Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?

It could be that Donald Trump has gotten the recognition that he is an arrogant, abrasive city-slicker.

It's the trade war. Rule number one of Iowa Presidential politics: you mess with their farms, they will punish you. Rule number two: see rule number one.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.

Fair point. What if we just used point a? By my counts, Trump would win, 286-252, with Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine flipping back. Obviously Trump is weaker than MC polling indicates in Virginia, so if the latest election there is any indicator, he will lose it badly, making him skate by with just 273 EVs. It looks like it would come down to Pennsylvania, where he has also held up well in MC polling.

If Trump survives impeachment and gets re-elected with just 273 EVs, amidst an even worse rout in the popular vote, it is going to put severe strain on the credibility of our electoral system.

I just don't see a path to Trump winning the popular vote. In fact, I think it's likely (75% chance) the Democrats get a popular majority. However... Trump's victory in 2016 was based on people who didn't like him voting for him, and if he gets an electoral win in 2020, it will be for the same reason. This time rather than "but her emails," it will be "but muh economy."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

"We weren't electing a priest!"

At some point the realization has to sink in that conservative causes are better represented under President Pence.

Also at some point Pence will come out of the closet as President-in-Waiting, which he has been since he agreed to be Trump's running mate.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

When 42% of registered voters in a large EV prize that's several states short of your tipping point think you should be removed from office for high crimes and misdemeanors, things aren't good.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Honestly, this feels very similar to the rhetoric democrats were using to defend Clinton 2016, as in, how dare people believe that having allegations of corruption/nepotism over your head could hurt a candidate in the general election. And in this case, it is a fact that almost everyone views Hunter Biden getting his cushy job in Burisma negatively.

Sure, but that cannot be separated from Trump and how his family has even more blatantly used Trump's presidency to enrich themselves. That's what's so frustrating. Same with Clinton's emails. Nikki Haley and Trump's Ukraine scandal have made that an even sadder event in our nation's history, that something which continues to prove itself so inconsequential in comparison, managed to cause such a ripple effect in our country and its politics.

Peoples trusting their perceptions more than empirical facts is a major ailment in our republic that is part of many things that is causing it to slowly rot. It's why I cannot forgive American voters and spare them from some of the blame when it comes to elections and their consequences. Voters get the politicians they deserve, and politicians won't change unless the voters change too. Clearly, that's asking for something insurmountable though.

A phenomenon I have noticed is the tendency among independents right smack in the center to believe right-wing narratives about corruption and criminal doings, but not left-wing ones. Compare these two narratives:

1. Trump refuses to release his tax returns because they'll show he has significant financial ties to Russia, who is actively trying to get him elected so Putin can have a puppet in the White House.

2. Hillary Clinton scrubbed thousands of emails from her private server because they will uncover her scheme to sell weapons to ISIS, and (2019 version) conspiring with Cloudstrike and the Ukrainians to interfere in the 2016 election and frame Donald Trump.

To me, these are equally crazy, but independents seem much more likely to dismiss the first as a nothingburger, but find at least some truth in the second.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Used improperly 53 (+4)
Did not use improperly 42 (-1)

42% (!!!!) thinks Trump did NOT use his powers improperly in the Ukraine matter. Wow. That is honestly astounding. I mean this is textbook abuse of power, even if you interpret the matters in the most Trump-friendly manner. Even with no quid-pro-quo whatsoever, asking a foreign government to investigate (or just announce an investigation) into your presumed presidential challenger is abuse of power, period. Man, sometimes I wish the democrats had never even mentioned quid-pro-quo in the first place. Quid-pro-quo makes it worse, but it doesn't change the fact that it was abuse of power.

The most Trump-friendly manner is to believe that Trump had to bypass the deep state to get to the bottom of Biden's connection to the DNC Crowdstrike / Ukrainian effort to meddle in the 2016 election and frame Trump something something Steele dossier something something FBI wiretapping...

42% of Americans are willing to entertain insane theories with no evidence whatsoever if it gives a glimmer of hope of rescuing this president. That is what's truly sad.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

I love the MC numbers whenever they come out because they're so funny, their latest monthly survey has Trump approval at -7 in PA vs -13 in IA and -5 in OH. Trump is also at -6 in Nebraska according to MC. How is Trump's approval higher in Ohio than Nebraska or higher in Pennsylvania than Iowa, I guess MC would argue there's some kind Trump approval collapse going on in rural areas whereas he's holding up in the industrial areas of PA and OH.

Imagine if Trump collapses in rural middle America but hangs on in the Rust Belt.  Cue the "EC Maps No One Saw Coming", Annatar.

338-200 :-)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Economist polled support for Impeachment by state:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/12/14/a-plurality-of-americans-but-not-of-states-want-donald-trump-impeached

Since impeachment is a bigger hammer than voting against the incumbent, I think it's reasonable to assume that voting intention against Trump is at least as high as impeachment support.  In that case, these numbers don't bode well for Trump:

51% support for impeachment: CO, FL, ME, MI, NV, PA, VA

49%: AZ, MN, TX, WI

48%: GA, LA(!?), NC

47%: IA

46%: NH, OH

In a normal world this might be true, but we live on Planet Trump now.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1206989150253174784?s=20

In the 2020 Presidential election, whoever wins WI-03 will take the White House.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

All that aside, his approval should be well north of 45% just based on this:

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

All that aside, his approval should be well north of 45% just based on this:

I’m not sure many Americans are paying attention to the S&P especially with impeachment...

Perhaps not, but they are paying attention to their retirement accounts. When you're suddenly $10k, $20k, $30k richer on paper, your outlook on life changes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Iowa: PPP, Dec. 13-15, 944 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Generic D 49, Trump 47

How many more quality polls showing Trump within the MoE do we need before we can declare Iowa a tossup, or at least lean R?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Iowa: PPP, Dec. 13-15, 944 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Generic D 49, Trump 47

How many more quality polls showing Trump within the MoE do we need before we can declare Iowa a tossup, or at least lean R?

Since when has Atlas ever had it at anything other than a Tossup/Tilt/Lean R?

For the past three years half of Atlas (especially blue avatars) have had Iowa as safe R because muh trends.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1242521155979935744

This is one of those "rally around the president" moments of national emergency. An normal president of either party would be riding 80% approvals right now.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Damn - Morning Consult (6/24-6/28) has him at 36/58. Is -22 the lowest ever recorded for MC?

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/30154501/2006121_crosstabs_INTERNET_SERVICES_Adults_v1_LM.pdf

Whatever happened to the MC state-by-state "tracking Trump" polls? They haven't updated those since the February numbers.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

44% of registered voters in North Carolina approve of President Trump’s overall job performance, with 51% disapproving. When asked about President Trump’s handling of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, 42% percent approve compared to 51% who disapprove. An even smaller percentage (35%) approve of President Trump’s handling of the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, while 52% disapprove.

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/presidential-and-senate-elections-remain-highly-competitive-in-battleground-north-carolina-cooper-continues-to-lead-forest-in-race-for-governor

This does not change the map. President Trump is in a precarious spot in an electorally-large state that he absolutely must win but that in no way ensures him of a victory in the Electoral College. COVID-19 is not going away, and Trump is getting nothing from his dismissal of protests against a horrible case of inexcusable police brutality.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

Biden's margin in MI will probably be more than 10%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

YouGov poll for Missouri-

Approve: 50% (+2)
Disapprove: 48%

https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/june-2020-poll/trump-biden.php

When you're nearly negative approval in *Missouri*, a Trump +19 state...

The exit polls will be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of people who disapprove of Trump but voted for him anyway.