VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Gass3268]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

[Gass3268]

fhtagn vote Northam if only because it helps ensures neutral redistricting

Otherwise Gillespie and Republicans are no doubt planning to rig the maps in 2021 but also no doubt to gerrymander the state Senate map as soon as Gillespie worms his way into office next year (if he wins).

Democrats would get one more shot in 2019 to win back the state senate.

They'd gerrymander it before 2019

Not all states allow off-year redistricting (besides court mandated cases) - is VA one of those?

I see no reason why they wouldn't shore up Dick black's and Glenn Sturtevant's districts. I certainly would if I were them

Some state constitutions prohibit it.

[Gass3268]

5-poll average after Emerson release:

Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1
Gravis: N+5
Roanoke: Tie

Average: N+2.4

5-poll average after Quinnipiac release:

Quinnipiac: N+9
CNU: N+6
Emerson: N+3
Siena: N+3
Trafalgar: N+1

Average: N+4.4

[Gass3268]

Politico: Some grumbling from conservatives on Gillespie shunning Trump

[Gass3268]

New Fox poll

LV:

Northam 48 (-1)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2

RV:

Northam 45 (nc)
Gillespie 41 (-1)
Hyra 3

More and more polls are showing Northam voters more excited to vote.

[Gass3268]

Around when do results start coming in tomorrow?

8 or 9 for a good but not full picture, rural counties post first, Ffx and PW last to get to 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Statewide.html

Chesterfield County, just south of the City of Richmond, is a good county to key on early. It is one of the first counties to report and if Gillespie doesn't win it by 8-9 points, he'll be in trouble.

[Gass3268]

From Nate Silver:

[Gass3268]

From Nate Silver:

So Gillespie has a 25% chance then.

Alright

About 10% better odds for Gillespie than Trump had in VA last year.

[Gass3268]

I could be wrong about this, but it is worth keeping in mind that even in NoVA the most Republican precincts often report first. Gillespie was up big in Loudoun County in 2014 with 10% reporting or so, I believe.

I know that's the case for Prince William County. The big population bases and the Democratic strongholds are along I-95 and I-66, but the area in-between is more Republican and it reports first.

[Gass3268]

Falls Church turnout 2 hours after polls opened

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Same for Arlington:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

It would be good to get some reports from outside NoVA as well.

It would, but I'm only able to post what I see!

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fairfax County is already at 35.6% of 2013 turnout.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Massive grain of salt as this guy is a Democratic operative, but:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fairfax County is already at 35.6% of 2013 turnout.

They just tweeted that this does not include the early vote. If you add that it goes to 49.2% of the 203 vote by 10am this morning.

[Gass3268]

Loudoun County (NOVA suburb): 10am check indicates 34,759 voters of 242,313 total reg voters. 14.34% turnout.

38.8% of the total 2013 turnout (not sure if this includes early vote)

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Massive grain of salt as this guy is a Democratic operative, but:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think it’s wise to be skeptical of this kind of thing

I agree, but the guy seems to be connected based on some of the stuff on his twitter.

[Gass3268]

Bristol, VA at 15% at 11:15

[Gass3268]

Dirty tricks

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

Don Jr just tweeted this out:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Gass3268]

If poll turnout is at 29% and absentee turnout is 8%, total turnout should be 37% right? Arlington is throwing me off a bit.

Falls Church is at 42% at noon

[Gass3268]

Keep in mind that Falls Church is tiny though. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are where the votes are. The small independent cities like Falls Church are only a few thousand votes.

Also Falls Church historically has some of the best turnout in Virginia.

[Gass3268]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.