Oregon 4th district will flip R

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans are running a jacked, handsome 27 year old military veteran against an old democratic incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenge in decades. In addition, the Republican challenger has out raised DeFazio in Q1. Finally, he has a heroic backstory where he and 2 other friends stopped a terrorist attack, and Obama complimented him over it.

OR-04 was Hillary +0.1. This is the 3rd most likely flip in November 2020.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

He literally out preformed Hillary by 20 points in 2016. He is not going to lose to a no name, even if Trump squeezes out a win in this district

Alek isn’t a no name. He’s been fundraising a ton of money. He’s already been fundraising more than Defazio Lots of democratic candidates were no names with no political experience in 2018, yet did extremely well.

Also Defazio outperformed by 20 pts because his opponent was a total joke who’s run like 8 times.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Press X to doubt.

In all seriousness, the Republicans have a lot of other, more attractive targets this cycle. They're not going to spend on this one.

Republicans aren’t flipping the house without this district.

I bet no one here was predicting CA-25 to flip before the polls said so.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

lmao, I hate to break it to you, but Biden voters in Oregon aren’t splitting their tickets en masse for a Generic Republican just because he “attracts attention” or whatever that means. DeFazio will easily win by 8-10.

I have a statue of DeFazio that I pray to every night in my house. I derive no pleasure from announcing his imminent demise.