NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[cinyc]

NY-25, CA-11 and CA-20 are over even if the AP won't call them for whatever reason. NY-01 is the only one truly still up in the air (and only barely so).

Maffei just conceded.  The AP will undoubtedly call NY-25 as a Republican pickup now.  

That leaves CA-11, CA-20 and NY-01.  It's pretty clear all three will remain with the Democrats when the counting is completed.

[Smash255]

Counting is now complete in NY-01.   Bishop is up 235 votes according to Bishop's spokesman 234 according to Altschuler's.

2,051 contested absentee and affidavit ballots still need to be resolved and a hearing will be held next Tuesday for them.    1,261 of those ballots were challenged by Altschuler, 790 challenged by Bishop.

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-counting-over-in-suffolk-bishop-leads-by-235-1.2490040

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AP calls CA-20 for Costa.

[ag]

So, assuming CA-11 and NY-1 stay w/ Dems, we can summarize the results by region as follows (only for races run this time):

Pacific West (CA, WA, OR, HI, AK):

Senate
4 D (no change)
1 I-R (+1, I am using a liebermanian-style moniker for Murkowski)
0 R (-1)

House
D 45 (no change from pre-election, -1 from 2008)
R 26 (no change from pre-election, +1 from 2008)

Governors (for completeness)
D 3 (+2)
R 1 (-2)

The Pacific West was a place onto its own )) Dems didn't loose anything

[ag]

Mountain West (ID, MT, NV, CO, UT, AZ, NM, WY):

Senate:
3 R (no change)
2 D (no change)

House
18 R (+6)
10 D (-6)

Governorships
6 R (+2)
1 D (-2)

[ag]

"Western Midwest", including Plains (ND, SD, NE, KS, MN, IA, MO):

Senate:
5 R (+1)
0 D (-1)

House
21 R (+5)
9 D (-5)

Governorships
4 R (no change, assuming Dayton wins)
1 R (no change, assuming Dayton wins)

[ag]

"Eastern Midwest" (MI, WI, IL, IN, OH)

Senate
5 R (+3)
0 D (-3)

House
44 R (+16)
25 D (-16)
 
Governorships
3 R (+3)
1 D (-3)

[J. J.]

Please continue.

[ag]

"Broad Northeast" (New England, NY, NJ, PA, WV, MD, DE)

Senate
7 D (-1)
2 R (+1)

House
63 D (-15)
32 R (+15)

Governorships:
6 D (no change)
2 R (-1)
1 I (+1)

Including New England (MA, CT, RI, ME, NH, VT)

Senate
2 D (no change)
1 R (no change)

House
20 D (-2)
2 R (+2)

Governorships
4 D (+1)
1 R (-2)
1 I (+1)

Big losses for Dems in broader region, but, still, overwelming dominance in most places. Interestingly, Northeastern Dem losses are comparable to the Midwestern losses in the House. But the overall dominance ensures that nothing similar happened at the state-wide elections.

[ag]

"Outer South" (which I shall, somewhat voluntaristically define as TX, OK, AR, KY, TN, VA, NC, VA and FL)

Senate
5 R (+1)
0 D (-1)

House
74 R (+16)
31 D (-16)

Governorships
4 R (+3 compared w/ pre-election, +2 compared w/ last election)
1 D (-2)
0 I (-1 compared w/ pre-election, no change compared w/ last election)

[ag]

Inner South (SC, GA, MS, AL, LA)

Senate
4 R (no change)

House
28 R (+5)
9 D (-5)

Governorships
3 R (no change)

Not much is left that Republicans can additionally squeeze here even in a good year. In fact, other than in Georgia Dems are everywhere down to the required "black" district.

[ag]

I'd need to check the numbers, but overall the picture is clear. There has been no change in the Pacific West. Mountain West and the Midwest are swing areas. Northeast still gives Republicans a chance in a good year (though not much chance in New England). Broad South is finishing its transformation, and nothing's left to transform in the Core South.

[J. J.]

"Eastern Midwest" (MI, WI, IL, IN, OH)

Senate
5 R (+3)
0 D (-3)

House
44 R (+16)
25 D (-16)
 
Governorships
3 R (+3)
1 D (-3)

Adding IA, MN and MO, what would be the numbers (I call that the "Heartland").

[ag]

Adding IA, MN and MO, what would be the numbers (I call that the "Heartland").

Senate
2 R (no change in seats contested this time)

House
12 R (+2)
9 D (-2)

Governorships
1 D (assuming Dayton holds in MN, a Dem pick-up)
1 R (a Rep pick-up in IA)

Not much change, in fact: Dems lost a seat in MN and another in MO, and an exchange of governorships, but nothing more serious.

[ag]

Dems now hold majorities in House delegations from WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, IA, NC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI, VT, ME.  DE was previously R, HI was tied

MN is a tie (was D)

The rest are majority R. NV, AZ, CO, ND, SD, WI, IL, OH, MI, IN, PA, VA, WV, AR used to be majority D, ID and TN used to be tied.

Single-party house delegations:

All-Dem - 7 states: MA (10), CT (5), ME (2), RI (2), HI (2), VT (1), DE (1).
All-GOP - 8 states: KS (4), NE (3), NH (2), ID (2), MT (1), AK (1), ND (1), WY (1). 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They finally called CA-20 for Costa (D) and CA AG race for Harris (D). For whatever reason they're not calling CA-11 for McNerney (D) yet. NY-01 and CA-11 are the 2 unresolved races. If they stay Democratic, the Republicans gained 66 seats and lost 3 for a net gain of 63.

[cinyc]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

[rbt48]

Questions about the 2010 elections (answers are welcome):

1.  What House candidate (and name the district and number of votes) corralled the largest number of votes?
2.  What (at this point) is the narrowest margin of victory in a House race?
3.  What is the latest tally for H of R popular votes, nationwide, by party?
4.  What was the most surprising Republican victory in the H of R (opinion)?
5.  What was the most surprising Democratic victory in the H of R (opinion)?
6.  What was the most surprising Republican victory in the Senate (opinion)?
7.  What was the most surprising Democratic victory in the Senate (opinion)?

[Keystone Phil]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

[rbt48]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

It is indeed refreshing to see that a Republican's margin of victory can actually grow with the counting of absentee and provisional ballots.

Personally, I'm glad to see that Adm Sestak will get to live on his military pension and not move onto the US Senate.  From what I gathered of how ruthlessly he worked his staffers, perhaps they are not all that sad as well.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know that these results include the absentee and provisional ballots though. There are still precincts that have yet to report. They might be from those areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey's margin of victory is now greater than that of Specter's in 1980 (GOP wave year) and 1992 and Santorum's in 1994 (GOP wave year).

[Verily]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

Once he gets down to the ethnic part of it, his analysis stinks. Hispanics voting only "narrowly" Democratic in Texas? Try looking at the gubernatorial results again. Hispanic turnout just sucks in off years, so they got outvoted in seats that are drawn to only just barely favor their preferred candidates. Finns "voted Republican"? Look at the county breakdown of MN-08. Hint: The Finnish areas voted for Oberstar overwhelmingly, as usual. But, again, they were outvoted.

His analysis is like looking at Sanford Bishop's seat and wondering why blacks nearly voted for a Republican.

[J. J.]

Adding IA, MN and MO, what would be the numbers (I call that the "Heartland").

Senate
2 R (no change in seats contested this time)

House
12 R (+2)
9 D (-2)

Governorships
1 D (assuming Dayton holds in MN, a Dem pick-up)
1 R (a Rep pick-up in IA)

Not much change, in fact: Dems lost a seat in MN and another in MO, and an exchange of governorships, but nothing more serious.

+18 R seats in that region might be very significant.  Thanks for the calculation.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

What happened with Westmoreland?

Westmoreland County

Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM)   
 8,338 9.9%
TOOMEY, PAT (REP)   
 76,002 90.1%