2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

 GOP wins it

 Trump won it by 27k in 2016, Romney by 15k in 2012.

[GP270watch]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Wouldn't this just increase the Democrats' lead since they tend to vote after work and Republicans vote before?

 Not if Trump is appealing to the white working class to carry him through.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

Tick tock

 If Biden only has Clinton '16 type lead than Trump has already erased it.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

 
Tick tock

 If Biden only has Clinton '16 type lead than Trump has already erased it.

Didn’t he have like 600k more Republicans coming out that day?

Clinton had 96k Party ID lead and 247k actual vote lead and Trump won by 113k.

 Biden had a 113k Party ID lead we don't know what his actual vote lead was, but Republcians are leading by Party ID by 173,200(3:30PM) so we've seen a 286k swing.

[GP270watch]

Sumter FL

https://enr.electionsfl.org/SUM/Summary/2767/

Not all vote in

Trump 66.31%  55,424
Biden  33.20%  27,751

2016

Trump 68.78%     52,730
Clinto  29.53%     22,638   

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/bdquinn/status/1323779691241754625

 Some of these counties have grown rapidly though so that alone doesn't tell us anything until we see election day vote.

[GP270watch]

 One thing is starting to look clear, third party killed Hillary. Even when Trump is getting similar percentages Biden is up 2-5%.

 But not in Florida.

[GP270watch]

Miami-Dade number killed Biden in Florida.

 Damn, Trump is going to win Florida if that's not an error.

[GP270watch]

 Well the polling error so far favors Trump.

[GP270watch]

Blue Texas was a dream that's gonna have to wait until 2024.

With Florida and Texas gone, not feeling great about Arizona.

Trump has kept much of his base and Biden is doing crappier than Clinton in some places that matter.

[GP270watch]

Is Texas done for Biden?

Looks like it, didn't build big enough vote lead where he needed and heavily Hispanic counties are underperforming Clinton so far.

[GP270watch]

New Mexico called for Biden by NY Times.

[GP270watch]

Lotta of bad trends for Biden in many states: his early vote is not holding up to the election day vote, soft Latino support vs. Clinton, and Trump holding or exceeding a lot of his base with WWC, seniors, and rural voters.

[GP270watch]

Regardless of whether Biden ekes it out, I hope we can stop with "muh electability" in the 2024 primary. This is far too close for comfort for a candidate who was supposed to be the safe choice. People need someone to vote for.

At no point in this cycle did he inspire. And it's clear as VP Harris added nothing of value.

[GP270watch]

Cory Gardner is gone.

[GP270watch]

Hidalgo County, Texas

Biden: 59%
Trump: 40%

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 28%


Uhhh, is anyone else concerned by like the 20% swing to Trump in like exclusively Mexican-American counties?

I mean this is like Bush in 2004 levels amongst hispanics. Regardless of who wins, this is going to be the story of the night.

He literally staked his political career on hispanics being evil and they vote for him.  Don't get it.

 There are a lot of white Hispanics, Obama/Biden deported a lot of people(more than Trump). A lot of Mexican-Americans think Trump is all talk.

[GP270watch]

North Carolina looks like recount territory.

[GP270watch]

what was obama able to do in fl that biden and clinton weren't?

Turn out black voters, democratic Latino voters, young voters, and be popular enough with suburbanites.

[GP270watch]

Does a Biden Presidency and a GOP Senate mean no stimulus checks?

Yeah. Mitch is not going to do any big bills for President Biden.

 If Trump wins Dem House/Trump might be able to do something. And we'll have a conservative Supreme Court and federal judiciary for most of the rest of our lifetime.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323863787825438720?s=20

Before the Poles are closed?
Poles???

  The Earth is doomed, Trump's closing the poles...

[GP270watch]

Anything that gets to a recount were Biden is currently down is good for Biden.

[GP270watch]

It sucks for the American public that the two most teflon politicians are Trump and Mitch. Democrats talking about this person or that person is wrong for us still don't get it. We can get the best person like an Obama and the rightwing talk machine will immediately start slandering that person and dehumanizing them until they're nothing but an evil caricature.

[GP270watch]

 Atlas was mocking Ralston for saying Nevada would matter.

 Ralston was right.

[GP270watch]

Possible complications in GA:

https://twitter.com/GilForGeorgia/status/1324018963999821824?s=20

Are these included in the "outstanding vote to count" stats or are they in addition to it?  The former and Trump wins, the latter and Biden is almost a sure thing.  

 Also why are these people not contacted by the elections office? Why would voters assume that their ballot is invalid. This is so undemocratic, everybody who casted a vote should be met with the same effort to count their vote.

[GP270watch]

Is Biden going to win PA?