Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[omar04]

54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

who is on track to win? and win without a runoff?

Asking this every few minutes won't change the answer. I don't mean to be rude but no one can 100% predict whether or not there will be a runoff at this point.

[Figueira]

[Pivaru]

In Mato Grosso do Sul, Capitão Contar (PRTB) and Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) will both advance to the second round in the gubernatorial race. Both support Bolsonaro.

[Adam Griffin]

One thing I wonder about: currently, precincts reporting (%) relative to counted vote suggests 120.1m voter turnout - but it was 117m in the first round last time and 114m in the second round. Surely Brazil has grown enough since and general polarization effects would lift this number higher? If we're looking at 125-130m turnout, then it's possible Lula has a bit more breathing room to avoid a runoff (though still unlikely, and obviously depends on where any potential turnout surge originates).

[Adam Griffin]

60.33% reporting
46.01% Bolsonaro - 32049235 (+0.81)
45.20% Lula - 31484583

[Duke of York]

60.33% reporting
46.01% Bolsonaro - 32049235 (+0.81)
45.20% Lula - 31484583

Lula seems likely to overtake Bolsonaro very soon.

[Frodo]

60.33% reporting
46.01% Bolsonaro - 32049235 (+0.81)
45.20% Lula - 31484583

Yup, even with Lula da Silva overtaking President Jair Bolsanaro this is definitely going to a runoff....  

[Pivaru]

In Tocantins, the incumbent governor Wanderlei Barbosa (Republicanos) has been reelected.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

60.33% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 32,049,235 (46.01%)
LULA- 31,484,583 (45.20%)

[Sebastiansg7]

I feel bummed, I don't know, it seems that Lula won't make it in the first round, I was really hoping so.

[jaichind]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

[Double Carpet]

Hope and reality are often opposites in election results.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Lula should overtake Bolsonaro when 65-67% of precincts are reporting - and if current trends hold, it's on track for a Lula win of 2-3 points (46.5-47.5%). Still reason to think what's left should be more favorable to Lula than what has been counted, so 48%+ is possible.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

[jaichind]

The slightly bad news for Lula is that he will likely miss winning in the first round with Gomes only at 3%.    I think this opens Bolsonaro to keep the second round close (like 52-48.)  This potential narrow second round means Bolsonaro can try or hope for some hail mary plays between now and the second round.  Maybe there might be another crazy assassin?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lula should take the lead with the next batch.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

66.66% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 35,360,274 (45.69%)
LULA- 35,246,748 (45.55%)




Also Ballsonaro down to 3% in Amazonas with 70% in.

[Pivaru]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

It reminds me of 2002, in that election petistas were optimistic about José Genoino winning, turns out he was defeated handily by Alckmin in the second round. I don't think Tarcisio will win by as much Alckmin did back then, but I do think Haddad is the new Genoino.

I guess he'll probably get to be a minister serving under Lula if he does lose.

[Mr. Smith]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hope and reality are often opposites in election results.

Can I add this to my signature?

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

And that is not good in a country with an even more unhinged right wing populist leader who actually has the support of the military.

[Double Carpet]

So in Rd 2 we would expect Tebet to back Bolsonaro and Gomes to back Lula?

Maybe it will all come down to the fake priest.

[Horus]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

One wonders if there's a Trump like social trust bias with Bolsonaro voters that would make them harder to reach for polls.

[Frodo]

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

Complete with an insurrection in São Paulo?  

[jaichind]

If Bolsonaro can pull off an overperformance in the second round and lose narrowly then perhaps there might be a chance of a Bolsonaro trying for a comeback in 2026.

[Pres Mike]

No chance of Lula winning in the first round?