Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

I listened to an NPR interview about Arab votes in the election and I heard that like 50% of the Arab/Druze population is boycotting the election due to being unsatisfied with Gantz.

This is completely false. The Large majority of Arabs will vote for the Arab parties, So whatever Gantz does is irrelevant, and satisfaction with the Hadash-TAAL and RAAM-BALAD is far more important.

Even if turnout amongst Arabs is indeed 50%, that wouldn't mean that 50% are actively boycotting the election, just like the 50% or so of Americans who don't vote aren't boycotting the election.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

[danny]

If you thought you have seen some crazy things so far, Feiglin takes it to another level with this Gay foot fetish video.

[Walmart_shopper]

If you thought you have seen some crazy things so far, Feiglin takes it to another level with this Gay foot fetish video.

This is Peak Feiglin. I'm pretty sure the point of Zehut is solely to cross every imaginable boundary in Israeli society and politics.

Edit: apparently Feiglin wants to nominate himself for prime minister. The guy is trolling us.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

This is downright masochistic. But I actually do think there's a basically equal likelihood that the right outright loses the election as there is of the right blowing past the polls and getting close to 70 seats. This is going to be interesting to watch.

[Walmart_shopper]

I listened to an NPR interview about Arab votes in the election and I heard that like 50% of the Arab/Druze population is boycotting the election due to being unsatisfied with Gantz.

It's not clear exactly how many will end up boycotting the election. I suspect that they will end up with turnout closer to 60 than 50 percent, but we'll see. The boycott, though, is less about Gantz and more about checking out of Israeli politics altogether, which many Arabs (right or wrong) view as a Jewish shell game that never amounts to anything other than creeping apartheid and ethnocentrism. They also feel like the Arab parties are simply not effective at fighting the fights of the community in the Knesset, which I actually think is not at all fair. The entire political process is viewed as so backwards and stacked against Arab interests that many just feel ridiculous participating in it.

That said, though, I think a lot of people will be surprised at the strong, unified, and political response on Tuesday by the Arab sector that could tilt the government away from the right.

[brucejoel99]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

With a result like this, are the chances high that Rivlin gives Netanyahu the task of forming a government even though he wouldn't be the head of the largest party (i.e. like Peres did in 2009, based upon the judgment that Netanyahu is in a better position numerically to put together a coalition since Likud's potential partners on the political right will have won more seats than the parties of the centre-left, who would more likely support Gantz)?

[Oryxslayer]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

With a result like this, are the chances high that Rivlin gives Netanyahu the task of forming a government even though he wouldn't be the head of the largest party (i.e. like Peres did in 2009, based upon the judgment that Netanyahu is in a better position numerically to put together a coalition since Likud's potential partners on the political right will have won more seats than the parties of the centre-left, who would more likely support Gantz)?

I was under the impression Likud probably gets the first go unless Gantz has a lead greater than or equal to 5, or the right is incredibly close to or under 60 seats.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

With a result like this, are the chances high that Rivlin gives Netanyahu the task of forming a government even though he wouldn't be the head of the largest party (i.e. like Peres did in 2009, based upon the judgment that Netanyahu is in a better position numerically to put together a coalition since Likud's potential partners on the political right will have won more seats than the parties of the centre-left, who would more likely support Gantz)?

Absolutely. In this nightmare scenario Bibi would have a majority even without Zehut. Most likely Blue White will need to lead Likud by at least three to five seats to have a realistic shot at forming the government. It's possible, but not likely, that Blue White will lead by only one but the right only gets maybe 61 seats, or Likud leads by one or two mandates but without a right wing majority, in which case nobody knows what Rivlin would decide. Many people expect Blue and White to lead, but the margin of that lead will likely determine whether they have quite realistic shot at forming a coalition.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is my prediction for the election:

KL- 29 Seats
Likud- 28 Seats
Labour- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism- 7 Seats
Hadash-Ta'al- 7 Seats
Zehut- 7 Seats
United Right Wing Parties- 6 Seats
New Right- 5 Seats
Shas- 5 Seats
Kulanu- 5 Seats
Meretz- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu- 4 Seats
Ra'am-Balad- 4 Seats
Gesher- 0 Seats

Why? Because I'm a pessimist. I hope the center-left overperforms and at least YB and Kulanu\Shas drop below the threshold, but my prediction is simply a repeat of 2015- right-wingers coming home and a scare campaign turning them out in droves.

With a result like this, are the chances high that Rivlin gives Netanyahu the task of forming a government even though he wouldn't be the head of the largest party (i.e. like Peres did in 2009, based upon the judgment that Netanyahu is in a better position numerically to put together a coalition since Likud's potential partners on the political right will have won more seats than the parties of the centre-left, who would more likely support Gantz)?

I was under the impression Likud probably gets the first go unless Gantz has a lead greater than or equal to 5, or the right is incredibly close to or under 60 seats.

Only once in Israeli electoral history has the runner up been selected to form a government first, and that was when Livni finished only one mandate above Likud. I would be very surprised if the first place party didn't get the first crack at forming a coalition this time unless the margin was one seat and the right bloc has a clear majority

[Oryxslayer]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

[Comrade Funk]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

Do you make American election predictions?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Right now I'm predicting Likud and Blue and White finish close to each other ~2 seats with Likud being ahead and having the first go at government formation, I don't think Gesher gets in while YB gets in

[Oryxslayer]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

Do you make American election predictions?

Never 'officially,' for similar reasons. I make plenty of partisan statements all the time though, or else why would I be on this forum. I have also made plenty of predictions for world elections on @oryxmaps.

[Walmart_shopper]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

I'm actually curious what you think will happen.

[Hnv1]

My prediction:
B&W 32
Likud 30
Labour 11
Hadash 7
UTJ 7
URW 6
Zehut 6
Shas 5
Meretz 4
Raam Balad 4
New right 4
YB - 4

both the New Right and YB will just barely make it.

[Famous Mortimer]

BTW I'm just going to say that I am too invested in this election personally as a Jew to make an unbiased prediction.

Do you make American election predictions?

lol

[DavidB.]

Prediction:

Likud 32
B&W 31
Labour 10
Hadash-Ta'al 8
UTJ 7
Zehut 7
New Right 6
URWP 6
Meretz 5
Shas 4
Kulanu 4

Ra'am-Balad, YB below threshold

Right-religious 66, center-left-Arab 54. But Netanyahu needs Kulanu and Zehut.

[_]

Y'know, following this election and talking with Parrotguy and HCP have really changed my views on Israel, a lot, and I just want to thank them for that.

Anyway a prediction:

B&W:  33 Seats
Likud:  29 Seats
Labor:  13 Seats
Hadash-Ta'Al:  9 Seats
Meretz:  7 Seats
Zehut:  7 Seats
URWP:  6 Seats
New Right:  6 Seats
UTJ:  6 Seats
Shas:  4 Seats

YB, Kulanu, Ra'am Balad, and Gesher below the threshold.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Imo, David's scenario means a right-wing government despite Netanyahu's hate for Feiglin. Not_Madigan's scenario is a unity government, most likely. Also:

Y'know, following this election and talking with Parrotguy and HCP have really changed my views on Israel, a lot, and I just want to thank them for that.

Thank

[Boobs]

Likud 32
KL 28
Labor 10
Hadash-Ta’al 8
UTJ 7
Zehut 7
New Right 7
URWP 7
Meretz 6
Shas 5
YB 5
Kulanu 4
Gesher 4

Ra’am-Balad below threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Okay if you really want a prediction out of me, fine. But I am fully ready for this to be wrong, since it is tainted by my bias - I really want to be able to give Bibi the middle finger tomorrow.

First off, I suspect the polls have been off, but not by a lot. There is a reason why about a month ago I started fixating more on the swings in polls rather than the topline numbers. In 2015 as we all know, opinion polling overshot the left. In 2013 they somewhat overshot Likud and undershot Yesh Atid. In 2009, Kadima was underpolled, and and the smaller parties were overpolled. There is a lot going on, and with so many parties close to the threshold, multiple parties might end up the benefits of polling error if someones getting over-sampled. But generally, the polls have been close to the target, but not right there, and I'm no expert on predicting where 'there' is.

Second, Likud is running scared. A lot of Bibi's actions that have made the news have seemed to be defensive, as if they are or were in a worse spot than the polls show. He has been unable to take cards that Trump has been dealing to him. If anything, Bibi has been running a campaign that is trying to reunite the right under one banner, despite the fact that these moves damage the party block. Bibi's move over the West Bank is just another one of these moves. The West Bank when polled, unlike Gaza, beings up a large variety of opinions, with no opinion close to a plurality. The people who support Bibi's actions are already in his or another right-religious camp. Pulling them towards Likud or increasing turnout with these voters, and indirectly raising the number of votes required to pass the threshold, doesn't benefit the block, it benefits Likud.

So what does these two things tell me? First, B&W probably is going to get more seats then the polls show. Second, Likud's moves will cause them to meet B&W up there in the mid-30s, but in doing so, parties like YB, Kulanu, and Shas are going to drop, benefiting everyone in seat counts. This in my mind could be the most bi-polar election Israel has seen in a long time, and in the end no government except the grand coalition may be form-able.  

I expect B&W wins this race upwards. If you want a seat by seat prediction, think of Not_A_Man's but more extreme, with more seats for the big two coming from Labour & Meretz (much lower, closer to polling), the right wing minors (a bit lower here and there), and potentially Shas (out) but their base seems loyal. Both Likud and B&W would be in the mid 30s, with a B&W lead of three seats.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

[danny]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

Yes, the courts overturned that decision and banned one of the Kahanists instead.

[Walmart_shopper]

Y'know, following this election and talking with Parrotguy and HCP have really changed my views on Israel, a lot, and I just want to thank them for that.

Anyway a prediction:

B&W:  33 Seats
Likud:  29 Seats
Labor:  13 Seats
Hadash-Ta'Al:  9 Seats
Meretz:  7 Seats
Zehut:  7 Seats
URWP:  6 Seats
New Right:  6 Seats
UTJ:  6 Seats
Shas:  4 Seats

YB, Kulanu, Ra'am Balad, and Gesher below the threshold.

I can't allow myself to think a result this good will happen.