Arizona megathread

[Roll Roons]

If Hispanics shift in Arizona the way they've shifted in Florida and New Mexico, the state will once more be unwinnable for Democrats.

New Mexico literally trended Democratic between 2016 and 2020. Do you even listen to yourself?

[Roll Roons]

In a bright spot for this cursed state:
https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1555742047641825280

Trump got 60% in this town. Looks like even a lot of conservatives are done with Arpaio's crap. Hopefully they continue to reject extremism in November.

[Roll Roons]

Also, I think her name ID seems a bit overrated - she was only an anchor in one of the media markets.

That's like saying that all of Pennsylvania knows Jim Gardner just because he's a legend in the *Philly area*

You realize that Maricopa County is home to over 60% of the state's population...

I think Lake is insane and I don't want her to be the governor, but Hobbs really needs to get her s**t together.

Guess what? Democrats can and do run bad campaigns.

[Roll Roons]

Afaik, this means a net pickup of +3 governorships for the Dems this cycle, correct?

No? The governorships are net even. Lombardo won, and Hobbs won. Every incumbent other than Sisolak won.

MD and MA were Safe D flips.

[Roll Roons]

Knives are deservedly out for Kelli Ward:
https://twitter.com/Karrin4Arizona/status/1592563002901172224

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

Im not sure I understand what this is supposed to mean.

Higher rural turnout does not guarantee better results for the GOP.

It also feels weird to lump all of the non-Maricopa/Pima counties together.

Pinal is best classified as exurban. Even if we also exclude it, there will be a naturally high Democratic floor in the rest of the state because of Native Americans, Hispanics and some white liberal touristy areas.

A lot of "rural" Arizona (and Nevada for that matter) is vast stretches of unpopulated desert. There aren't a lot of small towns full of Trumpy conservatives like there are in, say, Indiana or Ohio.

[Roll Roons]

I guess the ~500 vote difference for AG is too much to expect a different outcome? Why is that one even closer than Gov and SoS?

I think it’s just that the race went under the radar compared to the other two. I’m not sure if Hamadeh was an election denier, but he was certainly much less vocal about it than Lake or Finchem.

[Roll Roons]

I can't quite put my finger on why, but I somehow always disliked Lake far more than Mastriano.

Maybe it's the fact that Trump endorsed her early, while he only endorsed Mastriano the weekend before the primary when he was pulling away. Or maybe it's because she was always much more likely to win so I perceived her as a bigger threat even though he was arguably more extreme.

[Roll Roons]

This has got to be the closest statewide election in recent memory, right?

Even when Al Franken beat Norm Coleman, it was by 312.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/TucsonStar/status/1686553161404682240

When even FINCHEM gives up, it just makes K**i L**e look even more pathetic.

[Roll Roons]

Regarding the counting process, one reform I would make is to make the deadline for mailing in ballots the weekend before the election, and any absentees past that need to be dropped off at a vote center. Since a majority of absentees are ie mailed from Maricopa to Maricopa, most should be counted within 12 hours of polls closing. There will be small amount of provisionals and postmarked absentees arriving after that, but that would only be a trickle, and not cause a sudden large shift. I would aim to get at least 95% of the ballots in by the day after the election (and ideally, 99%), not 80% like before.

Just follow Florida's lead.
-Mail ballots have to be received by poll closing.
-In-person early votes have to be counted by the day before election day.
-Allow early and mail ballots to be processed ahead of time. Even if it's the Republican legislature that's blocking this, there's a very real chance that Democrats get a trifecta in 2024 and can immediately implement this for 2026 and beyond.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/jeremyduda/status/1770119099743641970?s=46
Recall that Hodge ran for Congress against David Schweikert in 2022 and only barely lost. How is this only coming out now?