Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[The Mikado]

It's hilarious how the blue avatars come in to talk in this thread whenever Trump's on an upswing, and then vanish the second his numbers return to where they usually are.

[The Mikado]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

That was the "I just caught Saddam Hussein" bounce of 2003. Different thing.

[The Mikado]

IMO this bump is absolutely real.

The question is just whether it lasts any appreciable amount of time (weeks, even).

Even support among Democrats going back down from that 17% to its usual 8%ish (which will eventually happen) would be enough to knock that 48% back down to ~45%.

[The Mikado]

See what I tell you Badger came in this forum and said that Dems are gonna lose, no we arent Badger. I dont hear from Badger now😎😎😎

^^^

What he said.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1269980040495861760

lol Polls aren’t predictive.

They look at past. Wake me up when next months numbers are trending higher with the reopening and Econ numbers

In this case, polling below 45% approval in June correlates 100% with losing reelection in November.

Correct word. But who gives a damn the correlation?

Shame they relationship you were looking for that doesn’t exist is casual.

Being an incredibly unpopular president correlates strongly with losing reelection, while being a popular president correlates strongly to winning reelection. I wonder if one might cause the other to happen...nah, that can't be. Must be something else that causes people to lose or win reelection.

Funny coincidence, that.

[The Mikado]

I just consider everyone who claims to neither approve or disapprove as a lost cause. If they can’t make up their minds at this point, they are definitely with Trump but too embarrassed to admit it

More likely, they're "Trump/Not voting swing voters."

They're not voting Dem, sure, but they're not necessarily voting at all.