I think this is fine. But Minnesota is def not that blue.
Trump is favored in the Iron Range according to polling. But he does MUCH worse in Minneapolis suburbia and southern Minnesota. Should win by 5-6ish.
Nobody who thinks Minnesota will be close has given a reasonable explanation as to why.
Um, I have like five times.
You guys just chose to ignore any analysis that does not have the Democrats winning by massive margins in the midwest (despite polling tell you its close).
I've been one of the most vocal in disputing the "massive margins" argument red avatars are pushing. But your Tossup Minnesota is equally unrealistic.
Saying the Iron Range vote will trend the state Republican makes no sense because the reason for the change in rural margins is because they are depopulating--people are moving to more urban areas, and are trending them further left in the process. That's not going to change the state's vote as a whole.
(1) Minnesota IS A tossup state (voted slightly to the right of the nation). It's just the national margin is so large for Biden that it doesn't matter. It's like if Obama won by 15 in 08 and won Ohio by 8-10. Ohio is still a toss then. Just the national margin has shifted
If the national margin is so large that it doesn't matter, it's not a tossup.
In any case, a lot of this margin is being built in places in which shifts have less relevance to the electoral tipping point as we should know from the difference between the 2012 and 2016 maps. This kind of blowout isn't normal - perhaps it might be a new normal, but I'll believe that when I see it.
