Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

[Skill and Chance]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

[Skill and Chance]

At any rate, given this will likely be the last cycle that the GOP gets to draw maps in an uncontested fashion, it makes little sense for them to take on potentially huge risks that could wipe them out prematurely. They can either cushion the fall and make it a much more gradual one - where they maintain a majority of the congressional delegation and/or state legislature for another 8-10 years - or they could roll the dice and potentially cost themselves way more far sooner than they would otherwise lose it (this is especially true in the General Assembly). The VRA of course helps temper their worse temptations in this regard, but I don't see the GAGOP trying to overextend themselves given the clear trajectory of the state at this point.

Speaking of which, could the control of the lower house be in play in a scenario where Trump loses GA?  At the very least, I'd expect a Dem performance equivalent to VA 2008 would flip it?

Perhaps - I'm not sure of exactly where along the sliding scale the dam would break, but the General Assembly performance lagged the gubernatorial performance by roughly 7.5 points in PV alone, and the congressional PV by 4 points.

Contest	GOP	DEM	GOP	DEM	Margin
Governor	50.2	48.8	1978408	1923685	R+1.4
US House	52.3	47.7	1987191	1814469	R+4.6
State House	54.3	45.6	1884211	1582161	R+8.7
State Senate	54.4	45.6	1914110	1603472	R+8.8

I have to imagine there were a bunch of outer ATL seats Abrams ended up winning that legislative Dems didn't seriously contest?

Seems like the smart move for GA Republicans would be to draw something favorable but nice looking and then propose a constitutional amendment to lock in anti-county/municipality splitting rules?

I also think we need to seriously consider the possibility that SCOTUS ends up ruling that VRA doesn't impose any restrictions on redistricting practices at all.

[Skill and Chance]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

This is what I expect will happen.  There will be no appetite to MD-02/03/04 the North GA mountains to Atlanta.

[Skill and Chance]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

That's absolutely hideous.  I think even the initial NC 2011 map was better than that.

A district going from the southern border to the northern border should never happen in Georgia, ever.

I expect them to go 9R/5D, likely by flipping GA-02 and putting all 5 of the Dem seats in Atlanta.

I wonder what a court map would look like?  I would think 9R/5D, but with the 9th R seat not as safe, or perhaps 8/4/2?

[Skill and Chance]

What's the case for 55% VAP being the upper limit? Given that the Supreme Court isn't exactly keen on defending the VRA, surely there's an incentive to push the envelope there? More generally, it looks like it shouldn't be that hard to remove largely white precincts from the 3 VRA districts and replace them with more Hispanic/Asian precincts from GA-6 and GA-7.

The east to west abomination won't satisfy the Gingles criteria, but it might be an effective way of packing GA-2 and freeing up space for other districts to bacon-slice the Atlanta metro.

Now

It really feels like the national environment is moving away from bacon-strip districts.   They're just not feasible anymore with so much public attention on them.   The days of connecting inner metros with far flung rural areas are probably over.

This.  Moderates of the legislature's own party are going to be very turned off by MD-02/03/04 style districts in this environment.  That having been said, there isn't much of a backdoor available to voters in GA to undo a gerrymander before the end of the decade (no referendum process, state courts are technically elected, but it's nonpartisan and historically incumbents basically never lose after they are appointed), so it is arguably one of the safer states for the legislature to push the limits in or, alternatively, keep updating the gerrymander every 2 years.

Right now, the primary limit on this in states like Georgia is the VRA, but courts really have been reluctant to aggressively apply it and it looks like they will only get less aggressive in 2021.  Now that JBE has been reelected with Republicans below the veto override threshold, there will be a 2021 test case to create a 2nd VRA protected district in Louisiana, but that will get appealed to the 5th Circuit, which, given its current composition, will probably rule that the VRA doesn't apply to redistricting at all.  I don't see Roberts and Kavanaugh going along with that, full stop, but I do think court changes to maps based on VRA will slow to a trickle in the 2020's. 

[Skill and Chance]

Since some mentioned GA-02 (if kept with a similar composition) being a swing district by the end of the decade despite being a VRA plurality/majority black district, I now wonder if something similar has ever happened.

Has a white Republican (with ~10% black support presumably) ever won a VRA black district? GA-02 seems like it would be extremely inelastic and titanium D despite the low margins

replace "black" with "hispanic" and you're basically describing TX-23. Will Hurd is a non-Hispanic Republican who has narrowly won three times against Hispanic Democrats even though the district is 68% Hispanic

Also with GA-2 specifically, the scenario you're describing actually almost happened in 2010, when Sanford Bishop held on by less than five thousand votes. I doubt it would happen in the upcoming decade, though, because honestly SW GA's white population is shrinking just as quickly as the black population.

There was also Joseph Cao in the 2010 runoff for LA-02, although that was a very exceptional situation and he is not white. 

However, increasing urban/rural polarization is clearly impacting minority communities as well (see NC-09), and it's not unreasonable to wonder if Republicans could compete well in some substantially rural VRA districts (e.g. GA-02, MS-02, a VRA district on a 6 seat AL map, one or more seats in South Texas on a 39 CD TX map, the plurality-black rural state house district in VA that nearly flipped last year, etc.) by the end of this decade. 

[Skill and Chance]

Since some mentioned GA-02 (if kept with a similar composition) being a swing district by the end of the decade despite being a VRA plurality/majority black district, I now wonder if something similar has ever happened.

Has a white Republican (with ~10% black support presumably) ever won a VRA black district? GA-02 seems like it would be extremely inelastic and titanium D despite the low margins

replace "black" with "hispanic" and you're basically describing TX-23. Will Hurd is a non-Hispanic Republican who has narrowly won three times against Hispanic Democrats even though the district is 68% Hispanic

Also with GA-2 specifically, the scenario you're describing actually almost happened in 2010, when Sanford Bishop held on by less than five thousand votes. I doubt it would happen in the upcoming decade, though, because honestly SW GA's white population is shrinking just as quickly as the black population.

There was also Joseph Cao in the 2010 runoff for LA-02, although that was a very exceptional situation and he is not white. 

However, increasing urban/rural polarization is clearly impacting minority communities as well (see NC-09), and it's not unreasonable to wonder if Republicans could compete well in some substantially rural VRA districts (e.g. GA-02, MS-02, a VRA district on a 6 seat AL map, one or more seats in South Texas on a 39 CD TX map, the plurality-black rural state house district in VA that nearly flipped last year, etc.) by the end of this decade. 

I'm not sure what the voting behaviour of the Lumbee tells us about the voting behaviour of black-majority seats.

The other rural counties with significant black populations also swung notably right vs. their recent history.

[Skill and Chance]

Well as it currently stands republicans can't draw away the black district in a state like AL, but if that part of the VRA is reinterpreted, there's little that could be done to protect those districts, since it could be argued the motivation us partisan.  Your pompous attitude isn't necessary, if your points held any water, you could stick with those.

I apologize if I seem pompous at all to you, but your posts betray the fact that you are very poorly informed about the topic you're attempting to speak authoritatively about, and when I've attempted to explain it to you, instead of listening you are just doubling down and insisting your incorrect interpretation is the truth. It has honestly become incredibly frustrating.

Let me try to speak clearly here. Attempting to argue intent and motivation is meaningless because US Voting Rights law does not work that way. If redistricting creates an illegal racial gerrymander, then it is an illegal racial gerrymander because all that matters is OUTCOME.regardless of intent. And this isn't something the court can magically reinterpret anyway because it's the explicit word of the law! The Voting Rights Act of 1965 (as amended in 1982), Section 2, "Results Test". Look it up, if you want to keep insisting I'm wrong the burden of explaining yourself is on you.

But it passes the gingles test.  It is large enough and compact enough to make one maybe even 2 SMDs.  It is politically cohesive, OC whites consistently vote Republican.  As to the 3rd part, that's questionable.  Do non whites consistently vote to defeat the white candidate of choice?  That depends, they did in 2018.  If it keeps happening over and over then there would be a good case, it hinges on that. 

No, this is simply not true at all. Even if you whites were suddenly treated as a protected racial minority (they aren't, and shouldn't be) the white community of Orange County is absolutely not politically cohesive nor is there any racial bloc voting

You are the uninformed one.  The voting rights act doesn't create any specific rules for redistricting.  The results test was interpreted to create the Gingles Test, but that isn't part of the law.  Liberal judges have taken FAR more liberty in twisting the meaning of laws than I'm suggesting.  Section 2 does not even have to apply to redistricting at all. 

As for OC, the white community of OC does vote consistently republican and the non white community voted as a bloc to defeat the white candidates of choice.  This has not happened enough to really make a case for such a district, but it might.  It is disgusting you favor special districts for POC in majority white states but oppose those districts for white minorities in majority POC states.  It is very clear why your side is intent on opening the borders, it's all about power. 

John Roberts has written opinions striking down districts as racial gerrymanders.  He just takes a narrower view of it than the Dem appointees.  There is no way he's signing on to a "VRA 2 does not apply to redistricting" blanket ruling.  Also given how Kavanaugh handled the case last year on racial bias in jury selection, writing the opinion upholding a historical decision that a trial is invalid if jurors are struck based on race (admittedly a different issue, but the concept is similar to racial gerrymandering), I don't think he's in play to sign on to that kind of opinion either. 

I imagine there will be some states that try to push the limits next time, but I would be very surprised if it's any of the places where Democrats came close to winning statewide in 2018.  Brian Kemp only won by 1.4% and his behavior on other policy issues suggests he knows he is on thin ice in 2022.  In Texas and Florida, better-than-Clinton results with Hispanic voters put Cruz, DeSantis, and Scott over the line statewide.  The statewide GOP won't want to sign off on anything so aggressive as to compromise their gains with that community.  Democrats may have become competitive "just in time" to prevent radical gerrymanders in some of the largest GOP leaning states.

Something like AL trying to eliminate the VRA district when they lose a seat and then take it to SCOTUS is much more plausible as an aggressive redistricting move, because they have basically nothing to fear from a statewide backlash.   

[Skill and Chance]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f320c87d-0c0f-4ee8-ae06-bd4eb4b95aed
A Georgian Experiment. The Second helps pack Atlanta while still being a SW VRA seat.
1 - R+8.62, Trump+15.1
2 - D+15.93, Clinton+35.2, (51.3% Black)
3 - R+16.36, Trump+27.5
4 - D+33.32, Clinton+70.6, (54.0% Black)
5 - D+31.47, Clinton+67.4, (54.3% Black)
6 - R+20.88, Tump+29.2
7 - R+21.92, Trump+41.8
8 - R+9.38, Trump+18.1
9 - R+20.95, Trump+33.5
10 - R+18.16, Trump+33.7
11 - R+19.72, Trump+29.3
12 - R+9.03, Trump+18.4
13 - D+24.20, Clinton+52.9, (54.2% Black)
14 - R+18.34, Trump+30.5

That GA-02 is definitely going to fail the 2012 NC-01/VA-03 test, and while the VA-03 case reached SCOTTUS during the 4-4 deadlock in 2016, Roberts concurred in striking down the 2012 version of NC-01 as a racial gerrymander.  The better bet for getting a 10-4 map upheld should be just explicitly moving the 4th VRA seat to Atlanta than trying to connect the current GA-02 to it. 

[Skill and Chance]

A 6-8 DEM gerrymander map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a82eae1f-50ee-4771-ace0-b20be61ba3dc

CD-01: Clinton +14.3, minority-majority
CD-02: Clinton +9.1, minority-majority
CD-03: Clinton +15.9, minority-majority
CD-04: Trump +44.3
CD-05: Trump +39
CD-06: Clinton +20.1, minority-majority
CD-07: Clinton +63.9, minority-majority
CD-08: Trump +47.5
CD-09: Trump +50.6
CD-10: Trump +26.6
CD-11: Clinton +34.1, minority-majority
CD-12: Clinton +10.4, minority-majority
CD-13: Clinton +23.2
CD-14: Trump +62.2

This CD-03 would be at risk of being struck down for the 2012 NC-01/VA-03 reason.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if the senate results change the GOP game plan here?  They could decide to play it extra safe or could just as easily decide to go for broke because it's clearly their last chance to draw the maps for a very long time. 

Also, the senate results mean there is now an opening for congress to strengthen VRA provisions in advance of redistricting. 

[Skill and Chance]

Somebody on RRH decided it was time to cut the Dem CD quota in Georgia down to 4 CD’s.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c76a08aa-466a-44e8-a548-ccc2be568e93

I replied by linking the map below that has five 50%+ BCVAP districts all of which are compact enough to trigger Gingles in my view. So well, you guessed it, illegal! 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2ded45e3-4c87-49b6-b0ce-9ecad601db89

It is far from certain that a 5th VRA district would be mandated in SW GA, and I think there is a good chance it will continue to be uncertain even after census figures are released. Looking at your map, I see a number of potential issues.

The 2nd District on your map will be underpopulated by 15,000 in 2019, and likely will be underpopulated by 20,000 or more with 2020 census numbers. Even if you introduce a sixth county split, cherry-picking the most black heavy neighboring precincts to remedy this population imbalance would still push the BCVAP down to just about 50% BCVAP on the mark. If you don't introduce further splits, you are very likely going to end up underneath the 50% mark.

Another thing worth mentioning is that given longstanding turnout differences in that part of Georgia, Whites were either the majority or plurality of voters in your district for the 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections, even before you add more precincts to it (which you will have to).

I also wonder if the 11th Circuit or SCOTUS (with their recent Trump appointees) would view a district that needs to split 5 counties (three of which are quite small) by cherry-picking the whitest precincts to leave out as "compact". Maybe they would, maybe they wouldn't, but it seems very odd to assume that the GOP wouldn't at least try to find out given that the worst remedy that would happen is reversion back to 9-5.

Actually think SCOTUS is going to be very reluctant to further loosen the VRA redistricting provisions or chuck them outright.  Roberts and Kavanaugh watch the news closely enough to know the biggest threat to SCOTUS as an institution would be taking a hatchet to the VRA while Dems control the senate.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... if the North Georgia R congresspeople won't consent to having their districts drawn into Atlanta like reverse MD-06's, that has pretty major implications statewide. 

[Skill and Chance]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it. 

[Skill and Chance]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

At the rate we are going a Dem could plausibly win Forsyth in 2030.  An optimal GOP map would bacon strip the mountains and not rely on it.  

A gerrymander should not overweigh what things might look like at the end of the decade. For most of the decade, a Hall-Forsyth-Milton CD is completely unwinnable for Democrats, and that is what matters. So what if it might have a chance at flipping by 2030? That is 4 out of 5 cycles where the GOP has a guaranteed win seat.

Well, the 2 big risks are a 2030 or 2026 GOP president midterm.  2026 is probably too soon for Forsyth but IDK. 

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

[Skill and Chance]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

That would be an absolutely horrible precedent to lock in gerrymandering for generations, regardless of whom it would benefit in one particular cycle!  Thankfully, there's zero indication Roberts/Kav/ACB would go that far.

[Skill and Chance]

The map we'd get if Georgia Rs were smart:

Someone clearly objected to drawing the northern mountain CDs into Atlanta.  That's my biggest takeaway from this, even if it gets tweaked significantly. 

[Skill and Chance]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.   

[Skill and Chance]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.  

House flips first I assume as you can't reach as far. Anyway one seat is basically gone by 2024 at Trump +3 in 2020 so dems will have 2024.There is one iffy Savanah suburban seat but I think that would be seat 29 or 30 for dems.

Anyway there are 3 stripped Cobb seats with areas in Cherokee and Bartow.(37,32,56). All around 56% Trump. Finally one seat in outer Gwinett and some further areas which is 58% Trump. I would say the senate falls in 2028 or 2030 while the house falls in 2026.

Not sure about this.  As we saw in VA, it's more likely for smaller rural VRA districts to give out than in a state senate or CD map where the VRA districts have to take in cities or larger towns.  If they have some 55% Biden plurality-black districts in South Georgia on the state house map, watch out. 

[Skill and Chance]

Smart. A fourth Dem seat in the Atlanta suburbs is pretty much necessary.

Yes, but it's interesting they aren't going for broke with GA-02 into Atlanta and GA-06/07/11 into the mountains MD-03 style.  This is probably their last chance to draw the map, and the state supreme court is unanimously conservative. 

[Skill and Chance]

Here we go:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1460989010927628289

So is this more aggressive than the senate map on GA-06? 

All of Forsyth with part of Fulton seems like it won't last the decade.   

[Skill and Chance]

GA 02 numbers?

About Biden +10 or 11

Phew. Lfromnj was right

Biden+10 in an inelastic area is clearly enough for Dems in 2022-24, but this is a plausible VA HoD style GOP flip by the end of the decade.  Also note they did keep it at 51% black VAP.

They clearly did enough with GA-06 here for the short term at Trump+15, but for the longer term, note GA-11 is also only Trump +15.

GA-01 (the seat with Savannah) shed some inland near unanimous R counties and went from Trump+12 to Trump+10.  Could be some long term risk there.