Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What a bizarre night and it's not even close to being over!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

According to NYT:

FL 54% chance of going Republican
AZ 59% chance of going Republican

Can someone explain how there's still such a non-negligible chance that the Republicans lose these states?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Except that it appears Tester will win in Montana.  Really, I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but it basically boils down to being incorrect on the House and picking a GOP Senate correctly but being off in terms of numbers.  That's not all that impressive a prediction.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

Florida is pretty well sealed IMO, but I agree that people should wait until all of the numbers are in before congratulating themselves on predictions that they only got half-right. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction.  

Bear in mind that Missoula is still stuck at 73 percent reporting -- but you are correct, it's too early to outright call it.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

And to be fair, the Westboro Baptist Church is like it's own political party: they hate EVERYBODY.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble.    Ever see quotes like this?

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Yeah this whole "our side would never DREAM of being uncivil! We just want to respectfully talk and discuss ike gentlemen" is ridiculous.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Dems are happy to take the House and Senate in 2020 and 2022 are Dem years. This is the peak for the GOP

Stop lol.....

Yeah it's a BETTER map in 2020 for Dems with the Republicans on defense, but it's ludicrous to say that 2020 will be a Dem year outright.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Love that like 95% of the reaction Online is either ridiculous, excessive DOOM or delusional optimism.

"We took the House, but the Senate is lost until the year 3000.  Maybe then we'll be able to flip Saturn, but Venus is a Longshot Republican stronghold."

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NYT thinks the final margin in Florida is Scott winning by around 6,000, but there are enough error bars on that for Nelson to still have an outside shot.

So if accurate, Scott wins by 0.07 percent.  Geez, it's almost as though Florida produces some harrowing nailbiters or something.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Is that 10am MST?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

That's some Florida 2000 level of uncounted votes haha

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Why is the West notoriously horrible at counting votes on time?

We gotta ride the votes in on horseback Red Dead Redemption style.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A friendly wager between Ben Kenobi and myself:

If you are confident that R's will gain seats, how about a friendly wager on it?  Specifically, if the D's end up with fewer than 195 total House seats, I'll change my avatar to match your current one until the end of November.  But if they end up with 195 or more, you change your avatar to I-GA for the same period.  Agreed?

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Which is sort of my point, no? Mine at least has polls that reflect the outcome.

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Why not straight up D takes the house you win. D falls short, I win. Simpler, and that's really the crux of the matter, no?

Fair enough.  It's a bet.

Ben, you can change your avatar now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Florida down to just 53% chance of Scott on NYT. A true tossup.

Why?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Also:

Huh interesting map.  Why so many in that portion of the countyl?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

35+ seats in the house
At least a 7% popular vote victory
Net loss in senate of 2, maybe even 1 depending on Florida despite the worst possible map
7 governors mansions gained
This is a wave my friends

As soon as the words "net loss" appear, the "wave" argument becomes problematic. 

Normally, the party that doesn't control the presidency loses. This is within the normal range. It is not as strong as the shifts in 1994, 2010, both in terms gains and total numbers of seats.  The gain was a bit better than 2006, by one seat, but the total seats are much lower; in that one the winning party gained 6 Senate seats. 

I'm still of the view that it wasn't a blue wave, but something else altogether that doesn't have a pre-determined term.

What do you make of people claiming it was a red wave?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Scott and DeSantis supporters are blocking the entrance to Broward County SOE.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2

https://www.local10.com/news/elections/protesters-gather-outside-broward-board-of-elections-headquarters

Not blocking.  Protesting.

To use a very frequent question from Trump-supporters:

"What are they protesting?"