VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

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Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

Wulfric is a man whose Endorsements Really Matter™

[swf541]

Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

The second

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Why do Gillespie's biggest surrogates have to be so stupid?

You’re definitely first among equals when it comes to bad Gillespie surrogates.

I know when the election is occurring though. If Northam gets Warnered, I'm blaming Gillespie's loss on Don Jr.

[MAINEiac4434]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

[Jeppe]

Keep in mind that Falls Church is tiny though. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are where the votes are. The small independent cities like Falls Church are only a few thousand votes.

[Yank2133]

Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

Worse: he’s a centrist

lol

[KingSweden]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

Depends on regional trends, I guess, like turnout in rural GOP areas w/out Trump to vote for or Obama to vote against (ditto suburban areas, though different dynamic of course)

[Gass3268]

Keep in mind that Falls Church is tiny though. Alexandria, Arlington, and Fairfax are where the votes are. The small independent cities like Falls Church are only a few thousand votes.

Also Falls Church historically has some of the best turnout in Virginia.

[KingSweden]

Can someone confirm to me: is dwarves dragon a troll or are his views all over the place?

Yes

[Gass3268]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.

[Holmes]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

That's what it looks like but we need more data points to really know. Also some places report ED+EV whereas others just report ED turnout so it's hard to compare.

[Matty]

If Gillespie is doing worse than trump did in rural Virginia, but better than trump in nova, would that mean his lead will be less than trump's throughout the night but decline at a smaller rate?

[Gass3268]

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There were only 41,214 voters for Governor in 2013. So Alexandria is already at 78.9% of 2013.

[MAINEiac4434]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.

Turnout was 15% at 11 in Bristol (was 15.2% in Charlottesville and Fairfax at 9:00) and Isle of Wight County was at only 25% at noon.

[Jeppe]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0

I'm keeping track of turnout reports here too, for reference.

[Yank2133]

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There were only 41,214 voters for Governor in 2013. So Alexandria is already at 78.9% of 2013.

Damn, that is encouraging.

[Dr. Arch]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kwE1_XMLOZy-WWDRS5Jzf1I-anVbT2OH7w1g4QFL_Zs/edit#gid=0

I'm keeping track of turnout reports here too, for reference.

Nice. You should consider putting the 2013/2016 turnouts somewhere for comparison. That would really push your sheet to the next level.

[Matty]

How much of that is due to simple population growth?

[Holmes]

Judging by Bosse's turnout tracker, turnout is abysmal in GOP areas and better in Democratic areas.

Not enough reports coming from the rural areas to really know.

Turnout was 15% at 11 in Bristol (was 15.2% in Charlottesville and Fairfax at 9:00) and Isle of Wight County was at only 25% at noon.

Yeah, but there are a lot more Republican areas in Virginia than that.

[Holmes]

How much of that is due to simple population growth?

This is % turnout, not raw number of votes.

[Deblano]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

Expect all races in Virginia to get nationalized from now on as the media follows politics like a sports game.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

Expect all races in Virginia to get nationalized from now on as the media follows politics like a sports game.

Cuz every Washington-based journo lives in NoVa.

[2016]

For those who want to compare VA 2013 with VA 2017 here are some numbers from the Virginia 2013 Exit Poll:

Gender

Male 49%
Female 51%

Vote by Age

18-24 6%
25-29 7%
30-39 13%
40-49 20%
50-64 36%
65+ 18%

Vote by Race

White 72%
Black 20%
Latino 4%
Asian 1%
Other 2 %

Vote by Ideology

Liberal 20%
Moderate 44%
Conservative 36%

Vote by Party ID

Democrats 37%
Republicans 32%
Independents 31%

Are you a College Graduate

Yes 61%
No 39%

Vote by Region

D.C. Suburbs 18%
Nothern Virginia Exurbs 15%
Central/Western Virginia 22%
Richmond Area/Eastern Va. 26%
Tidewater Area 18%

[Anna Komnene]

Can someone please explain to me why a state that voted for Hillary by 6 points has the magnifying class of America on it?

Aside from wanting to see your side win, this is (probably) not at all useful to extrapolate onto 2018 trends

It's election day and the NJ race isn't close, so VA is the biggest thing to talk about. That and a lot of political correspondents work in DC for obvious reasons, so VA politics stand out to them.

If you're talking about the Atlas forum... well because it's a politics forum?

[Donerail]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

no one cares. get a twitter for this kinda sh*t