🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[beesley]

Did 37: Luchow-Dannenberg-Luneburg just flip in Niedersachen to SPD?

Yes. Greens ran them close.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

144: Unna I is an SPD hold, with an increased plurality from 2017.
How good is this for the Social Democrats?

[Yeahsayyeah]

SPD gains from CDU
Nienburg II - Schaumburg
Pirmasens
Lüchow-Danneberg - Lüneburg


CSU hold München-West/Mitte by 156 votes over Greens

[Yeahsayyeah]

CSU won München-Ost by a margin of 11 per cent over the greens. The Bundestag is going to explode, because of the compensation seats.

How would the Bundestag going down to 250 direct seats impact future elections?

Less propability of overhang seats and though less compensation seats. The seat number of the Bundestag would probably go down. On the other hand, there would be more nivellation of local patterns, because of bigger districts.

Do you mean "levelling out" (a.k.a become more stable)?

In a way of: you get more median, poltically equal districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

[Oryxslayer]

144: Unna I is an SPD hold, with an increased plurality from 2017.
How good is this for the Social Democrats?

I dunno, the change there was mainly Union-> Green with SPD standing strong, on both ballots.

[Yeahsayyeah]

SPD gain Oberspreewald - Lausitz II from CDU. AfD stable and the CDU now third.

According to the state site AfD gained Mittelsachsen from CDU.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The Linke result is interesting, in that you have to wonder how much of it is Eastern pensioners voting for Scholz because he comes off as more post-communist than the actual post-communists, and how much of it is those pensioners, er, not voting for anyone. They have to be hoping that it's primarily the former, otherwise they have to start making up ground in the west real fast.

I'd also add that this is the first election they've run in where both the SPD and the Greens had strong wind in their sails. Even if, say, Scholz is a popular Chancellor and gives the SPD a boost going into the next election, that probably won't happen again.

[Oryxslayer]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[NOVA Green]

Seems like SPD and the Greens have been making decent % gains in NRW based upon the complete results thus far, with CDU dropping significantly.

Is that something anyone else is has been noticing?

[MT Treasurer]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct? Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

[Alcibiades]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct? Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

Yes, winning 3 or more constituencies entitles a party to their share of list seats regardless of their overall Zweitstimmen percentage.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct?

Correct. ✔

(The FPTP seats are reckoned up with the proportional seats, though.)

Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

No.

[NOVA Green]

So looks like there are a few more flips:

65- Elbe Elster- Oberspreewald- Lausitz II   (Brandenburg)     CDU > SPD
203- Trier (Rhineland Pfalz)     CDU > SPD
63: Frankfort (Oder) - Oder Spree (Brandenburg) CDU > SPD

[crals]

According to that projection R2G wouldn't have a majority despite getting more votes than the Union+FDP+AfD... that's unfortunate

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct? Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

What Alcibiades said.
Also it's worth noting that in 2002 you have a case of a party getting into the Bundestag without reaching 5%. The PDS fell below 5% but won 2 direct seats. Had it won one more it would have gotten its full allotment, but because it didn't, it only had 2 seats.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, winning 3 or more constituencies entitles a party to their share of list seats regardless of their overall Zweitstimmen percentage.

Thanks. Now that I rethink it, it makes complete sense (they are already guaranteed the FPTP seats, after all), but these electoral systems can be incredibly confusing for people so used to FPTP.

[Logical]

Aurich-Emden with 43,3% Zweitstimme for the SPD. I believe it was the SPD's strongest constituency in 2017 too.

Freiburg Green GAIN from CDU

[NOVA Green]

More flips:

191: Jena-Sommerda-Weimarer Land I (Thuringen) CDU > SPD
281: Freiburg (Baden Wurttemmberg)     CDU> Green
28: Delmenhorst- Wesermarsch-Olenburg Land (Niedersachen) CDU > SPD
43: Hannover Land I (Niedersachen) CDU>SPD

[soundchaser]

Aurich-Emden with 43,3% Zweitstimme for the SPD. I believe it was the SPD's strongest constituency in 2017 too.

Freiburg Green GAIN from CDU

Freiburg was flipped by a 26-year-old candidate; CDU is in third there.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Oryxslayer]

Greens get their first direct mandate out of Freiburg, but more will come in Hamburg, Munich, and Berlin. Notably, the Union lose 3% and the SPD 5% here on the second ballot when compared to the first one, going to Greens and FDP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many of the CDU losses so far are not open seats?