Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I definitely had a dream last night that Cox (and Harder) were winning by either high single digits or double digits.

Personal subconscious anecdotes aside, is a Bordeaux win more likely then not now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I definitely had a dream last night that Cox (and Harder) were winning by either high single digits or double digits.

Personal subconscious anecdotes aside, is a Bordeaux win more likely then not now?

Woodall is still the likely winner, but it's not a sure thing yet.

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

Why is the TX-23 race still not called ?

In the other uncalled races, votes are still being counted ... but TX seems to be fully counted ?!?

[lfromnj]

Btw:

Why is the TX-23 race still not called ?

In the other uncalled races, votes are still being counted ... but TX seems to be fully counted ?!?

I think a recount is happening there and Ortiz JOnes is suing for provisionals.

[Virginiá]

lol:

[Calthrina950]

lol:

This is an interesting, and telling, depiction. It is true that the Democratic freshmen are much more diverse, racially and in terms of gender, than their Republican counterparts. The Democrats are far more representative of this nation's racial complexion, I do agree with that.

[Nyvin]

lol:

I love the emoji for Crenshaw.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

lol:

I love the emoji for Crenshaw.

Someone has to provide the diversity for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1063496573240438784

[Politician]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

[KingSweden]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

[Landslide Lyndon]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

[Oryxslayer]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

The Dallas state house one happened this cycle. I believe there is only one leading pub left in the county, and that seat is close vote wise.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

Also Houston. Fletcher won by a decent margin and Crenshaw massively underperformed in the 2nd next door.

[Beet]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

Also Houston. Fletcher won by a decent margin and Crenshaw massively underperformed in the 2nd next door.

Harris county is Houston. Democrats really need to make an effort to take the Texas House in 2020 (another reason to contest the state). Without gerrymandering they would have a lot more seats. If you ask me O'Rourke should moderate his stance on an AR-15 ban, and other hot-button issues, and challenge Cornyn.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, Bordeaux apparently won a precinct in Forsyth County. That is Forsyth County, Georgia (GA-07).

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1063491967957590017

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, Bordeaux apparently won a precinct in Forsyth County. That is Forsyth County, Georgia (GA-07).

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1063491967957590017

Seems quite probable Bordeaux would win a rematch in 2020 if she wants won, particularly with the district viewed as top tier competitive from day one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Harris county is Houston. Democrats really need to make an effort to take the Texas House in 2020 (another reason to contest the state). Without gerrymandering they would have a lot more seats. If you ask me O'Rourke should moderate his stance on an AR-15 ban, and other hot-button issues, and challenge Cornyn.

Yep, there are enough TX state house seats within reach from the Beto numbers that if Dems can repeat Beto's performance in 2020 (much less improve on it), the TX State House could flip.

And if it does, that means a lot of additional Congressional seats from a court drawn redistricting map, as opposed to another Republican gerrymander. And if Dems do take the State House and get neutral State House maps, they stand a good chance of keeping control of the TX State House over the course of the 2020s, because of the increasing "self-packing" of Rs in rural areas and smaller towns/cities and the increasing diversification of the suburbs.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Another (smallish) Fresno dump for Cox. But it seems like a good result, overperforming Clinton a bit. We still need more Kern to see if he can get over the top...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow, Bordeaux apparently won a precinct in Forsyth County. That is Forsyth County, Georgia (GA-07).

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1063491967957590017

That's impressive, although not quite as impressive as it looks at first glance.  That part of Forsyth County is becoming more diverse and is much more so than the county as a whole is.  (I happen to live in Forsyth County.)

[Xing]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

[Calthrina950]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

It looks like Love will probably hold on.

[Crumpets]

Wow, Bordeaux apparently won a precinct in Forsyth County. That is Forsyth County, Georgia (GA-07).

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1063491967957590017

That's impressive, although not quite as impressive as it looks at first glance.  That part of Forsyth County is becoming more diverse and is much more so than the county as a whole is.  (I happen to live in Forsyth County.)

I know two people from Forsyth County, and they are absolute delights. I've never understood how the county has such a backwards history.

[Tintrlvr]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

I assume that was the remaining Utah County ballots. Do we know what's still out?

[2016]

Mia Love has pulled into the lead in UT-04 by about 400 votes.

It looks like Love will probably hold on.

Finally. Phew. Long time coming.