Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk, June 25-29, 1000 RV (change from April)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 58 (+5)

Biden 53 (+3), Trump 41 (+1)

With third party option: Biden 46 (+2), Trump 37 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the addition of the Pew and Suffolk polls, Trump is now at -16 in the 538 average (40.4/56.4).

[Beet]

The approval rating numbers are looking bad for Trump. He has fallen under a key support on RCP - his local minimum during the Ukraine impeachment scandal in October 2019. This is the first local minimum in the last 5 that has been lower than the one before it. Further, his disapproval rating is at its highest since January 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Damn - Morning Consult (6/24-6/28) has him at 36/58. Is -22 the lowest ever recorded for MC?

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/30154501/2006121_crosstabs_INTERNET_SERVICES_Adults_v1_LM.pdf

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Damn - Morning Consult (6/24-6/28) has him at 36/58. Is -22 the lowest ever recorded for MC?

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/30154501/2006121_crosstabs_INTERNET_SERVICES_Adults_v1_LM.pdf

Whatever happened to the MC state-by-state "tracking Trump" polls? They haven't updated those since the February numbers.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Damn - Morning Consult (6/24-6/28) has him at 36/58. Is -22 the lowest ever recorded for MC?

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/06/30154501/2006121_crosstabs_INTERNET_SERVICES_Adults_v1_LM.pdf

Almost, but not quite.  They had 36/59 early this month, and 37/59 once this month and once in Oct. 2019.

[pbrower2a]

44% of registered voters in North Carolina approve of President Trump’s overall job performance, with 51% disapproving. When asked about President Trump’s handling of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, 42% percent approve compared to 51% who disapprove. An even smaller percentage (35%) approve of President Trump’s handling of the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, while 52% disapprove.

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/presidential-and-senate-elections-remain-highly-competitive-in-battleground-north-carolina-cooper-continues-to-lead-forest-in-race-for-governor

This does not change the map. President Trump is in a precarious spot in an electorally-large state that he absolutely must win but that in no way ensures him of a victory in the Electoral College. COVID-19 is not going away, and Trump is getting nothing from his dismissal of protests against a horrible case of inexcusable police brutality.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

44% of registered voters in North Carolina approve of President Trump’s overall job performance, with 51% disapproving. When asked about President Trump’s handling of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus, 42% percent approve compared to 51% who disapprove. An even smaller percentage (35%) approve of President Trump’s handling of the nationwide protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, while 52% disapprove.

https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/presidential-and-senate-elections-remain-highly-competitive-in-battleground-north-carolina-cooper-continues-to-lead-forest-in-race-for-governor

This does not change the map. President Trump is in a precarious spot in an electorally-large state that he absolutely must win but that in no way ensures him of a victory in the Electoral College. COVID-19 is not going away, and Trump is getting nothing from his dismissal of protests against a horrible case of inexcusable police brutality.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 40 Trump 60
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

The states swing together. But a lamebrained attack on a Governor doing her job right  instead of obeying him and letting her state take the hit for his incompetence and cruelty was a bad idea:

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

Biden's margin in MI will probably be more than 10%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 28-30, 1500 adults including 1198 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB: D 49 (+1), R 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, June 26-30, 867 adults including 733 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

RV:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, June 27-30, 1005 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Biden 48 (+3), Trump 40 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 29-30, 1115 adults including 943 RC

Adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (nc)


RV:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Biden 46 (-1), Trump 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: PPP, June 26-27, 1237 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

Biden 50, Trump 44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hart Research for Protect Our Care, June 22-28, 1000 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 59

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 48

Biden 55, Trump 41

GCB: D 49, R 40

[woodley park]

We are now neck deep in the nightmare scenario, where the haste to reopen causes a surge in new cases, a self-inflicted “second” wave (with quotation marks used because the first one never really ended, it had just transitioned to manageable decline). This second wave not only means a surge in suffering and death, it also makes that V-shaped recovery less and less realistic.

Trump was the lead cheerleader for the rapid re-opening, and extremely, publicly hostile to masks and mask wearers. It is totally fair to lay the blame for this surge at his feet.

Pundits and posters on this board said that if COVID surged after a push to re-open, then Trump was likely finished. Four months out, I’m wondering if his new polling low is here to stay. Thoughts? And don’t insult my intelligence with that “4 months is a lifetime in politics” nonsense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is definitely the underdog but the Change Research polls were highly skeptical and were if Registered voters, not LV ad it's likely gonna come down to the 278 EC map. Trump shouldnt be underestimated and it's a VBM election and people that wont care to vote, just like Census arent gonna turn in ballots.

Trump said he wont extend unemployment benefits past a yr, but he will pass a stimulus check. 6 months to a yr unemployment is too much

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 46

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TXToplines7220.pdf

Texas is a legitimate toss-up this time, and I don't see things getting better for Trump.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 55 Trump 45
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses. 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems to be Texas poll day:

Texas: UTexas/YouGov, June 19-29, 1200 RV (change from April)

Approve 46 (-3)
Disapprove 48 (+3)

Trump 48, Biden 44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is gonna be very close, since Dems are pouring money in 2 runoff elections and could replace AZ and WI as states for Biden to get over 268 to 280

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

[Dr. Arch]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

👀

[Ronnie]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

I really don’t think we can discount the possibility that Maine’s 2nd district is one of the first places to flip from 2016.  His approval rating across New England is devastating.

[pbrower2a]

With these numbers, Georgia would be the first state to flip, as it counts its votes unusually fast. It was a fairly quick call for McCain in 2008 even if it was fairly close.

But that is a nitpick. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kanye West just entered the race for Prez, I doubt we see a 500 EC landslide,  now