3: R+7.23

PA-4: R+17.39

PA-5: R+16.92

PA-6: D+1.71

PA-7: D+11.53

PA-8: R+1.17

PA-9: R+22.07

PA-10: R+17.03

PA-11: R+8.04

PA-12: R+3.95

PA-13: D+8.33

PA-14: D+13.72

PA-15: R+0.71

PA-16: R+11.81

PA-17: D+0.26

PA-18: R+13.91

5D - 9R - 4s


I also attempted my best to keep this as "least change" as possible (except obviously SEPA).   The key points for the redistricting will be PA-6 going north or west, PA-15 including all or part of Northampton, and probably PA-17 having all or part of Luzerne.    Other than that not much seems to matter if county lines are respected enough.

That’s a great map, it’s clear, compact, largely county-based, and gives both parties a fair chance. I really hope that SCOTUS doesn’t screw it up, and that something like this can be implemented.

[King Lear]

Supreme Court signals it might block Pennsylvania ruling against partisan gerrymandering

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Alito is such a POS...

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-essential-washington-updates-supreme-court-signals-it-might-block-1517265413-htmlstory.html

I told you so, the Republican-controlled Supreme Court would never let the Republicans lose seats due to Court-ordered redistricting. If the Democrats "secret plan" to have a good Midterm was to have competitive districts redrawn in their favor, it just failed miserably. Unfortunately, the only way the maps will get better for Democrats is for them to win Governerships in the upcoming midterm, not to have state courts give out redistricting orders that will be shot down by the Supreme Court.

[King Lear]

Is their any chance that Republicans can push off the redistricting until after 2018, or do you think with the SCOTUS decision it’s guaranteed to affect this years election?

[King Lear]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

[King Lear]

Here is the new map:

This map is defiantly a improvement from the current one, which is utterly disgraceful. Just from a quick glance, it looks like they made PA-07 more Democratic, while at the same time making PA-17 more Republican, and keeping everything else more or less the same.

[King Lear]

Is their any way anybody can calculate the PVI for the districts in this map?

[King Lear]

Can anyone calculate the PVI of PA-07 in this new map?

[King Lear]

Can anyone calculate weather Clinton or Trump won PA-06 under this Republican map?

[King Lear]

Can anyone list these districts by how they voted in 2016 under this new map?

[King Lear]

Nate Cohn just sent out a tweet saying he miscalculated the congressional districts and that Clinton actually won PA-08 by .7, he also shows that Clinton won PA-07 by 10 points instead of 14 points, and most of the other margins are different but not by significant margins (less then 2-3 points at most). Basically, the map preserves the 12-6 split of Trump to Clinton districts, but strengthens the Democratic lean of PA-07, and exchanges PA-06 for PA-08. Taking all this into consideration, I don’t get why Democrats shouldn’t adopt this map, it gives them a free seat in PA-07, and significantly improves their outlook in PA-08 and PA-15, if they thought they where going to get a map that gives them 9 seats, they should know that’s basically impossible due to Urban Clustering.

[King Lear]

Can someone please post Nate Cohns updated analysis of the 2016 presidential results for this redistricting plan?

[King Lear]

Here it is https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/962491912673464321/photo/1

[King Lear]

Do you think Republicans will now impeach the state Supreme Court?

[King Lear]

This is the map PA House Democrats propose.

This is a great map, I implore Governor Wolf to accept it, because PA-06 and PA-07 will become instant Democratic pickups. Republicans will probably pickup PA-17, however Cartwright would probably run in PA-15 (a open Clinton-Republican seat in this map), meaning that this map will definitely give Democrats 7 House seats in Pennsylvania (they only have 5 right now).

[King Lear]

It may have its faults, but it's still far better than the map produced by the PA GOP. At the minimum, there should be some territory swapped between the successors of PA-05 and PA-09 to make them somewhat more compact.

Thats not saying much - ~90% of maps are better than both the previous map and the one the legislature just drew. So far: I have yet to see a map that tops the one I previously drew:

This is by far the best map, I really hope The Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopts something similar to this.

[King Lear]

Lt. Governor's map.

Of all the proposed maps I’ve seen from both Republicans and Democrats, this is the only one I think the court should approve. It’s fair, compact, and would probably result in Democrats gaining anywhere from 1-4 seats (PA-07 will definitely flip, while PA-06, PA-08, and PA-15 would flip as well if Democrats are having a good year).

[King Lear]

When is the Pennsylvania Supreme Court going to release their new map today?

[King Lear]

Oh sh*t. That's an amazing map for Dems.


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https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/965673336251518976

This map is amazing, I sure hope the Republicans don’t block it.

[King Lear]

It looks like I’m right, my sources say the Republican-controled Pennsylvania legislature is going to seek the impeachment of all Democratic Pennsylvania Supreme Court Justices next week, thus preserving the current congressional map.

 Excessive moderated posts

[King Lear]

Awesome