Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[lfromnj]

Wasserman called CA-45  for Porter.

He might as well call CA-39 for Cisneros as well, even though he isn't leading atm.

that'll piss of the trumpists who think he knows about the democratic hacking.

[lfromnj]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

Remember when Young Kim was a Strong Candidate that would surely win by double digits?

Those were obvious bullsh**t having Trump at even approval. Hmm its almost like illegal border crossers are just as underpolled as racist white hicks in Missouri and Indiana.
She still was a decent candidate keeping an open seat this close. Parties really should give up on open seats won by the losing president in a midterm. There is just little way they can hold these seats unless the candidate is God tier level and the district/state is VERY different downballot such as Manchin WV 2010.

[lfromnj]

Looks like CA-48 won't end up being all that close.

OOF. Anyway yeah the russia scandal didn't help. I think of any of the orange county seats that flips back at all it will probably be the 48th. If the commision wants to help republicans they might just make the 49th 39th and 45th more D but make the 48th more R.

[lfromnj]

The first Asian-American woman elected to congress just got de-elected.

Its Korean women not AA.

[lfromnj]

AP calls it for Porter!

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1063243908346535936

So you are saying that she won't be the NRCC chair?

anyway why are Maloney and Bustos running for DCCC chair?
dumbasses.(especially Maloney who only won by 10 in 2016). You need your chair to be in a safe seat.

[lfromnj]

So the Dems will probably be trying to take out Valadao and Hunter next cycle?

Also:

Hope she enjoyed orientation!

Congrats to Golden, Porter, and Cisneros (although he’s not called yet)!

Hunters a goner. Even if he survives the trial he has to watch out for Mimi walters and Issa carpet bagging to the current redoubt of the suburban cali GOP.

[lfromnj]

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It's hilarious how arrogant these Republicans in Clinton districts were, to actually think that they were re-elected because they were beloved. They were elected to be a check on President Clinton, and what they ended up getting was lockstep foot soldiers for President Trump who vote with him 99% of the time. So they got tossed out on their sorry asses. So enjoyable to watch. Even a "far left bad fit Elizabeth Warren protege" handed Mimi her ass, LMAO.

she voted 95% with Trump obviously she wasn't moderate enough to vote the proper 99% and which is why she lost.
Anyway yeah it was so obvious the idea in 2016 that the voters in her district probably didn't like Hillary Clinton that much but found her stable while Trump looked insane and crazy so they decided we can get Hillary clinton for president but the house will be republican. Trump as president made that floor fall. I still love all the pundits keeping all the CA seats at tossup and were about to move Ca 39th to Lean R because of a sh**tty poll that showed Trump with +0 approval.

Pete sessions wasn't a complete dumbass and he just trying to scare the democrats to make a Clinton +3 seat Lean R because muh unopposed incumbent 2016 + Romney Clintons will obviously vote for the republican with Trump as president. Mimi Walters is just a complete idiot who has no idea how to run a race however.

[lfromnj]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

or that a democrat would lose in Minnesotas iron range without a scandal in a D+8 environment.

[lfromnj]

Btw:

Why is the TX-23 race still not called ?

In the other uncalled races, votes are still being counted ... but TX seems to be fully counted ?!?

I think a recount is happening there and Ortiz JOnes is suing for provisionals.

[lfromnj]

Nate Silver moved CA-21 to Tossup.

To think that RRH moved this to Safe R on Election Day...

TBF i never felt their ratings were Super hackish they may have been stupid for some but I never got the hack feeling for their ratings.

[lfromnj]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

3 Precincts in Utah County, 18 in SLC.

Also as a note, Indy Redistricting is up 50.1-49.9 now.

I wouldn't call it for Love just yet in that case. Good news on the redistricting referendum.

So it should pass now unless counting error or rural counties disproportionately out?

dont get the excitement about it. You can easily draw a safe r seat entirely within SLC.

Nope. You can't draw a Safe R seat entirely within Salt Lake City or Salt Lake County.

Salt Lake City is really Democratic, and the GOP areas within the county are just too small to create a whole CD out of.

incorrect



R+12

do you have the mcain obama numbers for that district?
Thats probably the best numbers to use to estimate SLC as the D+8 year probably gets cancelled out by the trend but Romney and Trump are too weird occurences to use currently.

[lfromnj]

Republicans stole UT-4

Democrats stole AR 2nd from themselves.

[lfromnj]

Coffman gets it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2018/11/15/18095829/mike-coffman-midterms-2020-trump-house

Coffman was as doomed as comstock
Why tf would a clinton +9 district that is trending democrat with an educated and high turnout population vote for Coffman?

[lfromnj]

Of the six victorious Democratic House challengers in California, three of them are already outperforming Clinton's winning margin while two more (Porter and Hill) look likely to do so as well once all the votes are counted. As it stands:

CA-10: Harder +3. (Clinton +2)
CA-25: Hill +6. (Clinton +7)
CA-39: Cisneros +1. (Clinton +9)
CA-45: Porter +3. (Clinton +4)
CA-48: Rouda +6 (Clinton +2)
CA-49: Levin +11. (Clinton +7)

Rouda and Levin are obviously the biggest overperformers. And Cisneros is clearly the weakest link, but I doubt he'll have trouble going forward as the area continues its bluening.

I remember being told by Tea Party Hater and socaldem that Dems were doomed in these House races because Republicans led in the partisan registration though.

Surely dems will win WV03 while losing Ca 49th.

[lfromnj]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

[lfromnj]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

The only reason there was a dem candidate at all was because of him because Huerta dropped out after his mom scared everyone else.

[lfromnj]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

??

When I looked a week ago, I swear, this website didnt exist.

im pretty sure it would as the DCCC did care a bit about this race.

[lfromnj]

for Utah 2008 numbers are the best
Wave election but Utah has been trending democrat so its PVI should be the best overall.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1064672760297807873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

valadao update
Only leading by a thousand(although thats a decent lead for a district like this)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1064672760297807873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

valadao update
Only leading by a thousand(although thats a decent lead for a district like this)

Umm it says he's leading by only 930 votes.

Cox may be favored at this point...

yeah id say its Tilt D rn honestly as TJ Cox did hit his benchmarks.
Anyway 930 in a district like this is big because 3 times as many people voted in other districts than this one.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, I never understood why people thought Valadao and Hurd were unbeatable juggernauts. I didn’t even move these races out of the Toss-up category when it appeared that Democrats had given up on CA-21/TX-23.

Valadao made sense given his past margins and his 28 point win in the jungle primary. Hurd... not sure what they were smoking there with the absurd Hurd +15 polls in samples where Trump was popular

Yeah Valadao was definitely Lean R although an upset was not impossible if you used a fundamental model for midterm turnout in that district + the primary results
The Hurd polls were bullsh**t when he won by 1 point for the past 2 elections and the same polls showed Beto losing the district and Trumps with  +13 approval LMAO. Yet because pundits were like muh strong 1 point win candidate is obviously gonna win by 10 in a dem wave year so no one cared.

[lfromnj]

If the GOP loses this do they just give up and make a fair district for the 20's?
Imagine trying to gerrymander a state for a 4-0 yet only holding for 2/5 of the cycle.

[lfromnj]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

I mean it is kind of true until redistricting. If they fall further its already over for the national GOP. Basically all the other republican seats voted for Trump by double digits besides Nunes which was by 9,5 points so close enough. They are also all not trending democrat seriously besides the 50th which is republican enough to still elect an indicted congressman. So yeah id say the CA GOP can breathe for a while unless there is a total collapse nationwide.

[lfromnj]

Anyway Wasserman looks like he might have some egg on his face after roasting Gerkhe over utah 4th.

[lfromnj]

What do they even have left other than their rump of rural Central Valley and far north districts?  If TJ Cox wins, I don’t know of any Republican seats that could fall even in a tsunami, unless Duncan Hunter sticks around.  At the same time, I can point to at least five Democratic seats that could feasibly fall in a good national year for Republicans.

Dems might be able to pick off a few more seats in the state assembly or state senate, but it doesn’t really matter.  Republicans are powerless on the state level.

I called my friend who lives in Cali tonight and ended it with "your state is now boring" (more or less )

Not much left there. Democrats already control a much higher % of seats in Congress and the legislature than their vote share would suggest too. It's probably all defense from here on out.

Not necessarily; there is still some room for the Republican Party to fall.

I mean excluding a hunter special election is there any other house seats the Cali GOP can lose.
Anyway the future of the Cali GOP is Poizner.