Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Del Tachi]

Harris/TMac 2024?

[Del Tachi]

Yeah, no. McAuliffe saying he has more experience is neither racist nor a dog-whistle. It's just objectively true. Foy isn't running against the McAuliffe of 7 or 11 years ago. She's running against somebody who has since served 4 years in the Governor's Mansion. If you wanna argue he's had his time, then that's more than fine, but that's a wholly different (& frankly much better) argument than 'touting objective experience is now racist.'

There is no reason statements can't be objectively true and racist dog whistles, FWIW.  Anyone can claim anything as a "dog whistle" because it's based on allegedly racist coding that is absent in the literal contents of the speech.  There is no real defense of "dog-whistling" because the very technique requires a certain degree of plausible deniability, and thus anyone invoking the term is engaging in an unfair smear attack.

That being said, JCF is campaigning as the "woke" candidate so she can be expected to say flashly things like this. 

[Del Tachi]

I still think this will turn out to be a 53-45 McAuliffe win in the end

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Videos like this are always dumb.  Like, do you think that if they found a Youngkin voter who could actually articulate what CRT is they would be plastering his facae on social media trying to get him to go viral?  lol

[Del Tachi]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

[Del Tachi]

Buchanan County all in. Only 2 point R swing

From Trump or Gillespie?

[Del Tachi]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden). 

I don’t think it compares. Brown not only won in solid-blue Mass, but he won Ted Kennedy’s seat. It was an epic upset.

Brown’s win also had more implications for Obama’s legislative agenda.  VA is a local race, at the end is the day

[Del Tachi]

Well I don’t think TMac is winning by 6 anymore lol

[Del Tachi]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

[Del Tachi]

Youngkin now has more votes than Northam 2017

[Del Tachi]

Fairfax County is all in.

Where you see that at?

NYT has it as 100 percent

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/1455746658814382080?s=20

interesting… bigger rightward shifts in Urban areas than Rurals

Rurals were maxed-out.  Youngkin’s only shot at winning always ran through the suburbs, and it looks like he did it.

[Del Tachi]

On the bright side, Democrats will more than likely be picking fresh faces in 2025 instead of has-beens like Terry McAuliffe or Mark Herring.  At least I certainly will.   

Levar Stoney’s gubernatorial campaign begins tonight!

[Del Tachi]

Some of my disparate observations, analysis and other Monday-morning QB'ing:

1.  McAuliffe's strategy of running against "Trumpkin" was a bad bet.  Turns out voters aren't really animated by attacks on an ex-President.  Youngkin gained everywhere because he was the only candidate talking about the issues, McAuliffe was talking past voters trying to bring-up Trump at every possible moment.

2.  Independent of  McAuliffe's strategy, he is probably just a weak candidate in general.  Ultimate Beltway insider and has-been governor is not a compelling biography compared to the younger, outsider Youngkin. 

3.  Alternatively, Glenn Youngkin is pretty much the type of Republican nominee you would create in a lab.  Not having to run in and win a GOP primary was definitely a net positive for Youngkin in this race.     

4.  The polls were pretty accurate.  My worry that polls were herding towards Youngkin in the closing stretch doesn't appear to have materialized.  Then again, Virginia is a pretty easy state to poll (i.e., relatively few non-college Whites.)   

5.  The biggest loser of last night may very well be Donald Trump.  Republicans are looking over the results today and seeing a way to run and win while keeping Trump at arms' length.  GOP primary voters motivated by an "electability" criterion look to have a valid prototype in Glenn Youngkin, and I expect this angle will be the dominant one in conservative media going into next year. 

I'll leave it to the Democrat hacks on this site to hash out what the results ultimately mean about the battles being fought in their own party.  Regardless, I only see these results hardening Manchinema and AOC types alike on their BBB positions. 

[Del Tachi]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I'm not getting involved in the what-means-what discussion, but it's quite plausible that medium propensity voters lean Republican, while highs and lows both lean Democrat, right?

Thus in that scenario , medium turnout would be good for Youngkin and either extreme would be good for McAuliffe.

To revisit, this may be true of voters at an individual level but if the Republican coalition is lower-propensity than Democrats *in aggregate* then higher turnout scenarios should get better and better for Republicans (from baseline.)

It's interesting to think that the GOP may actually have a structural, high turnout advantage in D states like Virginia.  It's believable that non-White voters are more Republican under a "high turnout" scenario than a "low turnout" one, IMO.   

[Del Tachi]

Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues.

You can't be something you're not.  Democrats like this literally do not exist anymore.  They've all become Republicans.

Democrats have traded White working-class voters for suburban types, and it's obviously a bad trade electorally unless you have someone as uniquely unpopular as incumbent president Donald Trump to rail against.  With  Trump now exiting, Democrats should hunker down for the long wilderness period they have coming.