🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is vote counting likely to be finished?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

I understand why the FDP might prefer a Jamaica coalition, but why would the Greens? Do they think they’d have more negotiating leverage than with the SPD?

They would prefer a traffic-light. But they would probably have some leverage to distinguis themselves in a Schwampel and this could compensate, at least a bit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lindner says the Greens and FDP should first hold discussions together about the third partner. Could be big news.

I understand why the FDP might prefer a Jamaica coalition, but why would the Greens? Do they think they’d have more negotiating leverage than with the SPD?

FDP does seem to have a history of coming in with big demands and bold proclamations and coming out empty-handed. Fingers crossed that continues.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

Al did

[Yeahsayyeah]

When is vote counting likely to be finished?

You can see the districts, that are fully counted, her:
https://bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/ergebniseingaenge.html

Most should be counted by midnight CEST, but some could hold out until early in the morning, especially in Berlin, because reasons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is vote counting likely to be finished?

You can see the districts, that are fully counted, her:
https://bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/ergebniseingaenge.html

Most should be counted by midnight CEST, but some could hold out until early in the morning, especially in Berlin, because reasons.

Danke!
This link will come in handy.
Any reason why Bavaria is coming in first?

[Oryxslayer]

Cuxhaven flips on both first and second votes from Union to SPD.

[Yeahsayyeah]

SPD has gained Cuxhaven-Stade II from CDU.

[Hnv1]

Where did the SPD do better? Bremen or Hamburg?

[brucejoel99]

So I know nothing about this:

What party is Merkel?

Her current party is the Christian Democratic Union, the major catch-all party of the center-right in 15 of the 16 German states' politics that combines on the federal level with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, to form a center-right alliance known simply as the Union. As an East German, she was previously involved in the East German pro-democracy party, Democratic Awakening, after the fall of the Berlin Wall catalyzed her political career; following the first & only free & fair election in East Germany, that party merged with the East German Christian Democratic Union, which in turn merged with its western counterpart - the CDU that she now leads today - after the German reunification. She chose to step down from the chancellery at this election, & the Minister-President of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (equivalent to an American governor), Armin Laschet, is her successor as CDU leader & chancellor-candidate; as North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany's most populous state, this is basically like if Jerry Brown had been the 2016 Democratic nominee after Obama was term-limited.

Whose going to win?

At this juncture, it seems as if the SPD is still likely to emerge with both the most votes & seats, albeit in a more narrow fashion than most recent polling suggested. This gives them the proverbial "mandate to govern" in a normative-ish, public-relations sense, in that most Germans would probably be shocked if the largest party were to end up not leading the government, with political & cultural norms generally dictating that such a largest party should be the ones to have the first shot at conducting coalition negotiations, but there's no formal process like in Westminster parliamentary systems or in Spain or in Israel: in Germany, coalition negotiations are basically a post-election free-for-all among those non-AfD parties that constitute a majority in the Bundestag - minority governments aren't really a thing in Germany; they're allowed, but they're avoided at all costs - to reach an agreement, on the basis of which the President can then propose a chancellor-candidate to a vote in the Bundestag, which can take a while; for example, the 2017 vote was held in Mar. 2018.

What kind of system do they have? (Similar to….?)

MMP, similar to NZ. Voters can cast 2 votes: one to decide the Bundestag member for their single-seat constituency via FPTP, & another for a political party list for proportional representation. Seats in the Bundestag are filled first by the successful candidates in the 299 constituencies, & then by 299 party-list candidates based on the percentage of votes that each party received, with party list seats further allocated in a manner that covers any proportionality gap between the percentage of the vote that a party receives & the percentage of single-seat constituencies that they happened to win.

What’s the spectrum alignment of the leading parties? (LEFT to RIGHT)

There's Die Linke (literally "The Left") on the left/far-left, the SPD & Greens as pretty interchangeable parties on the center-left, the pro-business FDP in the center/center-right, the Union on the center-right, & AfD on the right/far-right.

[Yeahsayyeah]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

[Sven der Igel]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

What’s next ?

Söder and the CSU banning abortion in Bayern ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

[Sven der Igel]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

The Democrats lost votes there last year to Trump.

It’s also a joke.

[Yeahsayyeah]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

What’s next ?

Söder and the CSU banning abortion in Bayern ?

It has been already one of the weakest regions of the SPD, since...ever?

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

The Democrats lost votes there last year to Trump.

for completely unrelated reasons...

[Sven der Igel]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

It’s the Rio Grande Valley all over again.

The Democrats lost votes there last year to Trump.

for completely unrelated reasons...

Yes. I made a joke.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

They are actually gaining votes on the second list, but very few, even in the Munich seat that just reported. Bavaria's mainly a story of FW surging, Greens gaining, and other parties remaining stagnant or declining.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Yeahsayyeah]

CSU won München-Ost by a margin of 11 per cent over the greens. The Bundestag is going to explode, because of the compensation seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only real Rio Grande comparison that may be made is the SPD's seeming decline in Munich?

[Sven der Igel]

The only real Rio Grande comparison that may be made is the SPD's seeming decline in Munich?

Bavarians and Upper Austrians don’t like the SPDÖs for some kind of reason.

Scholz gains a lot more elsewhere, like in the East.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CSU won München-Ost by a margin of 11 per cent over the greens. The Bundestag is going to explode, because of the compensation seats.

How would the Bundestag going down to 250 direct seats impact future elections?

[Yeahsayyeah]

The only real Rio Grande comparison that may be made is the SPD's seeming decline in Munich?

They gained proportional votes in Munich, so I don't know...

In other news, the CDU held Celle-Uelzen by 0.6 per cent.

[Astatine]

The only real Rio Grande comparison that may be made is the SPD's seeming decline in Munich?

Bavarians and Upper Austrians don’t like the SPDÖs for some kind of reason.

Scholz gains a lot more elsewhere, like in the East.

hey tender ik it's you