COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Calthrina950]

The good news is that we have made historic progress on a vaccine for a virus we didn’t even know existed just a year ago.
This does show that our scientific community really can achieve incredible feats when they collaborate.

Also, hopefully Covid makes people more aware of potential pandemics in general.
One thing I have been concerned about for years is the lack of new antibiotics and the accompanied increase of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. If Covid forces us to actually pay attention to these types of health issues, it will have been a net benefit in the long term.

Did you hear about Polis' diagnosis with coronavirus? And do you know if there's been any other governors recently who've gotten it, besides him?

[Calthrina950]

Meanwhile, on Earth 2, Gov. Chris King has actually been caring about fighting the pandemic.

And on Earth 2, Biden won in a decisive landslide and the Democrats made gains in both Houses of Congress. Which reminds me...I'll have to resume work on the scenario I promised to do of a Democratic landslide this year.

[Calthrina950]

Trump fixated on his own political fate as virus kills record number of Americans

A day after the United States' coronavirus daily death toll nearly surpassed the number killed in the Sept. 11 attacks, President Donald Trump remained out of sight -- fixated not on the raging pandemic but rather on his own political fate.

The president made no public appearances Friday, a day after the United States recorded 2,879 Americans deaths caused by COVID-19, 217,664 confirmed cases of the virus and over 100,000 hospitalizations -- all records.

Trump has spent his waning days in office not focused on leading the United States through a historic, deadly crisis but rather fundraising for his future political endeavors and sowing doubt in the country's democratic foundations.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fixated-political-fate-virus-kills-record-number/story?id=74536821

As I said a few weeks ago, Trump has no incentive to focus on the pandemic response now that he has lost reelection (and he didn't even give it the proper focus to begin with). He simply doesn't care about those Americans who are suffering and dying from it, even though he himself, along with his wife and two of his sons, have contracted and recovered from the virus-to say nothing about his many staffers, members of his cabinet, Republican politicians, etc. who have gotten it. Trump's behavior during this lame duck period has solidified his status as one of the worst Presidents in our history.

[Calthrina950]

So now the Pfizer vaccine has been approved and will be distributed starting this week, with Moderna likely to follow suit on the 17th. How soon before we see a real effect?

This is good to hear. But I suspect it will be at least 5-6 months before we start to see an impact from the vaccine's dissemination. Obviously, medical workers, high-risk and elderly patients, and essential workers will receive the vaccine first before the remainder of the population.

[Calthrina950]

I hope people dont let their guard down for the next couple of months as it's unlikely the average person will be able to get a vaccine until sometime from April to July

That it is the estimate which I provided earlier, but some on here are confident that the vaccine will be widely disseminated before that.

[Calthrina950]

Fauci just said on MSNBC that he expects every adult who wants a vaccine will have it by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021. But when asked about getting back to normal, he said that a vaccine is a complement not a substitute for COVID public health measures, and that it may be in the 2nd half of 2021 or longer before the level of infection is low enough that things can get back to what they were before.  🤷‍♂️

As I've said, I wouldn't be surprised if mask mandates were still in force a year from now. Hopefully, they won't continue into 2022.

[Calthrina950]

How many do you think will be dead by March 15?

We'll probably be well over 400,000 by that point, perhaps close to 450,000.

[Calthrina950]

So I watched the White House press briefing a little bit ago with Dr. Fauci and I think it was the first press briefing in 4 years where there was someone at that podium who was smarter than me and who used a word here and there that I didn't 100% know the meaning. I am so here for Dr. Fauci bringing the science.

Dr. Fauci admitted that it was a relief he could now speak his mind, without fear of repercussions. It's well known that Trump was contemplating the firing of Fauci, and he would have gone forward with doing so had he won reelection. As I've said before, Fauci must be greatly pleased that Biden is now President. Biden is already adopting a much more serious tone towards the pandemic than Trump ever did, and isn't sugarcoating things like Trump.

And the White House has adopted new procedures (i.e. mandatory masking for all on the premises, more frequent coronavirus testing, more thorough cleaning practices, etc.), with regards to its own operations, that reflects the new Administration's focus. I am so glad that the residence is finally free of the Trump family's presence.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/1353821818449129473?s=20

Jim Justice is corrupt, but he's actually run one of the more competent responses of any Republican governor to the pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

The University of Washington model is showing less than that, around 89,000 additional deaths by June 1.  So we could potentially be rounding a corner, finally.   

That said, there are caveats:

But experts warn that dangerous variants could cause the trend to reverse itself. And some experts say not enough Americans have been inoculated yet for the vaccine to be making much of a difference.

Instead, the drop-off in deaths and cases has been attributed to the passing of the holidays; the cold and bleak days of midwinter, when many people stay home; and better adherence to mask rules and social distancing.

The Spanish Flu of a century ago killed about as many Americans as the Civil War did. Hopefully, coronavirus won't reach that level, but sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure if this article by Dr. Julia Marcus has been posted here yet, but it crystalizes a lot of the feelings I've had about how the messaging re: vaccines has been totally mishandled. I hope in the next few weeks we'll have better guidance from the CDC, because telling people "do nothing differently" is not a way to drive vaccination rates up, even if it is the only 100% sure way of risk mitigation. (As Marcus points out, "trying to eliminate even the lowest-risk changes in behavior both underestimates people’s need to be close to one another and discourages the very thing that will get everyone out of this mess: vaccine uptake.")

Thoughts from anyone smarter than I? Am I misreading the whole situation?

It hasn't been a serious problem yet, demand for vaccine still outstrips supply but it was extremely stupid to discourage the vaccine so much.

I get that being overly pessimistic isn't helpful but what?

They might be referring to the sensationalistic way the media trumpets every single side effect or post-vaccination infection in dark tones, without emphasizing just how rare these are.

The media is the reason why I significantly cut back on watching television over the past year. The profit motive remains ever present, and the pandemic has provided them with additional opportunity to take advantage of things for their own benefit. I think media coverage has helped to contribute to many of the anxieties which people have had with regards to the pandemic, prevention measures, and the lockdowns.

[Calthrina950]

Ironically enough trump himself ended up showing the world just how quickly things can go wrong when you have a group of people sitting together who refuse to wear a mask

A lot of the people in this photo including Trump may have not ended up getting Covid had they simply chose to wear a mask that day



So far nothing close to this has happened with the mask wearing Biden white house

It's a blessing that no one at that event, so far as I know, died from the virus. And of course, viral spread isn't always equal, as many of the people who attended-such as Barrett (who did have the virus previously and recovered from it), Blackburn, Hawley, etc.-did not contract the virus.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/anniekarni/status/1366517360673386501

It’s perfectly reasonable for Trump to get the vaccine, but I have no idea why his wife would be eligible.

Wealth and influence goes a long way. And don't forget the position she still held at the time.

[Calthrina950]

2022 is going to feel so weird, because it will be the year everything is finally returned to "normal". Although the handshake is probably dead and masks might just become a regular fashion thing.

Thank you, President Biden.

Way earlier than that. Probably this summer.

What he means is that 2022 will be the first year entirely in the "post-Covid" era, with everything back at normal-so far as normal can possibly be devised. The pandemic will have a permanent impact upon some aspects of society. It has accelerated the death of the traditional movie theater industry, and has put a dent into the bottom-line of museums and other such entertainment venues. Schools, although resuming in-person instruction, will probably incorporate more technology into their curriculums going forward. Masks will be worn by some people during flu season, and the stigma which they had prior to the pandemic will be gone. And I think people will be more cognizant of their health then they were before.

[Calthrina950]

The problem with blanket statements such as "decline is caused by factor X and not factor Y" is that ALL of the factors affect transmission, and they're all operating simultaneously.  Ultimately it comes down to a very simple equation: if R, the average number of persons infected by one person, is greater than 1 then the disease will continue to spread.  If R is less than 1 then it will eventually die out, or at least reduce to a manageable level; but depending on how much lower than 1 it is, and how many cases are already out there, this reduction can take a very long time.

Although that’s a simple statement, in practice it’s far from simple.  Many factors influence R over time.  The initial R value for COVID-19 was estimated at anywhere between 1.4 and 5; for comparison, seasonal flu is usually in the range 1.2 to 2 while measles (which is extremely contagious) is about 15.  But different COVID variants have different properties, including how contagious they are; some of the more recent variants appear to have higher R values than older strains. 

Human activity affects the effective value of R; for example, all of these can help R go down:

Vaccinations
People being infected and recovering (ignoring the possibility of reinfection, which appears to be quite low)
Masks when around other people
Social distancing while around other people
Staying away from other people (whether mandated lockdown or from personal caution)

On the flip side, behaviors that bring more people close together will make R go up, e.g. getting together (especially in large, close gatherings), not wearing masks around others, and activities like singing and shouting that spread aerosol droplets further.

All of these factors are constantly working in both directions.  Some new variants are more contagious, which would cause us to lose ground.  But more and more people are being vaccinated, which makes progress against the virus.  The graph I posted above showed that these two factors seemed to be in something of an equilibrium at the moment in the U.S.
In some other countries things are different: the EU is losing ground because they're not vaccinating fast enough to counteract other factors (new variants plus people doing less distancing, etc.), while Israel is the opposite: their aggressive vaccination program has them actually winning.

The key lesson here is that it's important not to ignore the other factors.  We need to continue to practice social distancing, masking, etc., until the virus is much more under control than it currently is.  It doesn’t take much to push R to the other side of 1 – in either direction.  And a very small difference in R makes a world of difference overall.

How much longer do you envision these practices lasting? Until this summer? Or until the end of the year?

[Calthrina950]

Apparently 15 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine are being scrapped because there was an ingredients mix-up and they didn't pass a quality check. J&J says they still plan to deliver 100 million doses by June.

Johnson & Johnson Halts Shipment of COVID Vaccine after Factory Mistake Ruins 15 Million Doses

Bummer

I saw this on the news this morning. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine rollout has been marred with difficulties, while the rollouts of Pfizer and Moderna (especially Pfizer) have been much smoother and have had far fewer problems.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/johnfraher/status/1378996450051379202

What the hell is South Africa doing?

Given that South Africa has struggled mightily with HIV/AIDs over the past thirty years, I'm not surprised that they are struggling with their response to this current pandemic, which has only compounded their existing problems.

[Calthrina950]

Why are Biden and Harris still wearing masks inside the White House since they and all of the others there are vaccinated?

Probably to set an example, since there are still a lot of people who haven't gotten vaccines yet. But when we get to the point where everyone who wants a vaccine can get one, we can start ditching masks.

I think they think that, but at this point if you're not wearing one you never will and if you are you will continue to do so.  It's just theater.

This part is true. For almost a year now, I've been making note of maskless customers at my own job. The number has remained at around 20% for months now, although there are signs of an uptick. Some of the maskless are habitual customers who I've never seen wear a mask throughout the entire pandemic. They're not going to start now.

[Calthrina950]

Why are Biden and Harris still wearing masks inside the White House since they and all of the others there are vaccinated?

Probably to set an example, since there are still a lot of people who haven't gotten vaccines yet. But when we get to the point where everyone who wants a vaccine can get one, we can start ditching masks.

I think they think that, but at this point if you're not wearing one you never will and if you are you will continue to do so.  It's just theater.

This part is true. For almost a year now, I've been making note of maskless customers at my own job. The number has remained at around 20% for months now, although there are signs of an uptick. Some of the maskless are habitual customers who I've never seen wear a mask throughout the entire pandemic. They're not going to start now.

Why does your store continue to let these fools in?

I've said repeatedly that The Home Depot does not enforce the mask mandate, as we employees have been specifically told not to confront or deny service to those who are maskless.

[Calthrina950]

Well, I can say that I've now been scheduled to receive my first coronavirus shot. I will be going in for an appointment with Kaiser Permanente, my family's insurance provider, this coming Monday. Fortunately, I am off that day, so I don't have to worry about adjusting my work schedule. I don't know which vaccine I'll be receiving yet.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

"A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-walensky.html

Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.


What do you expect Fauci to say at this stage with less than half of Americans fully vaccinated? You shouldn't state anything in concrete form until they unearth more of the unknowns of the virus. That's why you see scientific studies always saying "it may increase the risk of xx" even if it supports previous studies stating the same.

For someone like Silver whose specialty is hedging with remarks like "Trump could still have a chance", his attacks on Fauci and diction of "gaslighting" are relatively undeserved.

Fauci remains cautious, and I think his comments may very well have been misinterpreted. He and other public health officials, including the CDC Director, have urged people to continue to adhering to coronavirus precautions until we've obtained a higher vaccination rate. He seems to believe we will be back to normal by the time this year is out.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

"A growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection and potentially less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. However, further investigation is ongoing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/health/coronavirus-vaccine-walensky.html

Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.


What do you expect Fauci to say at this stage with less than half of Americans fully vaccinated? You shouldn't state anything in concrete form until they unearth more of the unknowns of the virus. That's why you see scientific studies always saying "it may increase the risk of xx" even if it supports previous studies stating the same.

For someone like Silver whose specialty is hedging with remarks like "Trump could still have a chance", his attacks on Fauci and diction of "gaslighting" are relatively undeserved.

Fauci remains cautious, and I think his comments may very well have been misinterpreted. He and other public health officials, including the CDC Director, have urged people to continue to adhering to coronavirus precautions until we've obtained a higher vaccination rate. He seems to believe we will be back to normal by the time this year is out.

Agreed. I have no problem with CDC, as they often seem to be, on the conservative side of conclusions. I don't care about Fauci much at all, but the hatred and nitpicking that he gets from the right and even the left wingers are absurd.

Many on the right seem to believe that Fauci is controlling the federal government's entire coronavirus response, and even the responses of the more restrictive states. Of course, many of those same people also believe in the conspiracy theories that Fauci colluded with Bill Gates, the Chinese Government, and other elements to engineer the pandemic. As I've said before, the man is merely doing the job which he's done for nearly 40 years now.

[Calthrina950]

This is worrying

The NYP is reporting that a 52 year old man is in the icu with covid19 35 DAYS after getting the JJ vaccine


Johnson and Johnson trial studies didn’t have a SINGLE person hospitalized with covid after 28 days

Looks like the JJ study was wrong or faulty

https://t.co/8oiG7sIC5U?amp=1

The problems with the Johnson and Johnson vaccine continue to build. In addition to this, the supply of the vaccine is expected to decline by nearly 90% this week due to the contamination issues which led to 15 million doses being discarded. Even putting aside the fact that its availability will decline, I think that more people will avoid Johnson and Johnson if they have the ability to do so. Pfizer, which has done exceptionally well and is already the most common vaccine, will be even more preferred after this.

[Calthrina950]

We need to stop with the shutdown talk. 

The vulnerable population has had ample opportunity to get vaccinated at this point.  Why would you punish those who have done the responsible thing and gotten vaccinated and who should now be able to behave normally with almost no risk because a bunch of crazy people refuse to believe in science? 

Compulsory vaccination would be much less harmful than shutdowns and no one seems to be even willing to consider it.

I don't think mandatory vaccinations are a good idea, but I am in favor of incentives to those getting vaccinated and "discriminating" against those who are unwilling.

-If you want your child to attend public schools, the entire family should have to be vaccinated.
-To enter ANY place of business, you must present a vaccination card (likewise to operate any business).  *If you aren't vaccinated and need groceries, your only option is contact-less instacart and/or clicklist.
-To board a plane or boat must require proof of vaccination.
-To cross state lines must present a vaccination card.
-Jail sentences and/or hefty fines for anyone refusing to wear a mask while in public places...while the vaccination card allows you to go on about your day.

I'm all about allowing someone the freedom to choose between vaccination or not, and I'm also all about declining service/certain freedoms if you don't get vaccinated.

While I certainly don't object to colleges and businesses requiring their students and employees to be vaccinated, and I don't object to travel restrictions (at least international travel restrictions) being imposed on those who are unvaccinated, I think some of the suggestions you offer here are excessive. How are you going to stop people from crossing state lines, if they're on a road trip or traveling from their place of residence to their place of work and back (if such places happen to be in different states, as is the case for a not insubstantial number of people)? How would you justify preventing unvaccinated people from utilizing emergency or essential services? A vaccination mandate in my view would have to be carefully tailored, lest it not survive legal scrutiny and be struck down.

[Calthrina950]

Why are there all of these fears that we're about to get plunged back into lockdown, simply because of the issues with Johnson and Johnson? We have two other vaccines out there, and we are on track to have the vast majority of the population immunized.