Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

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And we're off.

Prediction: Likud landslide, ZU and Meretz shattered.

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This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority. 

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It will be interesting to see how Benny Gantz will position himself in these elections: Will he run? Run in his own party? or join Yesh Atid, for example?

The latest poll, the Midgam one, shows Gantz with growing support and the main challenger of Netanyahu:

28 Likud
16 Gantz Party
13 Yesh Atid
12 The Joint (Arab) List
10 Zionist Union
  9 Bayit Yehudi
  7 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
  6 Yisrael Beitenu
  5 Kulanu
  5 Shas
  5 Orly Levy
  4 Meretz

60 Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

I'll wait with predictions. I also think the joint list will split into two different lists by then.

I'd also wait with the Ganz party, and wouldn't put out of question a surprising Kulano-Likud union.

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As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

The insurgent demographic votes for Bibi. what ever you think about western electoral systems does not apply in Israel. end off.

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This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

[Hnv1]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

How can he be barred? That's a shame too, he was a unique prespective.
And that's quite sad considering they were polling at 5-6 thanks to the Labour turmoil.

Some bureaucratic nonsense because he was the party general secretary

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I would say with hindsight that the killing of Yitzhak Rabin marks the demise of progressive zionism, as well as the early  end of the hopes raised by the Oslo agreements. In my opinion resurrection is impossible. I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

Rabin, progressives zionism, lol. The way historic narratives develop are hilarious

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What's Gantz' stance (if any) on cooperation with Likud? And would YA ready to give it another try?

Ganz has yet to make a single comment about anything

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ZU polled at 7 today, that must be the all time low. Zandberg is trying desperately to get some labour MKs to switch sides, her position in Meretz isn't good (she's not up for a challenge now but she will be devoured following the coming defeat).

Galant is leaving Kulano for Likud, Alalof is retiring, and Azaria kicked out.

Meretz Primaries are probably going to take place on 12.2

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Frankly, I'd be rather worried if the average Israeli even knew who Kurz was

Kurz got mentioned a lot in Israeli newspapers and TV over the past year, because he visited Israel several times.

You overestimate how much the average Israeli cares

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Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked are going to leave the Jewish Home a create a new religious-secular united party.

I'm also hearing that crazy homoophobe Smotrich might take over the actual Jewish Home-National Union, but not sure at all.

So would the new party be more moderate regarding lgbt? Less outright racist towards muslims?

In rhetoric only.

The new party will be called The New Right. It’s interesting to that it will be ran as Duumvirate with Shaked, meaning Bennet acknowledges his failing popularity.
I’m intrigued to see the sort of people that will join it on the secular side

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The Makor poll is amazing (giving 14 to Bennet and Shaked and again 5 to Bayit Yehudi and 25 to likud) but it's true that Bennett and Shaked are the most popular ministers (53 % for shaked, 44 % for bennett) so it's not impossible.

It’s a junk pollster, and it was conducted online, Likud has a large number of old voters that you can’t reach like that.

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Dov Khanin retires from being an MK, Hadadh will have to pick a new Jew, they might try bringing in one of the really young ones like Alon Lee-Green

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Eventful day. ZU no more, Gabbay announces it’s over

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Gabbay dumped Livni live and right in front of her, it was a very entertaining moment.

It was like watching David Levy reborn. And as he’s such a small man that would also be his downfall. Only plus side maybe Labour can finally die.

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Gabbay dumped Livni live and right in front of her, it was a very entertaining moment.

It was like watching David Levy reborn. And as he’s such a small man that would also be his downfall. Only plus side maybe Labour can finally die.

Explain to me this reference. I know who David Levy is. What did he do that was similar?

Ahhhh...well the whole vengeful act to regain his honour and pride. It was the Moroccan stereotype on live TV

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Israel seems to have moved a lot to the right since independence, why?

My impression is that Ashkenazi Jews lean Left and Sephardi Jews lean Right and that over time relative size of Sephardi Jews population has been going up.   Also the Russian Jews that moved into Israel in the early 1990s also lean Right.

That's a bit of an oversimplication imo. The matter in Israel isn't really demographic like in the U.S.- here it's more a matter of the public, as a whole, just moving right. It might be attributed to the continuous failures of the peace process and the terrorism that followed radicalizing much of the public and making it cynical to peace processes, but I don't think that Mizrahi Jews growing in amount makes much of an impact, since the younger generations are much less secterian anyway.

I would say that’s right, the younger generation are a less spoken about it but it’s clearly still an issue.

Also younger culture is overwhelmingly more Sephardi even the Ashkrnaz listen to their terrible pop and repeat the ridiculous stereotypes about warmth and community.

The fact is that the right shift doesn’t have a single cause, it’s demographics it’s the peace process it’s inherent Jewish sentiment it’s the militaristic culture that was always here it’s the pathetic state of the left. And more

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Gonna skip over that long wall of goysplaining

IMO, what we're seeing are the internal contradictions of Labour Zionism come to bite them in the back (being a labour party that does not, by-and-large, rep working class interests, the downfall of the kibbutzes, the wink-wink two-step w/ the settlers, maintaining a colony w/i a "democratic" state).

For the "left" in Israel and Palestine to have any hope at achieving collective liberation, it's going to have to move beyond Zionism.

Dov Khenin, I think, has it right:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He’s talking about their delusional grassroots movement “Standing Together”, for Hadash members who didn’t like the way the party runs. But thanks for the redsplaining

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Gonna skip over that long wall of goysplaining

IMO, what we're seeing are the internal contradictions of Labour Zionism come to bite them in the back (being a labour party that does not, by-and-large, rep working class interests, the downfall of the kibbutzes, the wink-wink two-step w/ the settlers, maintaining a colony w/i a "democratic" state).

For the "left" in Israel and Palestine to have any hope at achieving collective liberation, it's going to have to move beyond Zionism.

Dov Khenin, I think, has it right:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He’s talking about their delusional grassroots movement “Standing Together”, for Hadash members who didn’t like the way the party runs. But thanks for the redsplaining

I didn't know Standing Together was officially connected to Hadash. Tbh, I'm not the biggest fan of their organizing model.
Sorry about the "redsplaining," i can't help it sometimes, I'm descended from Judeo-Bolsheviks

Not officially as the communist party doesn’t not agree to activities which are not related to the party. But it was formed by Hadash activists who didn’t like Baracke or the joint list. I know some of their chiefs, they would happily return to party politics if they could (and I assume that’s the plan from what I gather).

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Seems like it ain't much. Just complaining about the Attorney General probably indicting him before the election and how unfair that would be. He wants to confront the state witnesses against hin in court, and otherwise he wants a live tv debate against them, lol.

That was simply embarrassing. If he want's to confront the witness then he should want the trial as fast as he can. I think he's delaying the indictment as there will be embarrassing things there

Anyhow Likud decided on a framework for the list, chief buffoon Karah was essentially squeezed out.

ex generals starting bland parties in now a trend, adding to Ganz and Yaalon, Yom Tov Samia and Gal Hirsch both started their own parties. Not sure which of the two is more megalomaniac 

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Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

basically Tibi is quite popular with the Palestinians and I think he can get past it. Balad are the only ones that really can't, especially considering their free fall

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Joint List has Split with Tibi announcing Taal is going to contest on its own. For the first Time under the new Threshold there are now going to be multiple Arab Lists running.
Also he says that he is not going to join any centre-left Government, which was never going to happen anyway.

Is there any risk that some of the split lists will be under the threshold?  Was that not the reason why there is a joint list in the first place ?

basically Tibi is quite popular with the Palestinians and I think he can get past it. Balad are the only ones that really can't, especially considering their free fall

What's the reason for his split then? I am totally ignorant, but always got the impression that his ourfit wasn't all that different to Balad (as in, the UAL and Hadash would be the ones that seem to have more distinct ideological profiles?). Wasn't he even a member of Balad back in the day?

Personal. He's more popular than Odah and doesn't think he should lead the list, plus he wants more of the list to be manned by his people instead of Balad (who are in freefall) and Ra'am.

ideology wise the new Hadash MKs and new Balad ones are quite close in opinions (Abu Rahmon from Balad is a socialist, and Hadash tabled their basic law: all citizens state, together).

Tibi was never a member of Balad, he and his movement Ta'al are basically the PLO in Israel and Tibi is very close to the PA. While Hadash and Balad are both more critical of Fatah (for different reasons), more secular, and more christian

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Smotric elected to lead the National Front, sorry, Union. Uri Ariel will probably quit politics. Smotric will also most likely lead JH to the elections

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Waiting for BY, Zehut and, I guess, some new Marzel project or Otzma to all crash and burn because the refuse to cooperate, and to all end up under the threshold.

Speaking of that - what are the odds of the threshold still being lowered? Would be absurd given that the election has been called already, but I guess in Israel everything is possible.

I'll start with the latter, very very slim, it's a basic law and changing it needs to happen with the right majority by February 20, which is unlikely considering Deri'i objection.

Zehut won't unite with anyone, and their support is overrated anyhow.

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Elections occurrences:

Gantz filled his list up to the 12th slot, basically nobodies who weren't MKs before. He started speaking but nothing longer than 30 seconds

3 Labour MKs announced they're standing down, all 3 dislike Gabbay. the three are Nahmia-Warbin, Broshi, Bar. win win as both Gabbay and them are terrible people/

Likud primaries, the favorite for the new woman slot is now engulfed in an embarrassing bribery scandal where her husband (a magistrate judge) pimped her to the chief of the Israeli bar for promotion. shame shame shame

Meretz primaries are quite boring actually, no interesting new name is running. maybe Oppenheimer the former head of Peace Now, or Kopatch the former head of the green leaf party and a prat.