Oregon 4th district will flip R

[Politics Fan]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

I'm assuming your trolling but regardless incumbents for the House just don't lose their seat if their parties nominee for President carries barring some scandal or other controversy with few exceptions.

Here is the list of incumbents that lost:

2016
Frank Guinta NH-1(Campaign finance scandal still almost held on)
Scott Garrett NJ-5 (Not a scandal for say but Garrett was very socially conservative in a district that wasn't and had made some controversial comments in the past.)

2012
Leonard Boswell IA-3 (Perennial underperformer going against a popular incumbent Republican.)
Allen West FL-18  (polarizing candidate that is all I need to say)
Quico Canseco TX-23 (Can't find much on him accept for some minor controversies. Though was pretty much a party line rep that got swept through with the 2010 wave.)

2008
Marilyn Musgrave CO-4 (Polarizing candidate that was very socially conservative)
Tom Feeney FL-24 (Been tied up with a number of ethics controversies and scandals)
Bill Sali ID-1 (Polarizing candidate who made controversial statements about multiculturalism )
Bill Jefferson LA-2 (Corruption scandal)
Robin Hayes NC-8 (Controversial comments late in the campaign may have did him in also went up against a strong challenger that almost beat him in 06.)
Phil English PA-3 (One of the few exceptions of someone that lost for no real ethical or political controversies. Still Obama only lost this district by 17 votes)
Virgil Goode (Very Conservative candidate that had been involved in multiple political controversies.)

I'll stop here but as you can see pretty much every incumbent that loses while their Presidential parties nominee wins does so because of some political or ethics controversy.

[VAR]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1318869254566010881

[Mr.Phips]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

I'm assuming your trolling but regardless incumbents for the House just don't lose their seat if their parties nominee for President carries barring some scandal or other controversy with few exceptions.

Here is the list of incumbents that lost:

2016
Frank Guinta NH-1(Campaign finance scandal still almost held on)
Scott Garrett NJ-5 (Not a scandal for say but Garrett was very socially conservative in a district that wasn't and had made some controversial comments in the past.)

2012
Leonard Boswell IA-3 (Perennial underperformer going against a popular incumbent Republican.)
Allen West FL-18  (polarizing candidate that is all I need to say)
Quico Canseco TX-23 (Can't find much on him accept for some minor controversies. Though was pretty much a party line rep that got swept through with the 2010 wave.)

2008
Marilyn Musgrave CO-4 (Polarizing candidate that was very socially conservative)
Tom Feeney FL-24 (Been tied up with a number of ethics controversies and scandals)
Bill Sali ID-1 (Polarizing candidate who made controversial statements about multiculturalism )
Bill Jefferson LA-2 (Corruption scandal)
Robin Hayes NC-8 (Controversial comments late in the campaign may have did him in also went up against a strong challenger that almost beat him in 06.)
Phil English PA-3 (One of the few exceptions of someone that lost for no real ethical or political controversies. Still Obama only lost this district by 17 votes)
Virgil Goode (Very Conservative candidate that had been involved in multiple political controversies.)

I'll stop here but as you can see pretty much every incumbent that loses while their Presidential parties nominee wins does so because of some political or ethics controversy.

The old NC-08 actually went for Obama by a decent margin.

[Stranger in a strange land]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

IIRC it failed in Texas b/c the Dems wimped out. 

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

IIRC it failed in Texas b/c the Dems wimped out. 

What a bunch of idiots.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

IIRC it failed in Texas b/c the Dems wimped out.  

But yeah I fail to see how this would be a national issue, each state party would need to do what they feel is the most effective to save themselves, in Oregon they would have had to change it constitutionally.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's an update on OR-04 ballot returns for you doomers who actually thought Skarlatos would win this:

63% of 2016 turnout.

Democrat: 109,841 (44%)
Republican: 75,492 (30%)
Unaffiliated/Other: 64,535 (26%)

It just isn't happening.

[Suburbia]

I think Skarlatos wins by 2

[Young Conservative]

Here's an update on OR-04 ballot returns for you doomers who actually thought Skarlatos would win this:

63% of 2016 turnout.

Democrat: 109,841 (44%)
Republican: 75,492 (30%)
Unaffiliated/Other: 64,535 (26%)

It just isn't happening.

Based on the way early voting is changing the composition of voters in Florida, I would imagine it will change the composition here as well. This is not a race that is over, or even remotely safe.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's an update on OR-04 ballot returns for you doomers who actually thought Skarlatos would win this:

63% of 2016 turnout.

Democrat: 109,841 (44%)
Republican: 75,492 (30%)
Unaffiliated/Other: 64,535 (26%)

It just isn't happening.

Based on the way early voting is changing the composition of voters in Florida, I would imagine it will change the composition here as well. This is not a race that is over, or even remotely safe.

Oregon is an all vote by mail state and has been for decades. It doesn't have that same partisan turnout disparity on election day.

[OBD]

DeFazio will be fine. Eugene and Corvallis won't let him lose, especially not this year.

That said, this seat is clearly going for Democrats, Best to create a Southern Oregon R vote-sink and draw 4 safe seats in Portland and the Valley.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

DeFazio will be fine. Eugene and Corvallis won't let him lose, especially not this year.

That said, this seat is clearly going for Democrats, Best to create a Southern Oregon R vote-sink and draw 4 safe seats in Portland and the Valley.

I agree although the Southern Oregon seat could probably be a toss-up while keeping the other 4 safe depending on how you cut Eugene/Springfield.

[OBD]

DeFazio will be fine. Eugene and Corvallis won't let him lose, especially not this year.

That said, this seat is clearly going for Democrats, Best to create a Southern Oregon R vote-sink and draw 4 safe seats in Portland and the Valley.

I agree although the Southern Oregon seat could probably be a toss-up while keeping the other 4 safe depending on how you cut Eugene/Springfield.

Eh, you need all of Eugene (and Ashland!) to keep the Southern Oregon seat competitive. Best to sink Linn County and the red parts of Marion and Clackamas while drawing Defazio and Schrader safe seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

DeFazio will be fine. Eugene and Corvallis won't let him lose, especially not this year.

That said, this seat is clearly going for Democrats, Best to create a Southern Oregon R vote-sink and draw 4 safe seats in Portland and the Valley.

I agree although the Southern Oregon seat could probably be a toss-up while keeping the other 4 safe depending on how you cut Eugene/Springfield.

Eh, you need all of Eugene (and Ashland!) to keep the Southern Oregon seat competitive. Best to sink Linn County and the red parts of Marion and Clackamas while drawing Defazio and Schrader safe seats.

Oh that's a fugly map but I guess it would work.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's an update on OR-04 ballot returns for you doomers who actually thought Skarlatos would win this:

63% of 2016 turnout.

Democrat: 109,841 (44%)
Republican: 75,492 (30%)
Unaffiliated/Other: 64,535 (26%)

It just isn't happening.

Update over the busy weekend:

74% of 2016 turnout.

D: 124,586 (43%)
R: 90,835 (31%)
O: 77,293 (26%)

Up to 3/4 of 2016 turnout and the Republicans are still 12 points behind lol.

[NOVA Green]

Here's an update on OR-04 ballot returns for you doomers who actually thought Skarlatos would win this:

63% of 2016 turnout.

Democrat: 109,841 (44%)
Republican: 75,492 (30%)
Unaffiliated/Other: 64,535 (26%)

It just isn't happening.

Update over the busy weekend:

74% of 2016 turnout.

D: 124,586 (43%)
R: 90,835 (31%)
O: 77,293 (26%)

Up to 3/4 of 2016 turnout and the Republicans are still 12 points behind lol.

Honest question... where are you getting your CD-04 EV numbers from?   

We have a few counties that have some splits between CD's, but don't believe the SoS is breaking it down by CD's yet.

So let's look at the County level numbers for all places located within CD-04 with an RV vs EV numbers:



If we look at it by % numbers we see the following:



Obvious caveats:

1.) The most Republican and populous part of Josephine County (Grants Pass) is actually located in CD-02, meaning that we should not be expecting to see +10k PUB CD-04 margins out of Josephine, even if MISC voters there break PUB.

2.) Lane County is a DeFazio stronghold, and as I have previously posted it will be extremely unlikely to see much (if any) significant movement against DeFazio in 2020, since whatever gains Skarlatos might pick up some of the more rural parts of the County, will likely be covered by NAV newer voters in Metro Eugene-Springfield.

3.) DeFazio continues to be popular with Seniors along the Oregon Coast, so although perhaps we might see PRES and US-REP numbers align a bit more in 2020, it's difficult to envision him losing many votes from Curry, Coos County, and even up into Florence along the Oregon Coast, especially in the current COVID-19 environment.

4.) Douglas and Linn Counties, would be the type of places where I might envision CD-04 numbers aligning a bit more with US-PRES numbers.

The problem with Linn County for Skarlatos, is that although he will likely build a bit in places like Lebanon, Sweet Home, and rural Linn, he's not going to be able to run up the numbers enough, especially with Albany as a transportation corridor, where DeFazio helped swing the deal for the location of one of the two new region railroad hubs within OR a few years back. (Other one being out in Malheur County (Ontario OR) in CD-02)

Plus Albany is flipping Biden anyways in 2020, as I have previously posted.

Long winded answer, I know, but Blairite looks to be good on the money, despite my curiosity about where he was able to subtract the split-county votes.   

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honest question... where are you getting your CD-04 EV numbers from?

Adding up all seven counties and subtracting out North Albany and Grants Pass/East Josephine based on relative population/partisanship. It's mildly pseudoscientific but I'm definitely not off by more than half a percent in either direction.

[Former President tack50]

As always, friendly reminder that early voting holds 0 predictive value whatsoever

I would rather trust jimmie's astrology based predictions than early voting indicators

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

As always, friendly reminder that early voting holds 0 predictive value whatsoever

I would rather trust jimmie's astrology based predictions than early voting indicators

As always, friendly reminder that Oregon is a 100% VBM state and is therefore a little different. You can get decent indicators when 3/4 of the vote is in like it is now.

[NOVA Green]

As always, friendly reminder that early voting holds 0 predictive value whatsoever

I would rather trust jimmie's astrology based predictions than early voting indicators

As always, friendly reminder that Oregon is a 100% VBM state and is therefore a little different. You can get decent indicators when 3/4 of the vote is in like it is now.

Senator tack50 to add to the response which Blairite made, I will add a few additional observations:

1.) There were 70,758 Registered Voters added to the rolls in the (7) Counties that consist of CD-04, most likely as a result of Oregon DMV Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) between the 2016 GE and the 2020 GE.

2.) We can do the subtraction math for Grants Pass (Josephine County) and a few relatively small precincts in Benton County and maybe it's closer to 67k additional Voters.

3.) Overall, New Voters added to the rolls will likely increase DEM RAW Vote Margins, despite potentially a "Republican Surge" in Douglas and Linn County.

4.) As I have previously stated multiple times, DeFazio will overperform Biden 2020 numbers, in a CD where HRC only beat Trump by +1 because of 3rd Party defection as well as lower voter turnout from the Socialist Left base communities who chose to stay home.

5.) I can buy a conceptual scene where somehow in 2022 this district might be competitive, but reality is that there are ton more NAVs in Lane County, not to mention overwhelmingly DEM TO enthusiasm gap in the oldest communities of the district, but please explain the math, since ultimately in one of the CD's in OR with the highest % of both Seniors and Veterans, (Not to mention a few College Towns) that these EV numbers are not extremely positive for DeFazio 2020 reelection?