From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[2016]

This is fun & exiting. Keep this up!

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

VA-07 instead of (or in addition to) VA-05, right?

I think VA has 4 competitive House Districts this year
VA-2 (Taylor)
VA-5 (Open, Garrett retiring)
VA-7 (Brat)
VA-10 (Comstock)

[2016]

I'd rather be Braun than Donnelly in IN-SEN looking at the Congressional Races from that State. 70+% is counted in IN-1 (that's a Democrat stronghold). Likewise IN-7 (Indianpolis Metro & Suburbs) is counted half (50 %).
Republicans holding IN-8, IN-9. All of the sudden doesn't look so bad for the GOP considering how bad the Early Exits were.

VA which closes soon is big on the House...3 competitive Seats VA-10 (Comstock), VA-5 and VA-2. Senate should be a cakewalk for Kaine.

One thing to keep in mind when analyzing the results is that there is no direct relation between the %s in in different types of races. For each race, Democratic, Republican, and Other votes are drawn randomly and independently from each other. So unfortunately you can't really infer whether the remaining votes in the IN-SEN race will be good for Dems or good for Reps based on which House districts have reported more or less.

It would have been really cool to do it so that you could infer that, but I thought that was more effort than it would really have been worth.

Thanks Still, a nice little lead there in IN-SEN - 24K Votes for Braun with almost 2/3 Vote in. We don't know though if Indianapolis Metro has been counted fully cuz then I'd breathe much easier.

If Braun can hang onto this Lead he is probably going to safe the Senate for Republicans.

SC-GOV TOO CLOSE TO CALL based on Exits ought to be a shocker for Republicans though.

And Brat being tied in VA-7 in the Exits is undoubtedly bad News for the GOP as well. Hopefully these Exits are off too somewhat.

Still, this is very exiting watching this all come in.

[2016]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Not sure. IN-8 swings back and forth.

Hostettler (R) represented that District from 1995-2007
Ellsworth (D) 2007-2011
Bucshon (R) 2011-present

I think VA-7 and VA-10 are more problematic if Comstock & Brat lose when you look at the bigger picture.

[2016]

If IN-08 is still too close to call, the GOP is looking at at 60+ seat loss. That's a district that should never be vulnerable.

Not sure. IN-8 swings back and forth.

Hostettler (R) represented that District from 1995-2007
Ellsworth (D) 2007-2011
Bucshon (R) 2011-present

I think VA-7 and VA-10 are more problematic if Comstock & Brat lose when you look at the bigger picture.

Although VA-7 is traditionally Republican, it is rated tossup by Cook Political Report. The fact that the exit poll is tied may be bad for GOP hopes to outright hold the house, but I wouldn't be so sure it means a huge 60+ seat tsunami.

What I would be more concerned for Republicans about are the exit polls in seats like GA-06, GA-07, GA-12, SC-01, SC-02, and SC-05. Those all have Dems very close and/or ahead, and those seats are all rated at least lean R (and in the case of GA-12 and SC-02, are generally considered completely safe R, not even on the board).

On the other hand, remember IN-02 and IN-05 also had Dems up in the exit polls, but so far are looking pretty solid for the GOP. Exit polls can be wrong, and with how many exit polls we have for house races, some of them will DEFINITELY end up being wrong, and some by quite a bit.

As you often said we have to wait until Votes get counted as Blitzer & King would say

[2016]

To be honest I'm not that optimistic like the Barr Campaign Folks are in KY-6. 84% in and a 10K Vote-lead for the Democrat. That sounds very difficult to make up. Looks like that will be the first Democratic House Pick-Up of the Night.

That would take the Magic Number for Democrats down to 22 from 23.

IN-8 (Bucshon) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth) looking good now. IN-5 is somewhat of a surprise that it closed down but then John King mentioned that the make-up of that District looks similar to OH-12.

IN-SEN...still a lot of Vote outstanding. That being said the Young-Bayh Race in 2016 did not get called until after 8pm.

I'm not too concerned about SC-GOV, happens very often that Democrats take a lead early and then the rual Vote comes in and it's checkmate.

I'm interested now what happens in South Florida. Curbelo got re-elected by a fingernail in 2016 (FL-26). FL-25 and FL-27 are also competitive.

[2016]

To be honest I'm not that optimistic like the Barr Campaign Folks are in KY-6. 84% in and a 10K Vote-lead for the Democrat. That sounds very difficult to make up. Looks like that will be the first Democratic House Pick-Up of the Night.

That would take the Magic Number for Democrats down to 22 from 23.

IN-8 (Bucshon) and IN-9 (Hollingsworth) looking good now. IN-5 is somewhat of a surprise that it closed down but then John King mentioned that the make-up of that District looks similar to OH-12.

IN-SEN...still a lot of Vote outstanding. That being said the Young-Bayh Race in 2016 did not get called until after 8pm.

I'm not too concerned about SC-GOV, happens very often that Democrats take a lead early and then the rual Vote comes in and it's checkmate.

I'm interested now what happens in South Florida. Curbelo got re-elected by a fingernail in 2016 (FL-26). FL-25 and FL-27 are also competitive.

Well, Barr seems to be closing a bit more.

I am interested in South Florida as well in particular.

Me too. Thanks for doing this. Really fun to watch. Democrats haven't won a House Race yet and we're getting close to 7.30 ET. I suspect though that this will change over the next Hour or so.

What a crazy Night already

[2016]

Keep in mind: I think ANY House Race that is within 0.5 of a Percentage Point has a Recount Provision I believe.

KY-6...WOW...what a close Race...570-Vote lead for McGrath. Where are those last 8% of Precincts? Is Fayette County (Lexington) all in? If yes Barr might pull this out.

HUGE DESCREPANCIES in the two Statewide Races in Florida. Rick Scott is up big while on the other side DeSantis is down big. A bit odd but then Scott in his last 4 years as Governor governed more like a Moderate while DeSantis is a conservative firebrand.

[2016]

The Bottom Line: Republicans doing much better than expected. Thus far Democrats have not taken away a single House Race.

[2016]

Florida Governor Total Vote 2014
5,940,898 Votes

Florida Governor tonight based on that Sheet

3,514,471 Votes

My guess estimate is that there could be still 3M outstanding Vote left to count in FL-GOV & FL-SEN Races.

Of Course your modelling will not be as sophisticated as real Campaign Modelling & Polling.
It's still pretty good though.

Looking forward to the 8pm Hour

[2016]

This is almost as stressful to follow as a real election!

I hesitate to say "good" to that, but that's the goal - to make it feel something like a preview of what election night 2018 might feel like.

I'm really enjoying this.

[2016]

Florida Governor Total Vote 2014
5,940,898 Votes

Florida Governor tonight based on that Sheet

3,514,471 Votes

My guess estimate is that there could be still 3M outstanding Vote left to count in FL-GOV & FL-SEN Races.

Of Course your modelling will not be as sophisticated as real Campaign Modelling & Polling.
It's still pretty good though.

Looking forward to the 8pm Hour

Something tells me that there's going to be a 21.86920227% increase in turnout as compared to 2014. Thinking about it for a minute, that is probably too much, but it's hard to really say until election day. Maybe not, since both Ds and Rs seem highly energized. Anyway, just a little voice is somehow telling me 21.86920227% increase for FL-GOV.

Total Vote 2012 FL POTUS Race

8,470,205

2016 Race

9,501,617

Just like in POTUS Races the Vote Share will increase in MidTerms as well. We'll have to see by how much but that can only by done when everything is in.

[2016]

I'm ready to call Donnelly the Winner in Indiana. He has a 25K Vote lead with only 4% left to report. That seems awfully big to overcome.

In FL-GOV Gillums extremism seems to hurt him.
Glad that Scott has now pulled into the lead in the FL-SEN Race.

SC-GOV reminds me of the Nikki Haley vs Vincent Sheheen Race 2010. Haley won in the end 51-47.  McMaster has closed the gap as the vote came in. I would put him now a Favourite to win this.

And I'm going on a limb and say that these MA, NH, MD GOV Exits are off in a very bad way. MA will not be that close in the end.

CT-GOV is somewhat of a surprise that they can't call it at Poll Closing. I thought Lamont would walk away with this.

On the House VA 2 (Rep. Scott Taylor) & VA 10 (Rep. Barbara Comstock) unless some dramtic things happening seem to be GONERS to me. On the other side Rep. Dave Brat (VA-7) doing much better than expected. Also VA-5 (Garrett retired) the Republican Candidate doing well there.

MO-SEN, TN-SEN are close as expected. Democrats have to run the table in the Senate if they want to get it.

[2016]

OK, I am probably going to drop back to 1 10-minute-update per day for a while now. That should ensure that it takes about a month to get to the end of election night at this point, where all the races are called.

2 per Day would be better I think.

1 x Morning
1 x Evening

Giving AZ, NV (Senate) as well as CA (House) your Election Night will probably go until 2-3 am in the Morning.

[2016]

FL-SEN is a bit too high. Nelson probably wouldn't have a 436K Vote lead.

AND IN-SEN is all but going to a Recount no matter who is ahead in the Final Count. It's well within 0.5 here.

[2016]

FL-SEN is a bit too high. Nelson probably wouldn't have a 436K Vote lead.

It is currently pretty close to the Quinnipiac poll (although that was definitely the best recent poll for Nelson). Remember there are still quite a few votes to count, however.

Scott is not going to close a +400K lead with 76% in so that seems to me a D-HOLD here. In the FL-GOV Race Gillum has a near +236K lead with 86% in so that's GONE barring some big Vote counting errors like we saw in 2000.

That being said, this doesn't seem to me a D-Wave. DEMS have only picked up one House Seat (Curbelo).

[2016]

Looks like Nelson has pulled AHEAD again....a bit confusing when you say Scott is leading because

FL-SEN

D 3,289,932
R 3,243,241

That's a 46,691 Vote lead for Nelson.

[2016]

I agree with the Republican Strategist here. Republicans doing better then expected.

That Braun Senate WIN is huge because that essentially blocks the Democratic Path to a Senate Majority. I also think Karl Rove on FOX is right: Winning Indiana but losing Missouri, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota? Things do not work that way. IN-SEN may very well foreshadow what is going to happen in MO, TN, ND and MT.

FL-SEN is very close now. Where do the Final 5% come from? Are they from Scott or Nelson Territory?

In TN-SEN we will probably witnessing the same thing that happened in SC-GOV that as the Vote goes up Republican Marsha Blackburn will edge ahead. Only 55% in.

Moderate Governors like Phil Scott in Vermont & Charlie Baker in Massachusetts have been reelected.

The only bright Spot for Dems is that they won FL-GOV for the 1st Time since 1994.
80% in Ohio, the Question is? Are there 400K Votes left in Cuyahoga for Cordray to pull this off? Doubtful.

MD-GOV might be closer then expected. I still think Hogan is going to win.

As far as the House is concerned it could only be a bare minimum Majority for the Democrats.

[2016]

I think you missed North Dakota in the 9 pm ET Poll Closing.

And you mixed up Illinois and Minnesota Governor. Walz is running in MN while Pritzker is in IL.

[2016]

Republicans winning in Indiana but losing in Tennessee & Texas would not work in real Time I think.

[2016]

With each and every minute passed this Night is getting even more suspensful.

I agree with the General Consensus though: The Democrats will take the House but a decent margin.
The Senate though has tilted a bit in the Republicans Favour.

FL-SEN (99% in)
Nelson (D) up by 17,920 Votes....49.3 to 49.0
My guess is that he needs to add another 15K net gain to get this out of the Automatic Recount Range under FL State Law

MO-SEN (93% in)
Hawley (R) up by 25,840 Votes
I would say McCaskill has still a shot to win this if there are enough Votes out St. Louis & Kansas City which trend to come in last. We don't know that though for sure!

TN-SEN (96% in)
Blackburn (R) up by 18,534 Votes
Ditto for Bredesen here too as we don't know where the last 4% of the Vote is coming from.

TX-SEN (88% in)
O'Rourke (D) up 30,570 Votes
Republicans should feel more comfortable here although the Democrat is leading. In TX Urban Vote comes in earlier than Rural Vote so if this trend continues Cruz should squeak this out.

AZ-SEN
Waaay too early to call.

Now to the real surprises of the Night, the Governor Races. The Late Polls expected Democrats to run the Table and they have picked up IL, FL, MI and ME.

That being said in CT Lamont is in a Dogfight against an underfunded Republican Opponent. Maybe Governor Dan Malloys bad Approvals are hurting Lamont?
In RI the current Governor Raimondo is down to her 2014 Opponent Allan Fung. That is a surprise with 87% in. In TX Abbott is leading but by a very underwhelming margin. The signs in Oklahoma are good as well as in WI, AZ and KS although it's too early to draw to any conclusions. It looks like Republicans will retain New Hampshire as Sununu is up over 30K with 96% in.

And in GA this will go to a Runoff where Adams is the decided Underdog.

[2016]

It looks more like that we won't have a definitive Decision in the Senate TONIGHT with Recounts in Florida (official) and Indiana (looming) and potentially in Texas as well unless Republicans win North Dakota and Montana. Democrats meanwhile getting close having to run the table in these Senate Races.

Senate at this Hour
23 Democratic Holdover Seats
42 Republican Holdover Seats

Based on CNN Calls
40 Democrats
47 Republicans

If Republicans can win MO, ND and MT they have control. MS-Special seems to go into a Runoff where Republicans are favoured.

Encouraging signs in the Wisconsin Governor Race where Walker was proclaimed to be dead a few weeks ago.

[2016]

So, MO-SEN and TEXAS-SEN have flipped, MO to the Democrats, Texas to the Republicans.

Honestly, I expected that. Looks like St. Louis & Kansas City bailed McCaskill out as they came in last. Once a Democrat takes the lead in a MO Statewide Race with now 99% in, it's probably over for Hawley.

In Texas the Trend followed through. As the Vote goes up Cruz took the lead. He has now a nearly 40K Vote lead and should be relativly safe here.

I disagree that the Senate is up in the air from these Panelists. Democrats will still have to run the Table.

Republicans started with 42 Seats. Add the 5 Seats that have been called for them it brings them up to 47. Because Pence is VP they only need 50 meaning if Cruz hangs on and they win the guaranteed Seat in Utah (Mitt Romney) it would bring them up to 49. Then they would only need to win 1 out of North Dakota, Montana or Nevada. Mississippi-Special is almost guaranteed to go to a Runoff where Incumbent Cincy Hyde-Smith is favoured.

Bottom Line: Democrats NEED Texas to make this Map work.

[2016]

So, MO-SEN and TEXAS-SEN have flipped, MO to the Democrats, Texas to the Republicans.

Honestly, I expected that. Looks like St. Louis & Kansas City bailed McCaskill out as they came in last. Once a Democrat takes the lead in a MO Statewide Race with now 99% in, it's probably over for Hawley.

In Texas the Trend followed through. As the Vote goes up Cruz took the lead. He has now a nearly 40K Vote lead and should be relativly safe here.

I disagree that the Senate is up in the air from these Panelists. Democrats will still have to run the Table.

Republicans started with 42 Seats. Add the 5 Seats that have been called for them it brings them up to 47. Because Pence is VP they only need 50 meaning if Cruz hangs on and they win the guaranteed Seat in Utah (Mitt Romney) it would bring them up to 49. Then they would only need to win 1 out of North Dakota, Montana or Nevada. Mississippi-Special is almost guaranteed to go to a Runoff where Incumbent Cincy Hyde-Smith is favoured.

Bottom Line: Democrats NEED Texas to make this Map work.

Keep in mind Democrats could still beat Cindy Hyde-Smith...

In a Runoff that's almost impossible for the Democrats....and they also need to win Montana & North Dakota. Exit Polls have Tester ahead 51-47 over Rosendale and Cramer 52-48 over Heitkamp.