Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Gass3268]

NPR-PBS-Marist (Last poll was in April):

39% Approve (+1) (25% Strongly)
51% Disapprove (-3) (41% Strongly)

Source

[Brittain33]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (-2)

Source

This poll makes me happy, but Trump seems to have a bedrock of 38% support for almost every poll even slightly related to him.

The deplorables will never give up, they can only be outvoted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters are seeing the truth that Trump got into office to profit: tax cuts that benefits the rich like himself. Entitlement reform and Immigration reform need to be dealt with and he waisted two years.

[KingSweden]

Kind of sad when you step back and look at all the obsessing we do over Trump's poll movements.

ATLAS

[OneJ]

Kind of sad when you step back and look at all the obsessing we do over Trump's poll movements.

This isn’t entirely true...you only obsess over downward poll movements. A 0.4% downtick in his numbers will get five threads, but a 0.4% uptick is meaningless noise.

Thunder98 should never call out Hofoid again after a ridiculous post like this.

I’m guessing you don’t see the times when people got anxious over his climb in the polls...

Also why are you so upset over such a harmless post?

[CookieDamage]

Kind of sad when you step back and look at all the obsessing we do over Trump's poll movements.

This isn’t entirely true...you only obsess over downward poll movements. A 0.4% downtick in his numbers will get five threads, but a 0.4% uptick is meaningless noise.

Thunder98 should never call out Hofoid again after a ridiculous post like this.

I’m guessing you don’t see the times when people got anxious over his climb in the polls...

Also why are you so upset over such a harmless post?

Because twenty is a trump supporter and that's what they do

[BudgieForce]

So probably doesn't mean anything, and I'm cherry picking, but most of Trump's more favorable polls show even(or close to it) party i.d:

Marist -12 approval:
35% - Democrat
27% - Republican
36% - Independent

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_Pres.-Trump-Congress-and-the-Midterm-Elections_July-2018_181807241056.pdf#page=3

Quinnipiac -20 approval:
31% - Democrat
25% - Republican
38% - Independent

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us07242018_demos_ufgp12.pdf/

Morning Consult -6 approval:
35% - Democrat
34% - Republican
25% - Independent

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180736_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_DK.pdf

I know we're not supposed to read too much into party i.d, but its pretty obvious some pollsters are seeing very different electorates right now.

[pbrower2a]

So probably doesn't mean anything, and I'm cherry picking, but most of Trump's more favorable polls show even(or close to it) party i.d:

Marist -12 approval:
35% - Democrat
27% - Republican
36% - Independent

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_Pres.-Trump-Congress-and-the-Midterm-Elections_July-2018_181807241056.pdf#page=3

Quinnipiac -20 approval:
31% - Democrat
25% - Republican
38% - Independent

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us07242018_demos_ufgp12.pdf/

Morning Consult -6 approval:
35% - Democrat
34% - Republican
25% - Independent

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180736_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_DK.pdf

I know we're not supposed to read too much into party i.d, but its pretty obvious some pollsters are seeing very different electorates right now.

 

It could be that Morning Consult recognizes fewer 'independent' voters, probably accepting that people who voted with the GOP in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 despite claiming to be independent might as well be Republicans now.  Quinnipiac sees fewer partisan voters and more independent voters.

It is possible to have different polling results based upon one's screen. "Adults" includes people unlikely to vote. Registered voters will find voting easy if they so wish. Both of these are easy to determine.

So who is a 'likely voter'? Good question. Someone on life support in terminal care is hard to write off even if the person hasn't missed a vote in over 60 years. Habits may not die, but the person will.  In my county, the election officials read the obituaries and disqualify absentee votes from persons who can be identified as decedents. On the other side, what of someone who turns eighteen a couple days before the election, who has not yet registered to vote but shows signs of registering at the first possible moment,  and considers voting just slightly less of a rite of passage than driving a motor vehicle or graduating from high school?

Some people born in as late as 2002 who have never voted will vote in the 2020 election. Nobody can predict who those people are.

If one sees changes in predictors of voting based on how certain demographics will vote, and so far that appears as approval and disapproval, then we may have cause for believing that the political climate has changed. Quinnipiac just had a poll  in which it connected people distrustful of both parties voting largely for Republicans beginning in 2010 and lasting through 2016 -- only to find that such voters have swung sharply against Republicans including the President.  I don't have to discuss why such voters swung sharply R in 2010 or why they have suddenly swung as they have. I do not need to connect such to other demographic characteristics as religion, ethnicity, education, income, or region. A vote is a vote.  Maybe I will do as I am prone -- showing a model of how such changes  expectations of the 2020 election if that alone is applied as a shift in voters from 2016 to 2020.       

[pbrower2a]

2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

Just a reminder, folks, that the threadmaster froze the 1.2 forum after about 2000 posts. This is #1994. I have started 1.4, so bring the posts that you want to start with and build on over there.

[Gass3268]

Trump very unpopular in the Upper Midwest:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1022224998088540170

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump very unpopular in the Upper Midwest:

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1022224998088540170

Trump has governed as a plutocratic Grover Norquist protege, not the anti wall street populist he promised. The Midwest remembers, and the Republican party will be punished by the hard working FFs in the Midwest.

[The Dowager Mod]

New thread here.