2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[2016]

https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1559716483600719872

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Teton County is like 50 rich Libertarians who own ranches there. She'll win it.

But RIP

[politicallefty]

The early returns seem to look like a standard D vs. R race with Cheney standing in for the former.

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

Top-two primaries aren't really the same. Valadao could very well end up going down in November too.

[2016]

The early returns seem to look like a standard D vs. R race with Cheney standing in for the former.

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

Top-two primaries aren't really the same. Valadao could very well end up going down in November too.

Valadao will go down!

[kwabbit]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

[Tekken_Guy]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

If anyone's going to bring down Trump, it's going to be an heir to his movement like Ron DeSantis, not a anti-Trumper like Cheney.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Cheney literally came out and said she would not vote for DeSantis if he was the nominee too . Like yah she at this point had to go

[2016]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

I trend to agree with this Analysis!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Cheney literally came out and said she would not vote for DeSantis if he was the nominee too . Like yah she at this point had to go

And this is why your party is a danger to America. Those who went along with Trump's election nullification scheme are just as unfit for office as he is.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling WY-GOV D for Livingston!
Calling WY-Treasurer R for Meier!

Out of an abundance of caution, I'm not going to call WY-AL R until we see stuff out of Cheyenne/Albany [University of Wyoming]/Teton

Uncalled:
WY-AL D
WY-AL R
WY-SOS R
WY-Superintendent R
AK-SEN
AK-GOV
AK-AL
KS-Treasurer R

[OSR stands with Israel]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

If anyone's going to bring down Trump, it's going to be an heir to his movement like Ron DeSantis, not a anti-Trumper like Cheney.

This , as people completely misunderstand who really runs the gop as it’s neither the establishment or Trump but it’s the GOP base . Trump has just been sorta of a spokesperson for whatever the base is thinking and that is why he has the influence he does and if you want to beat him you have to be able to appeal to the base to and DeSantis does that .


The fact is the GOP base no longer wants a pro institutionalist party and making that your identity in a primary is just gonna lose . You only have two choices and they are either reduce their powers or see them get trashed and the problem is the Never Trumpers don’t want to reduce their powers so they don’t fit either category.

[2016]

I agree with Tekken_Guy & OSR!

Question to you both: Do you really believe someone like Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, etc. would have a chance to beat Biden or Harris in a GE in 2024. I don't think so.

The WWC, that Trump activated during the 2016 Race, particularly in the Rust Belt States, would stay home.

Ron DeSantis is the GOP's only hope here otherwise four more D Years.

[politicallefty]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cheney 24 for Prez she is definitely running for Prez

[2016]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Cheney literally came out and said she would not vote for DeSantis if he was the nominee too . Like yah she at this point had to go

And this is why your party is a danger to America. Those who went along with Trump's election nullification scheme are just as unfit for office as he is.

Wow, calling Ron DeSantis an Election Nullifier or Denier seems a huge, huge stretch to me.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/ap_politics/status/1559727369694355456?s=21&t=BOiA29d_fP...

[Gracile]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

The new NY-22 also features a lot of Obama-Trump/Trumpish Republican voters in the Utica area (it likely has significantly more of such primary voters than MI-03), which Katko also never represented in Congress/doesn't have an incumbency advantage. I don't think the odds would be on his side.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Cheney literally came out and said she would not vote for DeSantis if he was the nominee too . Like yah she at this point had to go

And this is why your party is a danger to America. Those who went along with Trump's election nullification scheme are just as unfit for office as he is.

Wow, calling Ron DeSantis an Election Nullifier or Denier seems a huge, huge stretch to me.

Then why did he call on state legislatures to appoint Trump electors in opposition to the voters in those states: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-gop-reaction-20201106-pjqk73ln3jcojggkp2rhezz7ay-story.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

I think she should win Teton. Not sure what the GOP primary electorate look like there, but it should be much different than the rest of the state even if it's not entirely rich ski types.

That would be my assumption, but then again she is currently barely at 30% in the statewide vote...

Cheney at 81% in Teton!

[Senator Incitatus]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are the odds that the U.S. House primary and the U.S. House special election in Alaska deliver different results?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I think the real question is "Does Cheney win a single county?"

I think she should win Teton. Not sure what the GOP primary electorate look like there, but it should be much different than the rest of the state even if it's not entirely rich ski types.

That would be my assumption, but then again she is currently barely at 30% in the statewide vote...

Cheney at 81% in Teton!

Glad to see that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are the odds that the U.S. House primary and the U.S. House special election in Alaska deliver different results?

100%, because there are 22 candidates running in the primary for November and only 3 in the Special.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On any other night before January 6th. 2021, I would've celebrated Liz Cheney's defeat. That is not true tonight. This is not a good day for this country or the values of our Constitution. The experiment is failing or may have failed already and we just don't know it yet.

Insane take. Getting Liz Cheney out of Congress has dramatically reduced the probability of another such event. Getting her out of the country would be agreeable as well.

You’ll have to explain that one.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gotta say it's hard to take the "Trump is losing his hold on the GOP" takes seriously when ALL of the pro-impeachment Rs are losing primaries

Dan Newhouse and David Valadao say hello.

The top-two primary system creates incentives that do not exist in normal primary systems.

I think Katko (if he ran) would have been the only one capable of surviving a non top-two primary system. Lots of registered ancestral Rs in Onandaga County. Meijer got close and Grand Rapids is similar enough to Syracuse.  

The new NY-22 also features a lot of Obama-Trump/Trumpish Republican voters in the Utica area (it likely has significantly more of such primary voters than MI-03), which Katko also never represented in Congress/doesn't have an incumbency advantage. I don't think the odds would be on his side.

Would Trump have gotten Tenney to run there or would she still carpetbag to safer territory like she did in real life?