NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Skill and Chance]

In CA-11, Harmer had a very rough day yesterday, as votes came in from Alameda, replicating its earlier swing to McNerney plus a bit. Harmer will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in San Joaquin, the one place where he won, by having the late absentees and provisionals swing to him by perhaps 6%, plus have a turnout that matches the balance of the district with its late reporting, to get back to even.. That is highly unlikely. Harmer is really on the ropes now.

   Alameda               11/9/2010   
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%   21024   4938   59.96%
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%   15247   3297   40.04%
14.65%  27367  28036   669   18.98%   36271   8235   19.93%   5.28%   Dem Gain

So after three consecutive wave elections, only one of California's seats changed hands when McNerney defeated Pombo in 2006.
Whoever gerrymandered the state did a spectacular job.

Personally, I think IL-8 is over barring a miracle/mistake in recount.  Cook County absentee counting is basically over (only 500 absentee ballots have not been returned and there are only about 200 provisionals) whereas Lake and McHenry still have ballots left (Lake has 600 definite absentees and a few hundred provisionals whereas McHenry certainly has some absentees) and Bean is still down 347.

Illinois will probably be the only state where Democrats are going to have a LOT of fun with redistricting.

There are only a couple of places where the status quo has actually changed.  IL and NC are the big ones, along with FL thanks to the amendments.  The GOP might be able to get one more seat out of IN now, and the Dems might be able to get one more out of VA now that they have split control, but the other big states are basically still in the 2001 status quo.  In MN it's likely going to be a D governor and an R legislature instead of a D legislature and R governor, but I don't think that really matters.  MA now has a D governor, but the legislature is and was veto proof anyway.

There is also the impact of the Obama DOJ basically having veto power over redistricting in the former Confederacy, but the effects are still unclear.

[Badger]

The "status quo" hasn't changed in states like OH and PA if one believes the 06 and 08 results were the abberation, and the bad economy didn't aid GOP candidates far out of proportion to their actual political strength. I question that.

Accordingly Republican redistricting monopolies in these and other states will do quite a bit to fundamentally change the "status quo".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And Costa takes a 1,200 vote lead in CA-20, so this one is over.

[Torie]

Meanwhile, things are getting tense in IL-8. Assuming foul play is involved, it does strike me as odd that the Cook County Dem operatives really want to hold this seat that bad, particularly if it is going to be gerrymandered away. The article fails to give the Cook County side of the story, either because it is biased, or because the Cook County operatives are stonewalling.

[cinyc]

And Costa takes a 1,200 vote lead in CA-20, so this one is over.

Why?  Are there no votes left to count from Kings County?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And Costa takes a 1,200 vote lead in CA-20, so this one is over.

Why?  Are there no votes left to count from Kings County?

Correct. There are still some ballots left in Fresno and Kern, in fact.

[Torie]

Well boys and girls (I forgot we seem to be a female free zone), CA-11 will stay in Dem hands. This one is over.

San Joaquin                        
Harmer   52.48%    45,958   58652   12,694   51.65%         
McNerney47.52%   41,612   53493   11,881   48.35%   0.83%   Dem Improvement   
                               87,570                24,575   

In sum, the GOP bombed out in CA. They took nothing from the Dems, nothing, except perhaps picking up the AG slot (Cooley, but I have not been tracking that one closely), while losing one assembly seat.    Sure, some of the Dem margins eroded, some substantially, but the color is still all blue, or red, or whatever color is the Dem color.

Addendum:

Given the Dem lean of these late absentees, and how Cooley's margin is eroding, he looks like he is headed to defeat as well, unless Orange County and other such places are discernably slower in counting their late absentees than the balance of the state, but bearing in mind that the provisionals, which are the last to count typically, have typically an even more Dem lean. So Cooley is on life support probably.

Kamala D. Harris (Dem)   3,928,805 45.8%
Steve Cooley (Rep)         3,940,205 45.9%

      

[Ronnie]

Will Mary Bono Mack have trouble being reelected in 2012 if Steve Pougnet runs again?  A 10% win is not very solid, especially in such a good year for Pubbies.

[Joe Republic]

Harry Reid ended up winning Searchlight by just 3 votes. 

[Mr.Phips]

Will Mary Bono Mack have trouble being reelected in 2012 if Steve Pougnet runs again?  A 10% win is not very solid, especially in such a good year for Pubbies.

I would certainly say so.  Especially as her district will probably be reconfigured to be more Democratic in redistricting. 

[minionofmidas]

Well boys and girls (I forgot we seem to be a female free zone), CA-11 will stay in Dem hands. This one is over.

San Joaquin                        
Harmer   52.48%    45,958   58652   12,694   51.65%         
McNerney47.52%   41,612   53493   11,881   48.35%   0.83%   Dem Improvement   
                               87,570                24,575   

In sum, the GOP bombed out in CA. They took nothing from the Dems, nothing, except perhaps picking up the AG slot (Cooley, but I have not been tracking that one closely), while losing one assembly seat.    Sure, some of the Dem margins eroded, some substantially, but the color is still all blue, or red, or whatever color is the Dem color.

Yellow.

[Brittain33]

Harry Reid ended up winning Searchlight by just 3 votes. 

Did you notice that Angle's pre-victory tour included a "Twilight in Searchlight" media event to mark the end of Harry Reid's career?

[Holmes]

Oh Torie, I do hope Harris does pull it out. She seems like a young charismatic talent, and seems like the obvious successor to Feinstein or Boxer when they retire. Karl Rove figured as much.

But honestly, I think Cooley was the "best" statewide candidate that the Republicans had, and Harris was probably the "worst" statewide candidate the Democrats had.

[rbt48]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

[Sam Spade]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

[Torie]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

Here is the place for your missing Alabama numbers Sam. Yes, it was hard to find. The trick is to go to wikipedia for the 2010 elections for each state, and explore their links. That is how I found this hidden page at the Alabama SOS site.

[Sbane]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

[J. J.]

Anything on those House seats still out?

[Torie]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

How many ballots are they left to count, my friend? Do you want to take a guess? It's over a million, yes a million!  You just gotta love our state; it is just such a blast. If you are a masochist, I suppose you could slap the ballots left to count numbers from here on to a spreadsheet, and do candidate splits based on the split in each county so far, and do a projection. Glancing at the sheet, maybe Cooley will pull it out, if he is running close in LA County. Is he?  I have not checked.

Addendum: The sheet does not reflect ballots that were counted and totals released on the afternoon of Nov 10 I see (I know that, because it says San Joaquin's last numbers were from Nov 8, and I know they released a count of a bunch of votes late yesterday afternoon (the ballots which put a stake into the heart of Harmer).

[Sam Spade]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

Here is the place for your missing Alabama numbers Sam. Yes, it was hard to find. The trick is to go to wikipedia for the 2010 elections for each state, and explore their links. That is how I found this hidden page at the Alabama SOS site.

Thanks.  Otherwise, I would have just waited for the official canvass, where it will appear.

[Torie]

Is there any other state that you are missing Sam?  I am here for you pal. 

[Sam Spade]

Is there any other state that you are missing Sam?  I am here for you pal. 

I don't have my Excel sheet in front of me - basically it's only completely uncontested CDs (no third-party, nothing) and two were in Alabama.  I think one is in Florida, but I forget the other two.

[Meeker]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

How many ballots are they left to count, my friend? Do you want to take a guess? It's over a million, yes a million!  You just gotta love our state; it is just such a blast. If you are a masochist, I suppose you could slap the ballots left to count numbers from here on to a spreadsheet, and do candidate splits based on the split in each county so far, and do a projection. Glancing at the sheet, maybe Cooley will pull it out, if he is running close in LA County. Is he?  I have not checked.

Addendum: The sheet does not reflect ballots that were counted and totals released on the afternoon of Nov 10 I see (I know that, because it says San Joaquin's last numbers were from Nov 8, and I know they released a count of a bunch of votes late yesterday afternoon (the ballots which put a stake into the heart of Harmer).

Here is a few days old version of such a spreadsheet: http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7991/caag-improvement-for-kamala

[Sbane]

If Cooley ends up losing by a tiny margin, and since Mcnerney has more or less held on in his district, this election cycle will have been awesome.

But what chance is there really of Cooley losing? He is still ahead by 20,000 votes, and that margin is going to be hard to whittle down. She might be able to get it down below 10,000 but obviously that is not enough. The one statewide race where I actually cared whether the Democrat won, the Republican wins.

How many ballots are they left to count, my friend? Do you want to take a guess? It's over a million, yes a million!  You just gotta love our state; it is just such a blast. If you are a masochist, I suppose you could slap the ballots left to count numbers from here on to a spreadsheet, and do candidate splits based on the split in each county so far, and do a projection. Glancing at the sheet, maybe Cooley will pull it out, if he is running close in LA County. Is he?  I have not checked.

Addendum: The sheet does not reflect ballots that were counted and totals released on the afternoon of Nov 10 I see (I know that, because it says San Joaquin's last numbers were from Nov 8, and I know they released a count of a bunch of votes late yesterday afternoon (the ballots which put a stake into the heart of Harmer).

To do an easier one first, Harris would need to win the rest of the ballots (provisionals so maybe that helps her) by a 10 point margin to win bellwether San Benito County. It seems like Los Angeles county has a lot left as well as Contra Costa. Unfortunately for Harris, she is not running as well as she needs to in those counties to win, though she sill has a 13 point lead in both counties. And the counties she did better in like Alameda and Santa Clara have mostly reported. San Diego and Sacramento also have a lot of ballots left and Harris is losing in both. Actually she might be the only Democrat to lose Sacramento county this cycle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Harry Reid ended up winning Searchlight by just 3 votes. 

Only 3 votes ? That's certainly one of the poorest "home turf effects" ever.