🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[Mike88]

New government, new thread.

Older threads:

Portugal's politics and elections
Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

With the 10 March 2024 election now set and done, the "Costism era" comes to a close. There is a new government, very minority and very unstable, plus, more elections in the horizon, regional, local, presidential, and... another snap general election in the short term? We'll see. So, time for a new thread.

Political summary:

President of the Republic: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD) 2016-Incumbent
Prime Minister: Luís Montenegro (PSD) 2024-Incumbent
Leader of the Opposition (unofficial): Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) 2024-Incumbent
Speaker of Parliament: José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD) 2024-Incumbent

General Election results since 1975:

Image link
- AD coalition between PSD, CDS and PPM in 1979, 1980 and 2024;
- FRS coalition between PS and other leftwing parties in 1980;
- PCP ran alone in 1975 and 1976; Between 1979 and 1985 ran in APU coalition, and since 1987 in CDU coalition;
- PàF coalition between PSD and CDS in 2015;

Schedule political events during 2024:

- 26 May 2024: Madeira snap regional elections;
- 9 June 2024: European Parliament elections;

Welcome to the new thread Portugal's politics and elections 4.0.

[Mike88]

This Tuesday, 2 April 2024, at 6pm local time, Luís Montenegro's cabinet will be sworn in, at Ajuda National Palace, by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

Outgoing PM Costa, in power for nearly 9 years (2015-2024), gave his "final goodbye" on social media, with a picture of him waving goodbye, with the title saying "Thank you":

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1774872644300439879

[Mike88]

Montenegro's cabinet swearing in ceremony: Montenegro puts "pressure" on the PS to let him govern, while Marcelo warns that "time is short".

The 24th Constitutional Government is already in office. The swearing in ceremony was held this afternoon at Ajuda National Palace in Lisbon. In his speech, President Marcelo thanked the Portuguese people for the high turnout rate on March 10th, saying that it showed that people have "faith in democracy". He also pointed that, even though it was a narrow victory, voters sided with the "moderate side" and not the radicals, but warned Montenegro that time, in theory, may be long but in practice is short, taking into account all the challenges ahead. He went on saying he will support and cooperate with the government but gave it 4 warnings: The international scene, the economic and social situation, the complicated Parliamentary scenario and the limited time to put forward policies.

After the President, it was PM Montenegro's turn to give a speech. Montenegro said that the internal and external situation is very complex and that both the government and the opposition have responsabilities, pointing that it would be unforgivable for politics becoming "the aggravating factor and not the solution". Here he talked directly to the PS, saying the Socialists must decide if they will be a "democratic opposition" or a "democratic blockade", pressing that he's not a PM "on shift" and wants to last 4 and a half years, suggesting that those who let the government's program pass, should let it complete its full term. Regarding the budget surplus, Montenegro warned that the idea of "full coffers" is wrong and dangerous, but that his strategy is to cut taxes in order to shore up the economy. Montenegro also promised a "broad understanding" regarding corruption and will ask all parties in Parliment to put forward their policies and then the best ones should be picked. He concluded his speech by quoting Pope Francis, saying that "All, all, all" count, and Portuguese poet Luís Vaz de Camões, saying "May the Government have a long time because we are lost and laboured".

This is the fifth time in Portuguese democracy that President and Prime Minister are from the same party: Soares-Guterres (1995-96); Sampaio-Guterres (1996-2002); Sampaio-Sócrates (2005-06); Cavaco-Passos (2011-15); Marcelo-Montenegro (2024-present).

[Mike88]

One of the first decisions of the new government was to change the "controversial" Government logo introduced by Costa around 2 years ago:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1775252048256143696

The new Government has already recovered the old logo, with the website now available and discarding the modern logo adopted - with some controversy - by the previous executive.

[Mike88]

honestly yeah, the new logo sucked. Looks like an Italian flag with wonky proportions and a weird yellow spot. I have no idea what Costa was thinking here.

Yeah, the goal of Costa's government was to create a logo "inclusive, plural and secular, with reinforced ecological awareness". Of course, the reaction was "Really? This? lol". Montenegro then accused Costa's government of "succumbing Portugal's historic and identity references" and promised to bring back the old logo if he became Prime Minister.

[Mike88]

Pedro Nuno Santos "responds" to PM Montenegro: "We are not obligated to support the government" and accuses Montenegro of beginning to play "the victim card".

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1775638102368817617

Pedro Nuno Santos shakes off the pressure to "support" the Government and warns that Montenegro is victimizing itself by thinking about elections

24 hours after the swearing in ceremony and also after some criticism for not being present, Pedro Nuno Santos appeared to respond to PM Luis Montenegro's speech. PNS pointed that Montenegro speech was much more focused on the opposition rather than in Portugal, and that the government is already acting like a "victim". He said that the speech had no vision, no ambition for the country and pressed that the PS is not "obligated" to support this government, even if that's the wish of many people in the PSD. Pointing that he saw the speech as "blackmail", PNS said that there are much more similarities, in terms of policies between PSD an CHEGA, rather than with the PS. Regarding the budget, Nuno Santos, once again, said it will be very dificult for the party to let it pass, saying that his job is to defend the Socialists' manifesto and that the role of the PS will never be of the "crutch" of the PSD.

[Mike88]

The "new" logo was terrible, but the fact this is the first thing the government did and the reasoning for it are unfortunate. Probably an attempt to win over some of those low info Chega voters.

Well, in politics, and in much in life, image is everything and in this case it shows that there is a "new management" in the store, but also shows that they have very little power beyond changing the logo of the government.

[Mike88]

The Brazilian twins case is back: Health Inspection report concludes that there were illegal conducts and has sent the report to the Public Prosecutor.

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1775842143736852866

IGAS concludes that scheduling the twins' first appointment was illegal

The Brazilian twins case, that "haunted" President Marcelo and broke basically at the same time as Costa's resignation back in November 2023, had a new development today. The General Health Inspection finalized their report regarding the case and concluded that several illegal conducts were made. The report says that the appointment consultation for the twins was illegally made and violated the rules of the NHS, but the report clears Saint Mary Hospital, Lisbon, of any wrongdoing saying it just followed rules and orders. The report "blames" the then Health Secretary for the illegal appointement, after a meeting with the son of President Marcelo, Nuno Rebelo de Sousa. The report has now been sent to the Public Prosecutor in order to determine whether a crime has been committed.

[Mike88]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

[Mike88]

When is the earliest possible moment that the Montenegro Government collapses?

The earliest, earliest possible moment would be next week in the Government Program debate, as PCP will present a motion of rejection, but the PS has already said they will not support it, so the government will pass.

After this, there could be controversies, that could force motions in Parliament or "damaging" resignations, and then there's the budget vote in late October, where there is a high probability of the government losing. If they indeed lose, the government can opt to present a new budget, govern with the previous budget or ask Marcelo to dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

Assumming the Government Program passes, what's the mechanism to force new elections against Marcelo's and Montenegro's will ?

There isn't one, only the President can decide to call or not elections. However, the political situation could force Marcelo to call an election, even if that wasn't his preferred option.

[Mike88]

like I it off topic any monarchist in the new assembly? ((not talking about the ppm I mean personal monarchist))

I have no idea. In theory, CHEGA could have a few on their caucus but I'm not sure.

[Mike88]

Montenegro's 41 secretaries of state are sworn in, as President Marcelo is "haunted" again by the Brazilian twins case:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1776370117330284844

Montenegro's new cycle starts with Marcelo in trouble

It was a bit of a "bumpy" road to get the final list of the 41 secretaries of state of Montenegro's government. The list was expected by mid afternoon yesterday, but only late in the evening was the list unveiled after some post were still to be filled. The swearing in ceremony was held this Friday, 5 April, in Ajuda National Palace, but the event was "marked" by the revival of the Brazilian twins case.

The General Health Inspection report, released yesterday, has put again President Marcelo in a complicated position as new details from the report emerged, as it accuses the Presidency of the Republic of "impairing" the investigation by delaying the sending of emails between the Presidency and Marcelo's son. Marcelo responded to the accusation in the report saying he delayed the info because he thought the investigation was under secracy of justice rules. CHEGA is preparing to create a Parliamentary Committee to investigate the matter and wants President Marcelo to testify in Parliament.

[Mike88]

Added the Madeira election date to the title.

A few updates on this race: Parties have until 15 April to present lists to the local Courts, and PSD and CDS have already announced they will run in separate lists.

In the PSD-Madeira, after an unexpectedly close leadership ballot, under very "controlled", and controversial, circumstances by Albuquerque, the mood in the party is complicated. Some people, in high ranking government posts, are being sacked for, allegedly, opposing Albuquerque in the ballot. Albuquerque's opponent in the ballot, Manuel António Correia, rejects any "unity lists" for the regional elections saying he cannot be part of a project that "is the opposite of what he defends for the party and the islands."

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Q1: President Marcelo's approval:

32% Approve (+4)
25% Disapprove (-20)
39% Neither approve or disapprove (+15)
  4% Undecided (+1)

Q2: Should the President intervene more in this legislature?

62% Yes
30% No
  8% Undecided

Q3: How do you evaluate the choice of José Pedro Aguiar-Branco to preside over the Assembly of the Republic in the first two years of the legislature?

39% Positive
15% Negative
37% Neither positive or negative
  9% Undecided

Q4: How do you evaluate the PS' performance in making the election of the President of the AR viable?

51% Positive
16% Negative
26% Neither positive or negative
  7% Undecided

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

Q7: Who will be the leader of the Opposition?

53% Pedro Nuno Santos
35% André Ventura
12% Undecided

Q8: Expectations about the new PM’s performance?

31% Positive
27% Negative
35% Neither positive or negative
  7% Undecided

Q9: In general, how do you evaluate the choices for the new government?

34% Good
20% Bad
37% Neither good or bad
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 March and 3 April 2024. Polled 805 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

Exchange of letters between PM Montenegro and PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1777309604457668753

Pedro Nuno Santos sends a letter to Montenegro asking for an “agreement”

The day was marked by an exchange of letters between PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos and PM Luís Montenegro in order to reach "a deal to find solutions". It was PNS who started, sending a letter this Monday morning showing the will of the PS in working together with the government in order to reach for solutions in some areas of government. Nuno Santos highlighted career and wage progressions for public employees, NHS workers, security forces, teachers and Court staffs. He added that he's "certain" that a deal could be reached in 60 days in order to resolve these matters, before the summer recess. PM Montenegro responded 5 hours later, also by letter, saying he welcomes the availability of the PS, and labelled it as an act of "political responsibility and commitment". However, he warned the PS that negotiations with unions will still have to start pointed to PNS' government experience, that these negotiations can be complex, but assured that the government will work to surpass difficulties in "maximum speed". A meeting between the two would take place after the conclusion of negotiations with unions.

In an interview later on the evening, on CNN Portugal, Nuno Santos said that Montenegro's response was a bit "arrogant", adding that the PSD has no votes to pass a budget on its own.

[Mike88]

Passos Coelho "returns again": Former PSD PM presents controversial book against gender ideology and wokeism.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1777397029205069950

Passos Coelho: "I've been called a fascist several times"

As PNS and PM Montenegro were "exchanging" letters on who looks more open to dialogue, former PSD PM Pedro Passos Coelho returned to the spotlight to present a book, written by several authors, called "Identity and Family", which attacks against gender ideology, wokeism and the "culture of death". In the presentation, several well known people from the rightwing were present, which included CHEGA leader André Ventura. He talked with Passos Coelho in front of TV cameras and Passos, once again, pointed that he would like the PSD to reach a deal with CHEGA, saying the election results were a clear sign. Now, what was the goal of Passos Coelho with this whole action? The PSD, now in government, is distancing themselves from Passos comments, while the left is trashing and accuses Passos of adopting CHEGA's policies labeling them as "scary". Pundits also point that Passos could also be sending a "signal" to Montenegro that he isn't happy with the "No is no" strategy, and/or wanting to embarrass Montenegro with a clear statement on who still has the more power. Also, the launch for his possible 2026 Presidential campaign? Who knows, as it's his usual, Passos appears, "detonates the bomb", and then vanishes into thin air.

[Mike88]

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

What do people think the full term is??

21% say it'll last the whole term, but only ~10% think it'll last more than 2 years?

t
Only the ones who answered no on question 5 were asked question 6.

Yeah, forgot to add that to the question. The term of this government ends in 4 and a half years, October 2028. As the poll shows, 7 out of 10 people don't believe it will last long. But, curiously, the most voted option in the poll, 1 to 2 years, as I've posted before, has the interesting caveat that if this government is still in power on 9 September 2025, it is guaranteed to last another year, since Presidents at the end and beginning of their terms are prohibited from dissolving Parliament.

[Mike88]

With the government just one week in office, there's already a minister under "suspicion":

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1778171378572927477

Searches at the Cascais Chamber. Pinto Luz consultancy investigated in a second investigation

The Judiciary Police raided the City Hall building of Cascais city, Lisbon district, due to an ongoing investigation surrounding the City Hall's own production of surgical masks during the Covid-19 pandemic, using equipments from a Chinese company and supplying other municipalities. This was done in a building requalified by the City and then sold to same Chinese company that gave the mask equipments by the base price. Current Infrastructure's minister, Miguel Pinto Luz, was the deputy mayor during this deal but it seems that the case surrounding him is another one: There is accusations that during his 2019-2020 PSD leadership campaign, he used the Cascais City marketing agency for his campaign with City Hall money. The police also asked the PSD documents regarding that leadership campaign. Pinto Luz, however, says he has proof that he paid himself for the marketing services. The police said they just "collected information" and there are no formal suspects. The complaints were filed by PCP a long time ago.

[Mike88]

Former PM Costa's inquiry "leaves" the Supreme Court and goes to the Department of Investigation of the Public Prosecutor:

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1778437082949530039

CNN ALERT || The Supreme Court of Justice decided this Thursday to refer the investigation into former Prime Minister António Costa to the DCIAP.

The idea had been "floated" by Attorney-General Lucília Gago, but now it's official: The Supreme Court has refered the inquiry into former PM António Costa's role in the case that brought down his government, last November 2023, to the Departement of Investigation of the Public Prosecutor (DCIAP). The Court decided that as Costa is no longer Prime Minister, his case must now have the same treatment as any other ordinary citizen. His inquiry now basically goes back to square one as prosecutors will now have to analyse the case from scratch, meaning that a decision may take even longer.

[Mike88]

1st day of the Government's program debate: Montenegro announces inclusion of 60 policies from Opposition parties, plus tax cuts, while the Opposition calls him arrogant.

With two motions of rejection agaisnt his program, from BE and PCP, PM Montenegro entered in the Parliamentary debate with a speech in which he announced the inclusion of 60 policies from Opposition parties. He started the speech by throwing "shade" towards the PS, saying he did not reach power by "backroom deals" but by a direct mandate from the people and then he started listing the policies he proposes: Income tax cuts until the 8th bracket, negociations with teachers and police officers for higher wages, school exam in paper rather than in digital format, repeal of several housing policies from the previous PS government and an emergency plan for the NHS in 60 days. He said he's open to dialogue with all parties, but put "limits" to parties, especially PS and CHEGA, accusing the first to wanting to force the government to resolve in 60 days what the PS wasn't able to resolve in 3,050 days. And to CHEGA, Montenegro said that to them that there aren't "good or bad Portuguese" and that he rejects the speech of hate and radicalization. In the parties responses, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos accused Montenegro of being "arrogant" and that he doesn't understand why the PSD is asking for the PS support after rejecting the previous 9 PS budgets since 2015. Shortly after, PNS pressed the government to propose a motion of confidence. André Ventura, CHEGA leader, started ranting against Montenegro accusing him of wanting to "fall today" and accused the Government of blackmailing CHEGA. In response, Montenegro said that Ventura's tone shows he's not ready for high office. IL said they were disappointed with the government program, while BE accused the government of wanting to give "big jackpots" to special interests. PCP also criticized the government's program, and proposed tax cuts on electricity and gas. Rui Tavares, Livre leader, criticized Montenegro's posture of "approve now, talk later", while PAN also criticized the lack of "dialogue" from the government, challenging the government to sit down with all parties.

Tomorrow, parties will close arguments and vote on the motions of rejection.

[Mike88]

2nd day of the Government's program debate: Parliament rejects the motions of rejection against Montenegro's program.

Montenegro's government has now passed in Parliament, as MPs rejected the motions of rejection against the government's program. This morning, parties and the government gave their final arguments in the debate: Foreign affairs minister Paulo Rangel, in behalf of the government, said that negotiations weren't mandatory for the Government's program, but that it's only the base of those negotiations and said that the criticisms towards the 60 opposition policies in the program are unfair. The PS said they would vote "against the motions", even though they would later abstain, saying they will not be a "blockade opposition" and proposed 5 major policies from VAT reduction to end of tolls in several highways. Ventura's speech was heckled several times as he railed against the "invasion of immigrants" and accused the AD minority of governing with a PS budget challenging Montenegro to present an amending budget. IL said, again, that the program fell short, while BE said it was vague, incoherent and fragile. PCP said that voting in favour of the AD program is becoming "imprisoned" to the government, while Livre talked about foreign affairs by challenging Montenegro to defend a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine. CDS downplayed the motions, labeling them as "competition" between the left, while PAN warned about climate challenges. The results of the motions of rejection:

PCP motion:

138 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, CDS, PAN)
  13 In favour (BE, PCP, Livre)
  77 Abstention (PS)
    2 Absent (1 PS, 1 CHEGA)

BE motion:

137 Against (PSD, CHEGA, IL, CDS)
  13 In favour (BE, PCP, Livre)
  78 Abstention (PS, PAN)
    2 Absent (1 PS, 1 CHEGA)

[Mike88]

Confusion regarding income tax cuts: Finance minister says around 200 million euros, which seems to contradict Montenegro's speech.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1778932487072202856

After all, Montenegro's IRS shock is six times lower than Costa's: Pedro Nuno accuses Government of "scam"

During the government program debate, PM Montenegro said that the government would cut 1,5 billion euros in taxes in 2024. Pundits and the media assumed that this would be a new 1,5 billion tax cut, but this wasn't the whole reality, as this includes the 1,3 billion tax cut from former PM Costa's 2024 budget adding a new 200 million cut, sort of, as the final numbers are still being calculated. The announcement was made by Finance minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento on a RTP1 interview, which generated much confusion, so much so that one of Montenegro's deputy ministers, Manuel Castro Almeida, had to acknowledged that there may have been an "error in communication", although pointing that a "storm was being made in a glass of water".

The media and the Opposition, however, are pissed: PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos accused the government of "fraud and scam" and many newspapers editors are furious with the Government because they printed headlines of the "big tax cut" that wasn't what it seemed like, and now look like "fools". Pundits also criticize the government's blunt failure in communication and deception.

[Mike88]

Looks like a good start for the new regime

The PSD using the "Costa playbook" of announcing big things that in reality are basically nothing, is funny.

Besides the blunt miscalculation of the government's communication, there are two things behind this: First, there is no money. The budget numbers until February are showing that the surplus is falling and it could well turn into a deficit real soon. And second, besides tax cuts, the government promised to increase wages to teachers, nurses, doctors, police officers and others, so, there are a lot of people to please at the same time, and money doesn't stretch. Plus, then there's the supplementary budget pressure, as PS and CHEGA want to force that budget in order to be "free" to reject the 2025 budget, but Montenegro doesn't like that idea and wants to put all preasure in the 2025 budget, forcing PS and CHEGA to let the budget pass. Balancing fiscal responsibility with growing spending when the economy doesn't give back, it's like squaring the circle.

[Mike88]

Meta restricts CHEGA's Facebook account for 10 years. Ventura blames other parties and promises to file a legal complaint:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1779486350846152804

Facebook restricts Chega's account for 10 years

Meta, Facebook's owner, has restricted CHEGA's facebook account for 10 years. In the next decade, the party cannot post images, videos or make live contents. The "last straw" seems to have been the posting of a video of a woman, of gypsy ethnicity, who violently shaved her mother's hair in order to kidnap her two daughters that were under the custody of their grandmother by a Court ruling. CHEGA and Ventura has condemned Meta's decision saying they are being "censored" and that the freedom of choice is being "taken away" from the Portuguese. The party also blames other parties for the restrictions imposed and promises to send the case to the Courts and to Parliament.

[Mike88]

PM Montenegro's first foreign visit: PM goes to Madrid and doesn't side with Spain in recognizing Palestine, and refuses to comment the "IRSgate".

In his first visit overseas, PM Montenegro headed to the Spanish capital to meet with PM Pedro Sanchéz. In a press conference after the meeting, Sanchéz thanked Montenegro for picking Spain as his first visit as Portuguese PM, which Montenegro replied that no crisis will damage the relationship between both countries. Regarding the issue of the recognition of a Palestinian State, Montenegro didn't side with Spain and defends that Palestine's recognition as a State should be based on a "multilateral basis, within the European Union and within the United Nations". Regarding the ongoing "IRSgate", Montenegro didn't make many comments, only saying he would not discuss internal issues in foreign land, but insisted that he will govern to fulfill his electoral promisses and will not govern by or for newspaper headlines and openings of news hours.