Oregon 4th district will flip R

[Rover]

I don't know whether he could win or not, but I really like him as a person. His selfless sacrifice and courage with his buddies to stop a terror attack at a train in France was truly admirable. Men like him make me proud to be an American. I watched him a couple of times being interviewed, he was so humble and down to earth. 

Heroes: Anthony Sadler, Spencer Stone & Alek Skarlatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMvmXj5VsLs

Bravery and humility, their moms did a great job.

[WD]

lol he won’t win. Biden will do much better than Clinton, not to mention that Defazio will out preform him by several points. I expect Biden to win by 6-7 here and Defazio to win by 19-20 points.

[President Johnson]

Seems to be a good candidate, but I'm not sure this one is going to flip. It may be closer than publically expected though.

If elected, Alek Skarlatos would be second only to Senator Gary Peters with the sex appeal he radiates.

Moscow Mitch wants to have a word with you

[OBD]

Yeah, no. Skarlatos seems to be a (relatively) strong candidate, but DeFazio is entrenched and with Corvallis and Eugene in the district he won't lose (I expect Biden to win here by around 2-5 points). Not to mention NOVA Green's analysis earlier in the thread.

It does get interesting considering how things could play out in 2022 after redistricting. Skarlatos, being a Roseburg native, will almost certainly be drawn into the successor of the 4th district (the 2nd district will most likely not absorb Douglas County, and the new 6th pretty much cannot without violating the trans-Cascades COI or road connections), and thus would probably have to face DeFazio again in 2022. Given Democratic control of redistricting, it's unlikely that the new 4th goes below Clinton +1-2, so if Skarlatos was to win he'd have to bank on some combination of trends, a Republican wave, and/or DeFazio retiring. The only surefire path to him getting elected is in the unlikely event that he gets drawn into a newly-created Republican sink 6th District, and even then he'd face a competitive primary against career politicians.

Unless, of course, Oregon Dems decide to 1) break redistricting convention and push the 4th into Bend or 2) draw Roseburg into the 2nd District. Then Skarlatos's political career is just cooked.

[NOVA Green]

I think he loses, but there's a very good possibility that Oregon's new district will be Republican leaning and Alek Skarlatos can run there in 2022 (probably a republican wave)

So regarding the redistricting question, which many of you have noted.... haven't used the multi-quote function in awhile (if it still exists) so apologies....

There are a few interesting/good reads / threads which go into some details/perspectives on that topic.

MB created a thread on 8/15/19, which is well worth a read with contributions from many Atlas/ Talk Election posters of a wide variety of backgrounds and political flavors on the Political Geography & Demographics Board....

"OR-04: is DeFazio actually vulnerable?"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330790.msg6926562#msg6926562

Also, about half-way through the first page I linked to some various discussions of OR CD-04 which nclib started back in '17 " early look at gerrymanders in 2020", and there were various discussions about how to draw districts that comply with Oregon Revised Statute, which BRTD first raised and others chimed in on....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=268777.msg5743380#msg5743380

[NOVA Green]

I don't know whether he could win or not, but I really like him as a person. His selfless sacrifice and courage with his buddies to stop a terror attack at a train in France was truly admirable. Men like him make me proud to be an American. I watched him a couple of times being interviewed, he was so humble and down to earth. 

Heroes: Anthony Sadler, Spencer Stone & Alek Skarlatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMvmXj5VsLs

Bravery and humility, their moms did a great job.

Well tbf, Military Service is unlikely to hurt his chances in a part of Oregon, with one of the highest % of Veterans...

Douglas & Curry are practically the highest Counties in the State when it comes to the Vet Vote....

https://www.livestories.com/statistics/oregon/veteran-demographics

Still experience sometimes counts more than simply Military Service ( Defazio is actually Air Force Reserve)....

Ironically Skarlatos defeated an "African"-American Nelson Ijih,

https://www.eugeneweekly.com/2019/10/10/making-oregon-great-again/

whose resume looks a bit thicker and lives in Eugene, and quite possibly an individual who might have appealed better to the types of Upper-Middle Class voters in places like Lane & Benton County, which is precisely where a Republican would need to dent Defazio's numbers the most...

Here are their summaries within the Oregon Voter's guide sent to everyone's home address, which I read back to back before voting in the May 19, 2020 Primary.

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Alek%20Skarlatos

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Nelson%20Ijih

[Rover]

I don't know whether he could win or not, but I really like him as a person. His selfless sacrifice and courage with his buddies to stop a terror attack at a train in France was truly admirable. Men like him make me proud to be an American. I watched him a couple of times being interviewed, he was so humble and down to earth.  

Heroes: Anthony Sadler, Spencer Stone & Alek Skarlatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMvmXj5VsLs

Bravery and humility, their moms did a great job.

Well tbf, Military Service is unlikely to hurt his chances in a part of Oregon, with one of the highest % of Veterans...

Douglas & Curry are practically the highest Counties in the State when it comes to the Vet Vote....

https://www.livestories.com/statistics/oregon/veteran-demographics

Still experience sometimes counts more than simply Military Service ( Defazio is actually Air Force Reserve)....

Ironically Skarlatos defeated an "African"-American Nelson Ijih,

https://www.eugeneweekly.com/2019/10/10/making-oregon-great-again/

whose resume looks a bit thicker and lives in Eugene, and quite possibly an individual who might have appealed better to the types of Upper-Middle Class voters in places like Lane & Benton County, which is precisely where a Republican would need to dent Defazio's numbers the most...

Here are their summaries within the Oregon Voter's guide sent to everyone's home address, which I read back to back before voting in the May 19, 2020 Primary.

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Alek%20Skarlatos

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Nelson%20Ijih

Thank you for the links. I don't know much about oregon or the PNW, I have a good friend who lives in West seattle, I went to visit him a couple of years ago, we got to hike and surf along La push, WA. That area had a lot of native American communities. Does OR-04 have a significant native American population?
BTW, I have to say hats off to you Nova Green, your contributions are pure gold.

[InheritTheWind]

He's not winning this year but I could see this seat (or some variant of it post-redistricting) flipping in a Biden 2022 midterm

[Dr. MB]

He literally out preformed Hillary by 20 points in 2016. He is not going to lose to a no name, even if Trump squeezes out a win in this district

rude, he was on Dancing with the Stars he's not a no name

[SevenEleven]

Also, while being young may be appealing to some people, most people don't vote for someone based off of looks.

This isn't so true. Like most things in life, looks play an important role in elections.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't know whether he could win or not, but I really like him as a person. His selfless sacrifice and courage with his buddies to stop a terror attack at a train in France was truly admirable. Men like him make me proud to be an American. I watched him a couple of times being interviewed, he was so humble and down to earth.  

Heroes: Anthony Sadler, Spencer Stone & Alek Skarlatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMvmXj5VsLs

Bravery and humility, their moms did a great job.

Well tbf, Military Service is unlikely to hurt his chances in a part of Oregon, with one of the highest % of Veterans...

Douglas & Curry are practically the highest Counties in the State when it comes to the Vet Vote....

https://www.livestories.com/statistics/oregon/veteran-demographics

Still experience sometimes counts more than simply Military Service ( Defazio is actually Air Force Reserve)....

Ironically Skarlatos defeated an "African"-American Nelson Ijih,

https://www.eugeneweekly.com/2019/10/10/making-oregon-great-again/

whose resume looks a bit thicker and lives in Eugene, and quite possibly an individual who might have appealed better to the types of Upper-Middle Class voters in places like Lane & Benton County, which is precisely where a Republican would need to dent Defazio's numbers the most...

Here are their summaries within the Oregon Voter's guide sent to everyone's home address, which I read back to back before voting in the May 19, 2020 Primary.

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Alek%20Skarlatos

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Nelson%20Ijih

Thank you for the links. I don't know much about oregon or the PNW, I have a good friend who lives in West seattle, I went to visit him a couple of years ago, we got to hike and surf along La push, WA. That area had a lot of native American communities. Does OR-04 have a significant native American population?

Not really. It's very white with a small Latino population. WA has more Native Americans than OR and the big reservations are elsewhere in the state.

[NOVA Green]

I don't know whether he could win or not, but I really like him as a person. His selfless sacrifice and courage with his buddies to stop a terror attack at a train in France was truly admirable. Men like him make me proud to be an American. I watched him a couple of times being interviewed, he was so humble and down to earth.  

Heroes: Anthony Sadler, Spencer Stone & Alek Skarlatos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMvmXj5VsLs

Bravery and humility, their moms did a great job.

Well tbf, Military Service is unlikely to hurt his chances in a part of Oregon, with one of the highest % of Veterans...

Douglas & Curry are practically the highest Counties in the State when it comes to the Vet Vote....

https://www.livestories.com/statistics/oregon/veteran-demographics

Still experience sometimes counts more than simply Military Service ( Defazio is actually Air Force Reserve)....

Ironically Skarlatos defeated an "African"-American Nelson Ijih,

https://www.eugeneweekly.com/2019/10/10/making-oregon-great-again/

whose resume looks a bit thicker and lives in Eugene, and quite possibly an individual who might have appealed better to the types of Upper-Middle Class voters in places like Lane & Benton County, which is precisely where a Republican would need to dent Defazio's numbers the most...

Here are their summaries within the Oregon Voter's guide sent to everyone's home address, which I read back to back before voting in the May 19, 2020 Primary.

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Alek%20Skarlatos

http://oregonvotes.gov/voters-guide/english/votersguide.html#Nelson%20Ijih

Thank you for the links. I don't know much about oregon or the PNW, I have a good friend who lives in West seattle, I went to visit him a couple of years ago, we got to hike and surf along La push, WA. That area had a lot of native American communities. Does OR-04 have a significant native American population?

Not really. It's very white with a small Latino population. WA has more Native Americans than OR and the big reservations are elsewhere in the state.

So taking a breather on the CD-04 recent political history / election results for a moment...

Interestingly enough OR CD-04 was the last site of a major Armed Rebellion from 1st Nations against the European Colonizers....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogue_River_Wars

Essentially, the aftermath led to what was Oregon's equivalent of the "Trail of Tears"...

I have been Port Orford at the Site of Battle Rock (A Coast Guard Station now overlooks the Rock)
where back in 1851 there was a major battle.

https://www.historynet.com/quatomah-tututnis-at-battle-rock-faced-a-landing-party-of-armed-white-men.htm

We can look at some further events from the history of the Colonizers using historical documentation...


http://truwe.sohs.org/files/portorford2.html

We can also look at the 1851 Peace Treaty signed by the Colonizers with Native Leaders...

https://ndnhistoryresearch.com/2017/11/16/the-1851-treaty-commission-at-port-orford-the-ya-su-chah/

The story is extremely complicated, but it comes down to a bunch of White Settlers encroaching on Native Land as part of a whole "Gold Rush" scene and practicing "Ethnic Cleansing" techniques until finally the US Military ends up relocating the Natives....

So although we have a "Rogue River" in Southern Oregon, many places with local Native Names, the vast majority of Native Folks within the region either were either relocated under force to "new reservations", or ended up staying local and eventually marrying with some of the chiller settler populations that started to come to some of the remote Coastal Areas in the late 1890s/ early 1900s...

Bit of a simplistic reader digest story, and now I gotta look up statues for the colonizing aresholes and publish them on social media so that Antifa can drive down from Portland to tear them down....

(That was a complete and utter joke and intended for sarcasm and humor only and certainly would not support nor encourage any such actions. Anybody interested in relocating any such statues which may or may not exist, should work closely with their municipal, county, and State Government officials, as well as coordinating with local historical museums so that such statues can and will be preserved within their proper historical context).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Despite rock-bottom approvals among people under 30, the GOP certainly seems to have more under-30 candidates than the Democrats lately

[NOVA Green]

So I got distracted with the KY SEN PRIM and didn't get around to continuing some work I was doing here ...

1.) Part I attempted to provide a semi-comprehensive overview of the District, with a detailed focus on Lane County, which will likely account for roughly 50% of the 2020 GE Vote Share within the District. I attempted to use a SWOT (Strength Weakness Opportunity Threat) style narrative and tried to use objective precinct level analysis rather than simply my personal opinion.

2.) Part II will now attempt to present an overview of Benton County, which will likely account for somewhere around 9% of the 2020 Vote Share within the District.

This is basically Defazio's (and generally the Democrats 2nd major stronghold, which is primarily concentrated around the City of Corvallis home to Oregon State University, Major Regional Medical Centers, as well as Tech Sector stuff including a flagship Hewlett-Packard facility.



1.) Total Votes--- We see Benton County ranging from a low of 32k TVs in '14 to a high of 40k TVs in 2016.

2.) The drop-offs in "off-year" election votes are perhaps not surprising considering the extremely large college student age population, although certainly the 2018 numbers stand out.

3.) Although the overall population of the City has been growing, it is entirely possible that there might well be a decrease in the Student voting population in November 2020, with many students likely doing remote classes and not physically living/voting within Corvallis.

4.) Still overall you are looking at Defazio clearing Benton County with a bit over 15k Raw Vote Margin in '12 & '14, which exploded to 16.6k and then 18.0k in '16 and '18 respectively.

5.) Perhaps interestingly enough, Defazio margins in '14 and '16 came despite an extremely solid performance from Mike Beilstein (Pacific-Green) who has deep roots within the Community.

Now let's look at the % Vote by Partisan Affiliation for CD-04 from 2012 to 2018 within Benton County.



1.) We observe Defazio running in the 67-72% Range, with his Republican opponent gradually decreasing from 27.6% in '12 to 23.6% in '18.

2.) We also observe 3rd Party Candidates running around 6-7% in '14/16 and sliding down a bit to 4.3% in '18....

Many of these voters were Pacific-Green voters...

3.) Ideally Skarlatos would need to shave off Defazio RAW Vote margins, to at a minimum of +13k DEM in 2020

4.) I am a bit skeptical, but theoretically a decrease in OSU student votes, combined with swings elsewhere, might be able to achieve this goal.

5.) Naturally, we need to examine the '12 and '16 PUB PRES results to see where such opportunities might be available.

    A.) We would need to subtract precincts 11,12, 18 & 22 from the mix (OR CD-05), basically North Albany, some surrounding quasi rurals, Adair Village, and Lewisberg.



    B.)  2012: County---   Obama 27,776 (62.0%)    Romney- 14,991 (33.5%)  TV= 44,802
          2016: County---   HRC     29,193 (59.9%)    Trump-    13,445 (27.6%)  TV= 48,753

    C.) Let's remove the precincts mentioned (adjusted to reflect renumbering for a few of these) to see the '12 and '16 PRES Results within CD-04 in Benton...

      i.) 2012 CD-05---   Obama  2827                     Romney- 3363      TV= 6,390
     ii.) Subtracting CD-05 numbers out of Benton County in '12, looks more like PRES #s as follows withing the CD-04 part of the District:

Obama:    24,949  (65.0%)   Romney 11,628 (30.3%)     TV= 38,412

D.) So let's compare the RAW Vote in 2012 and 2016 for the Presidential Elections vs OR CD-04 Elections.



    i.)   So here we see DEM Presidential numbers consistently under-performing Defazio numbers.

   ii.) We also observe PUB PRES numbers under-performing in 2012 AND over-performing in 2016, despite the 2012 >2016 PUB REP numbers being relatively stagnent?

   iii.) We also observe a HUGE surge in 3rd Party Votes in 2016 both for US House and for US PRES.

E.) Now let's look at the same data from a % of Total Vote Graph.



    i.)  So here we so both Republican and Democratic CD-04 % fall for the Congressional Election, with DEM % falling further. We also see both Republican and Democratic PRES % numbers fall, although in this case Republican numbers falling much higher than DEM numbers.

  ii.) Again 3rd Party Votes appear to be a factor in both....

F.) The only way for Skarlatos to cut into Defazio RAW vote numbers significantly here, would be both increasing the % of Republican support to at least 30%, combined with a DECREASE in total Votes...

G.) Let's look at where this might happen within the CD-04 portion of Benton County...

Let's start with the largest Vote Bank.... the City of Corvallis:

2016 PRES: 28,204 TOT----(69.6% of the CD-04 section of Benton County)
2016 House: 27,156 TOT--- (67.5% of the CD-04 section of Benton County)
2018 House: 24,804 TOT--- (66.9% of the CD-04 section of Benton County)

So--- it is reasonable to assume that at minimum Corvallis will account for  65% of the Benton County CD-04 Vote Share in a Presidential Election Year, even assuming that there might be a lower student voting population come Fall Term because of COVID-19 and remote learning options, etc...

How did the City of Corvallis vote in 2016 and 2018?

2016 PRES:   Clinton--- 19,588   (69.5%)    Trump--- 5021  (17.8%)    Others-- 3,595 (12.7%)

*** Others include 2,056 Pacific-Green PRES Voters & Write-in Ballots (Presumably overwhelmingly Sanders) ***

2016 CD-04:   DeFazio-- 19,534 (71.9%), Robinson-- 5,542 (20.4%) Pacific-Green--- 1,582 (5.8%)

2018 CD-04:   DeFazio--- 19,468 (78.5%) Robinson--- 4,188  (16.9%)  Others--- 1,148  (4.6%)

    i.)  So let's start with the assumption that the dramatic drop-off in voter turnout between '16 and '18 within CD-04 elections in Corvallis was predominately caused by a significant decrease in student voters.

   ii.) Even so, Defazio was able to significantly increase his % vote margins between '16 and '18, which appears to be a direct result of 3rd Party Voters shifting his direction.

  iii.) The next obvious question is, to what extent were these permanent "Townies" vs Undergrad College students registered to vote in Benton County?

A. Let's roll the precinct RAW Vote numbers to test the theory...



Now let's look at the % of Vote Share by Precinct in the '16 PRES Election, '16 CD-04 Election, and '18 CD-04 Election...


 
Time to look at a precinct map the % of Vote Share by Precinct in the '16 PRES Election, '16 CD-04 Election, and '18 CD-04 Election...



    iv.) Let's look at the Median Household Income by Census Tract:



    v.) Let's look at the % of POP college aged (18-24)...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=24024


Ok--- looks like I ran out of bandwidth for one post.... next part to wrap up Benton County...

Next stop will be either an "Ancestral DEM County", or one of two "Republican Breadbaskets within CD-04"---- suggestions welcome once I wrap up Benton....

[Pollster]

Cook just moved this seat from Solid to Likely D.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Cook just moved this seat from Solid to Likely D.

Seriously? Why? It's not flipping.

[Gracile]

Cook just moved this seat from Solid to Likely D.

It was Sabato's Crystal Ball, actually.

Seriously? Why? It's not flipping.

Basically, their rationale is a combination of his opponent, federal trends becoming more apparent at the House level, and the lack of students on campus possibly leading to fewer Democratic voters-

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-democratic-murmurings-in-the-texas-suburbs-and-elsewhere/

Taking Porter’s place in the Likely Democratic column is Rep. Peter DeFazio (D, OR-4), a 17-term congressman who represents southwest Oregon. As our friends at Elections Daily recently pointed out, DeFazio’s district contains both of Oregon’s big college towns, Eugene (University of Oregon) and Corvallis (Oregon State University). If usually Democratic college turnout is down this year because of changes to academic calendars and in-person instruction, that could be felt particularly in a district like this.

DeFazio has won voteshares in the mid-to-high 50s in recent years, but Trump came within a few hundred votes of winning the district in 2016. After running against a perennial opponent from 2010 to 2018, DeFazio also has drawn an interesting new challenger: Alek Skarlatos (R), a former Army National Guard soldier who helped subdue a gunman on a Paris-bound train in 2015 (Skarlatos played himself in Clint Eastwood’s movie about the incident).

Though DeFazio’s profile as a progressive populist seems to play well in the district, he hasn’t been immune to federal trends. Coos County, a working-class coastal county that was usually friendly to him, flipped in 2016 and stayed Republican in 2018 There’s enough going on in this district to put it on the competitive board, although DeFazio is still well-positioned. OR-4, as well as Rep. Kurt Schrader’s (D) OR-5, are competitive districts on paper, but Republicans have not been able to mount particularly strong challenges to either in recent years. Oregon is poised to get a sixth district following the 2020 census, and Democrats may be hard-pressed to limit Republicans to just the single seat they hold now. Trump actually won the state outside of overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County (Portland), which casts only about a fifth of the statewide vote.

I have noticed that there seems to be some modest concern over the lack of students on campus leading to more Republican-leaning results in college towns and I feel like it's worth noting that students (specifically undergraduate students) already made up a much lower share of the vote in these places than the CW would lead you to believe. Prior to COVID, many undergraduate students were registered and voted from where their parents live. College enclaves are also dominated by university faculty, administrative staff, graduate students (who are more likely to live in the area year-round because of their work/research commitments), and settled alumni who likely turn out at higher rates than undergraduates, to begin with. I think the effects of COVID shutting down campuses will only be marginal.

[Roronoa D. Law]

After reading some of these comments I'm going to need some you guys to come out that closet.

[NOVA Green]

Cook just moved this seat from Solid to Likely D.

It was Sabato's Crystal Ball, actually.

Seriously? Why? It's not flipping.

Basically, their rationale is a combination of his opponent, federal trends becoming more apparent at the House level, and the lack of students on campus possibly leading to fewer Democratic voters-

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-house-democratic-murmurings-in-the-texas-suburbs-and-elsewhere/

Taking Porter’s place in the Likely Democratic column is Rep. Peter DeFazio (D, OR-4), a 17-term congressman who represents southwest Oregon. As our friends at Elections Daily recently pointed out, DeFazio’s district contains both of Oregon’s big college towns, Eugene (University of Oregon) and Corvallis (Oregon State University). If usually Democratic college turnout is down this year because of changes to academic calendars and in-person instruction, that could be felt particularly in a district like this.

DeFazio has won voteshares in the mid-to-high 50s in recent years, but Trump came within a few hundred votes of winning the district in 2016. After running against a perennial opponent from 2010 to 2018, DeFazio also has drawn an interesting new challenger: Alek Skarlatos (R), a former Army National Guard soldier who helped subdue a gunman on a Paris-bound train in 2015 (Skarlatos played himself in Clint Eastwood’s movie about the incident).

Though DeFazio’s profile as a progressive populist seems to play well in the district, he hasn’t been immune to federal trends. Coos County, a working-class coastal county that was usually friendly to him, flipped in 2016 and stayed Republican in 2018 There’s enough going on in this district to put it on the competitive board, although DeFazio is still well-positioned. OR-4, as well as Rep. Kurt Schrader’s (D) OR-5, are competitive districts on paper, but Republicans have not been able to mount particularly strong challenges to either in recent years. Oregon is poised to get a sixth district following the 2020 census, and Democrats may be hard-pressed to limit Republicans to just the single seat they hold now. Trump actually won the state outside of overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County (Portland), which casts only about a fifth of the statewide vote.

I have noticed that there seems to be some modest concern over the lack of students on campus leading to more Republican-leaning results in college towns and I feel like it's worth noting that students (specifically undergraduate students) already made up a much lower share of the vote in these places than the CW would lead you to believe. Prior to COVID, many undergraduate students were registered and voted from where their parents live. College enclaves are also dominated by university faculty, administrative staff, graduate students (who are more likely to live in the area year-round because of their work/research commitments), and settled alumni who likely turn out at higher rates than undergraduates, to begin with. I think the effects of COVID shutting down campuses will only be marginal.

I tend to generally agree with this perspective, but still thought it worthy of mentioning in my posts on both Lane and Benton Counties, since naturally I am quite familiar with both Eugene and Corvallis over many years and as a current resident of CD-04, so obviously Sabato's Crystal Ball must be reading my posts...

Let's take a bit of a side trip to look at student enrollment data available for both Oregon State University (Corvallis) and University of Oregon (Eugene) for those not especially familiar with the region....

Oregon State University:

1.) Oregon State had a total student enrollment of 32,774 students at the start of Fall Term 2020.

https://today.oregonstate.edu/news/oregon-state-enrollment-grows-online-and-bend-campus

2.) This includes online learning (which expanded dramatically pre-COVID) as well as a satellite campus in Bend (CD-02).

3.) Oregon State's official website lists 24,203 students physically based in the Corvallis Campus, which would obviously include Grad Students , International Students, and Out-of-State Students.

4.) Oregon State continues to be a school of choice among Oregon residents with 13,605 students, or 71.4%, of the Corvallis campus degree-seeking undergraduate enrollment coming from the state. That includes students from all 36 Oregon counties.

5.) Here is how OSU is treating Fall 2020 enrollment as a result of COVID-19

https://admissions.oregonstate.edu/covid-19-frequently-asked-questions-faq

"The 50-student cutoff is a current estimate and will remain fluid, and will not automatically apply to every course.  But the net effect of this is about half of all sections at OSU will be remote in the fall.
Class sections delivered in-person will, whenever possible accommodate learners who need a remote option; remote learning technology is being installed in all classrooms in Corvallis and Bend to accommodate this approach."

6.) This would appear to predominately impact students taking 100 and 200 level courses for the most part, so essentially mainly Freshmen or possibly some Sophomores as well, since most 300 and 400 level courses are likely to have maybe only 30-40 students max.

7.) Corvallis- High Cost of Living

So here's an area where possibly see parents of Freshmen or even Sophomore students questioning the cost of campus / off-campus housing if a "remote learning option" is available, especially since the parent's of many of these students might already be experiencing financial distress as a result of COVID-19 related finances.

Why would parents want to fork over $1200-$1400/Month rent for a tiny 1-Bdrm close to campus (possibly cheaper for 2-3  bedroom apts & roomies, so that there 18-19 year old kids can party irresponsibly in the era of COVID?   

Okay a bit facetious, but could see a potential impact there.

8.) So there was a massive amount of outside property investors that moved into Corvallis sometime between 2015 until recently, which literally jacked up rental prices, demolished virtual City Blocks to create a "warehousing of housing for students".

In theory, one way of potentially testing the concept, would be to look at current apartment rental prices within the City of Corvallis.

https://www.apartments.com/corvallis-or/

It doesn't appear that we are seeing a major softening of the market YET, because either the greedy Capitalist Real Estate investors want to maintain their investment profit margins, AND/OR they don't have a clue and possibly waiting to hold off rent reductions until they see what the market will look like going into Winter Term.

Honestly in over-priced College Town markets like this with shortages of affordable housing, many of these apartment property owning companies would likely rather hope and wait a few Months to lower rents until they realize they won't be able to lock in College Students on 1 Yr Leases at extremely high profit margins.

9.) Oregon AvR and county voting residency.

So here's something that I'm wrestling with a bit. In theory Oregon Law requires you update your Driver's License every time you move to a new address.

I'm not sure getting pulled over by a cop in Corvallis will get you off the hook with a non-updated residency address (Might get a warning the first time), including an out-of state Driver's License...

But yeah driving around Corvallis with California tags will def increase your chance of getting pulled over, especially on a Weekend Night once Football Season kicks in...

So every transaction with the DMV basically involves an automatic voter registration unless you choose to "opt out", so ballot will go to whatever your data on file is with the DMV.

10.) So basically with all of that, I'm having a hard time seeing how without some sort of improvement in Republican messaging from Skarlatos in a Presidential Election Year in a College Town where he is able to distinguish himself from the "Trump Brand", that we would see any more than a 3k decrease in Defazio raw vote numbers from Benton County, without significant shifts elsewhere other than the City of Corvallis.

11.) I lied.... not going to go into the University of Oregon academic program yet after typing all this out, but it's a smaller University and a much lower % of the Pop of Lane County than of Benton County....

Apologies for the "Wall of Text" y'all....but although it might seem a bit stream of consciousness, it's actually just something I've been trying to wrap my brain around locally as a dispatcher "from the Heart of a potential Trump '20 flip district on the US-House side"

Anyways--- just some musings on the concept of student voting within CD-04 in the era of COVID....

[NOVA Green]

So--- I want to try to wrap up Benton County, in order to move on elsewhere--- but was not able to complete Yesterday because I hit the text / image block for a single post.

1.) Part I attempted to provide a semi-comprehensive overview of the District, with a detailed focus on Lane County, which will likely account for roughly 50% of the 2020 GE Vote Share within the District.

2.) Part II attempted to present an overview of Benton County, which will likely account for somewhere around 9% of the 2020 Vote Share within the District, although I was not able to get into major detail outside of the City of Corvallis.

To Summarize:

      A.) It is possible that there might be a NET decrease in Total Votes in Corvallis as a result of decreased undergrad student populations.

     B.) Even if we assume that there might be a NET decrease in Total Votes in Corvallis, it appears that this drop-off occurred it was within precincts with higher % of undergrad students.

   C.) This did not appear to significantly impact overall Defazio raw vote margins, possibly because of a return of 3rd Party Voters from '16 > '18.

   D.) I would not be surprised to see Corvallis representing only 65-67% of the CD-04 County Vote Share in 2020 (Despite being a Presidential Election Year).

  E.) Here is an image of "College Aged Voters by Census Tract" which got cut-off on my previous post:



3.) Part III will now attempt to finalize Benton County, including precincts outside of the City of Corvallis.

A.) Corvallis- Let's look at a Map % of support by Political Party (DEM-PUB-OTHER) by Precinct including '16 PRES, '16 House, and '18 House Results.



1.) Despite a significant decrease within precincts with extremely high levels of College Aged Voters between '16 and '18 this appears not to have contributed to a drop in RAW Vote margins for Defazio within Corvallis between '16 and '18.

     A.) Precinct #4- Is located pretty much entirely within the Campus of Oregon State University (Dorms, plus some Grad/ Family student housing.

B.) Precincts with extremely low level of Student Populations, such as Precinct #8 swung +8% towards DeFazio between '16 & '18, which is the wealthiest Census tract within the City.

C.) Precinct #7 is interesting in this regard, in that on the one hand it has tons of Educated Professionals (Professors, Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers, etc) but also has an extremely highly populated apartment housing complex off of Witham Hill, which theoretically are places where College Students might reside (again a +8% Defazio swing).....

D.) Precinct #1 which is SW Corvallis and includes a significant chunk of pricey real estate by the Country Club, not to mention scores of 400k+ Houses, tells a similar story with a +8% DeFazio swing from '16 > '18.

E.) So yeah--- we'll see what happens with the "student vote", but it appears that there were major swings against the PUB House Candidate between '16>'18 in some of the wealthier and more educated precincts in the City....

OKAY--- Anybody ready for the "Rural Vote" in Benton County?

Let's look at Total Votes in the 2016 and 2018 Elections:



Theoretically, one would imagine 2020 GE Turnout will be close to 2016 numbers, possibly slightly lower, although the Undergrad student population is fairly minimal in most of these precincts.

So let's look at the consolidated "rural" votes by Party:



So in theory it looks like there might be room for Skarlatos to improve over Robinson, but as I noted previously the OTHER PRES votes appear to have broken a bit heavily for Defazio in '16, so naturally this raises questions as to how many Trump > Defazio '16 votes were out there.

Looking at the 2018 CD-04 results, it appears possible that turnout among Republicans and Republican Leaners might have played a bigger factor than Robinson '16 voters flipping to Defazio in '18.

Still, the devil is always in the details, so let's take a deeper dive into these precincts...



So, not all precincts are created equal, so let's just use the 2016 PRES TOT numbers as a baseline to measure the vote share by "rural" precincts in CD-04...



Let's also take a look at Median House-hold income by census tract before I go into too much detail...



So okay--- we've got a pretty good grab bag of data here to work off of, so let's start going down the list a bit starting with the largest vote banks:

1.) Precinct # 16: Corvallis Rural-  (21.4% of CD-04 "Rurals" in Benton County in the '16 PRES.)

This precinct is essentially located within the Urban Growth Boundary of Corvallis, meaning that although it is outside of City limits, it is easier to build housing compliant with Oregon Land Use planning laws, and extensive review and approval processes with County commissions, etc...

There was basically no drop-off in raw votes between the '16 PRES TOT and '16 House TOT and only a relatively miniscule drop-off in votes between '16 House and '18 House (~200 Votes).

As we can see this is one of the wealthiest places in Benton County in terms of Household income.

Basically in '16 the 3rd Party PRES vote split roughly 50-50 for the US House race.

In 2018 there was a +7% swing towards Defazio, likely as a direct rejection of Trumpism, as we have seen with similar demographics elsewhere within the US.

It is doubtful in my mind that Skarlatos will be able to make any significant inroads here with Trump on the ballot in 2020.

2.) Precinct #10 Philomath-   (18.4% of CD-04 "Rurals" in Benton County in the '16 PRES.)

As anyone who has been following many of my various Oregon posts, this is an interesting City, which on the one hand has historically had a strong ties to the Forest Products Industry, which has gone through significant "boom-bust" cycles tied to a Timber based economy, and more recently has started to become a bit of a "bedroom community" for working-class and middle-class folks who work in Corvallis, but can't afford the high cost of housing.

Looking at the '16 PRES and '16 House numbers, there was roughly a 10% drop-off in TVs, but interestingly enough only about (100) level Total Votes in the '18 House Race compared to '16.

Between the '16 PRES and '16 House race, it appears that almost all of the 3rd Party PRES Voters were captured by Defazio, with PUB % stagnant at 35/36%.

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here, do not appear to suggest "good news" for Skarlatos, although it is plausible that there might have been a significant increase in student voters with a large apartment complex that completed it's 1st wave of construction shortly before the 2018 GE.

3.) Precinct #15- NW Benton County- (17.7% of CD-04 "Rurals" in Benton County in the '16 PRES.)

Whew--- okay now we are actually getting to a proper rural precinct!  (*NOVA GREEN claps hands and gets excited!*)

So we are looking at most likely the largest precinct in Benton County in terms of land mass. We don't have anything approximating Towns around there, but instead smaller rural unincorporated communities where it might well take 15-20 Minutes (or longer) to get down the gravel roads to make it to a paved road to hit a small local independent mini-mart store just to buy beer or smokes, let alone some hot plate food if you're craving something not home cooked.

Anybody whose been watching some of my Oregon posts is likely now familiar with the term of "Hippy-Redneck" hybrid culture throughout many parts of the State, which actually is not uncommon from North Coast California up to Washington.

To regurgitate a joke I heard at an outdoor BBQ I was invited to somewhere around southern Humboldt County / Northern Mendocino County back in the early '90s with a Redwood Summer activist and a 3rd generation logger:

"This is the type of place where the Hippies own guns and the loggers grow weed"

Punchline to the effect: "Hippies grow better weed and the loggers are better shooters"

Many folks out there bought houses as a direct result of illicit outdoor marijuana cultivation at a time where the rural Oregon economy based on Timber had effectively collapsed between the late '70s and into the early '90s.

So here we see some striking results (60-28 HRC>Trump) turns into only (55-42 DeFazio) in 2016!

This would be the equivalent of a +19% Republican swing towards the CD-04 candidate!

We can't explain this on the basis of turnout levels, especially considering that Defazio lost 5% above HRC's numbers...

Even looking at the 2018 CD-04 results the numbers match 2016 CD-04 numbers....

*** Places like this are obviously potential opportunities for Skarlatos to expand over Robinson's numbers ***

Now, what could be driving that?   

My personal suspicion is that DeFazio might be vulnerable on policies regarding logging on private land, which for many folks that buy rural property is a long-term asset to eventually be liquidated in stages....

4.) Precinct # 20: Monroe Rural- (10.8% of CD-04 "Rurals" in Benton County in the '16 PRES.)

So again an interesting mix---- Here you have some extremely historically heavily Republican farmers along the flats by the Willamette River on the Eastside of the precinct....

Moving closer to Alpine, you got a bit more of the "Hippy-Redneck" mix....

Tons of Christmas Tree farms floating around as you move further West towards the Foothills of the Coast Range...

HRC was obviously not particularly popular around here (+21% Trump), and additionally Defazio % numbers decrease from 2016 (47-49) +2% R to 2018 (43-53) +10% R.

It appears that Skarlatos has room to expand here beyond Robinson numbers even in a 2020 GE environment with Trump on the ballot.

5.) So mostly done here. Instead of going through detailed analysis of the remaining "rural" CD-04 precincts.

    A.) Pct- 17 is essentially very similar to pct # 16--- so if wealthy and college educated professionals decide to jump on the Skarlatos train. Personally call me skeptical this will happen in the Trump era.

    B.) Pct-19 theoretically might have some room to grow for Skarlatos, but not really seeing it based upon the '16 PRES > '16 REP numbers, nor the '18 House numbers either.

But sure, if DeFazio pissed off Christmas tree farmers in Oregon, could seeing him taking some licks here...

   C.) Other than that not really tons of votes out there in rural Benton County in CD-04....

I guess one could make an argument that Pct # 14 has significant room to grow for Skarlatos, considering how Robinson significantly under-performed Trump '16...

Still, even there it only represents 4% of "rural" Benton County CD-04 so if anything would only move a few votes on the margins within this portion of Benton County.

So.... just a brief summary of "Rural" Benton County and potential opportunities for Skarlatos to reduce DeFazio raw margins.

Any suggestions for the next county to cover?

No suggestions will just rock to my own funky beet....




 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd be curious to see some analysis of my Linn County homeland.

[NOVA Green]

I'd be curious to see some analysis of my Linn County homeland.

As you wish...    

Pretty sure I have precinct level results for Linn County for '16 & '18 floating around in my collection, not to mention prior election results.

I seem to recall some issues with obtaining precinct level maps without paying $$$, so might need to get creative on that front.

Very familiar with Linn County, and obviously this is place where DeFazio might be vulnerable and was up to 14.8% of District Vote Share in '18, so I guess this is my next project...

[NOVA Green]

To recap:

1.) Part I attempted to provide a semi-comprehensive overview of the District, with a detailed focus on Lane County, which will likely account for roughly 50% of the 2020 GE Vote Share within the District.

2.) Part II attempted to present an overview of Benton County, which will likely account for somewhere around 9% of the 2020 Vote Share within the District, although I was not able to get into major detail outside of the City of Corvallis.

3.) Part III wrapped up Corvallis as well as rural parts of Benton County.

To Summarize: An objective assessment would appear to represent fairly limited opportunities for Skarlatos to significantly eat into Defazio's overwhelming margins in most parts of Lane and Benton Counties.

There are some potential opportunities to eat into Defazio's raw vote margins somewhat around the edges, possibly as a result of decreased in-person undergraduate populations in Corvallis & Eugene, maybe increasing CD-04 Republican vote share in places like East Springfield, Cottage Grove, Florence, Oakridge, Junction City, and a few mixed rural precincts in Lane and Benton Counties.

Part IV: Linn County (14.6%) of 2018 CD-04 Vote Share

County Overview--- attempting to briefly explain Linn County is a bit out of scope for this thread, and additionally, I would hate to have to rewrite some previous observations I made on the 2016 OR GE PRES thread, which I believe was a three part summary...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5498005#msg5498005

Naturally this is a county where one might expect Skarlatos to out-perform Robinson, plus take a bit of a dent among Defazio > Trump voters.

Let's just start with the 2012 > 2018 CD-04 results in terms of RAW Vote Margins,,,



1.) We see Dafazio negative raw vote margins virtually double every election between '12 and '18.

One could possibly make an argument that 3rd Party Voters might have played a factor in '14 and '16, but 2018 definitely shows how long Linn County has been moving against Defazio.

2.) Let's look at the same data, but with raw % vote numbers...



     A.) Naturally the raw votes and % numbers tell a story about a County which appears to be increasingly slipping away from Defazio, and increasingly supported Art Robinson, regardless of election cycles....

3.) Let's compare the 2012 and 2016 PRES numbers vs the CD-04 numbers (Raw Votes)...



A.) Trump won Linn County by a +15k margin in '16, and Robinson only won with a +5k margin.

It appears that quite possibly part of the gap might have been 3rd Party defections from Greens and Sanders Write-in Voters, but obviously the gap is much larger than that.

B.) Naturally if Skarlatos (or any PUB candidate for CD-04) were to win Linn County by a +15k Raw Vote Margin, that could easily present bad news for DeFazio, especially considering many similar parts of the district might be chasing the same dawg....

Still Linn County is not just a one or two Dimensional kinda county....

Largest Memorial Day Procession West of the Mississippi River....

Flag Day covers the streets of Downtown Albany bcs of donations from the VFW and other local organizations....

Next stop taking a look at the largest city (Albany) within the County.



.

[Figueira]

Imagine being named "Alek" when your last name starts with S.

[NOVA Green]

Part V: Linn County 2.0--- Albany Oregon.

Albany represented about 34.6% of the Linn County Vote Share in the 2016 Presidential Election, 34.5% of the '16 CD-04 Election and 34.2% in the 2018 CD-04 Election.

At a Presidential Level, the Linn County portion of the City tends to have a slight R hue, but as Obama's performance in '08 and '12 demonstrates, it is a place which democrats are capable of winning under the right conditions.

Albany Oregon Presidential Election Results '92-16 (Linn County Only)

1992: (37D-35R- 29 Perot)     +4 D
2008: (49- 47D)                     +2 D
2012: (47-49 R)                     +2 R
2016: (39- 47R)                     +8 R       (5% Write-Ins (Bernie?), 7% Libertarian, 3% Green)

I am including the 1992 numbers, as well simply because that is an extremely high level of support of Perot (Even by Oregon standards), and perhaps speaks a bit the history of Albany as being a place (even today) with a high level of the workforce in Production or Mfg related occupations and sectors.

Even the 2016 Presidential numbers were not particularly impressive for Trump, with the collapse of support for HRC being perhaps the more interesting take-away.

Okay--- enough ramblings--- it's Atlas / TE and I'm sure there might be a few folks out there interested in looking at some numbers not previously published / easily accessible elsewhere....

Albany, Oregon 2012 > 2018 Raw Vote Numbers (Incl '12 PRES and '16 PRES).



Here's another way of looking at the same data...



So--- what do these raw vote numbers tell us?

1.) Defazio has consistently out-performed Democratic Presidential numbers within Albany, with what is clearly a significant number of Romney '12 and Trump '16 voters within the City.

2.) Even accounting for 3rd Party Votes in 2016 at the Presidential Level, there was clearly a number of folks who went DEM for CD-04, while supporting the Republican Presidential Flag Bearer....

3.) Although Albany's overall County vote share slipped a slight notch between '16 and '18, generally the number of votes in the 2018 CD-04 election were significantly higher than in 2014, suggesting that 2020 GE turnout will continue to be high.

4.) Defazio maintaining a minimum of his 2018 raw vote margin in Albany, might well be pivotal against a candidate in Skarlatos with arguably much less baggage than Robinson...

5.) The Total Vote numbers represent what is actually a fast growing City (1.4% Pop Growth/Yr.) and is now the 12th largest City in Oregon, and although part of the fastest growing area of the city is actually located in Benton County, but CD-05).

Summary Aside, let's take a look at the same data, but in terms of % of the vote by office/yr.



1.) So Defazio has basically hit roughly around 51-52% of the Vote from '14 to '18 (Although a bit lower than his 55% in '12.

2.) Robinson basically hit 43-44% of the vote from '14 to '18.

3.) Third Party Votes from '14 to '18 obviously created a bit of stretch around the margins, especially in 2016, where the Libertarian Candidate for CD-04 significantly outperformed the Pacific Green Candidate.

4.) Still overall it does not appear that 3rd Party Votes towards the Greens hurt Defazio in Albany, the same way as it did in Corvallis & Eugene.

5.) Assuming that TV turnout in Albany in 2020 will equal or exceed 2016, Skarlatos would have to ensure that he can win over the Romney/Trump > Defazio voters in a national environment where currently I would not be surprised if Biden wins Albany by greater than Obama '08 margins.

Enough pontificating--- Let's take a look at the precinct maps if nobody objects?

Lets start with the vote share by precinct- (2016 GE PRES Baseline)....

Albany, Oregon even on the Linn County side of the Linn has way to many precincts, but sigh, I guess that's something that I complain about sometimes when it comes to the loss of granularity....

So here is the % of Vote Share for the (23) precincts over the Linn County Line across the Willamette River....



So, just to get an idea of how successful DeFazio has been in Albany, let's just start with % of precincts won from 2012 to 2018:

2012: (20/23 Precincts)
2014: (21/23 Precincts)
2016: (20/23 Precincts)
2018: (19/23 Precincts)

This doesn't tell the full story, however---

Let's start with a wall of Excel of 2012>2018 US House % plus 2012 and 2016 by precinct.

Here is a a screenshot of an Excel Table by Albany Precinct % of Votes from 2012 to 2018, including PRES results from '12 and '16.



Anybody's eyes hurting yet?

Good!!!

--- now NOVA figures it's time to look at a map of the 2018 CD-04 House Race by Precinct in the 2018 General Election.



1.) So essentially we seeing a Defazio baseline number by precinct in an off-year election assuming everything is stagnant in 2020.

2.) How does the map look in the 2016 Presidential Election by Precinct?



VERY DIFFERENT MAP!!!

Check out all of those 3rd Party Votes....

We will get back to that shortly (maybe on the next installment)

Another Precinct Map: % Change of PUB TOTAL Vote from 2016 > 2018



In theory looks bad for Defazio and goof for another Republican post Robinson '18...

But was thinking about it looking at the numbers and I thought well what was the change in vote by precinct in terms of Total Votes (TV) as % of CD-04 House '16 vs CD-04 House '18.



If Albany OR (#12 POP) swings hard, Medford (#8) will likely do even more so...

Keizer--- CD-05 (#15) gone... gone...

If, as is likely to happen Grants Pass might be the largest city in OR that Trump wins....