Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

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Wow. That Kishinev madman actually did it. Amazing.

Definitely supporting Yisrael Beiteinu this time around.

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#hottakeprediction: the right-wing majority after the September election will depend on Bennett, who'll pull the plug out of spite like Lieberman did

On a different note, hopefully Feiglin and Bennett/Shaked will be able to negotiate a joint list that makes it into the Knesset; they seem like better representatives of the Israeli right-of-Likud tendency than Peretz and Smotrich. Still personally rooting for Lieberman.

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It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

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It appears there are only two parties I am remotely close to:

79% Yisrael Beiteinu
75% Blue and White
30% Otzma (?!)

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The City data posted earlier, but arranged by party:

Snip

Do you have data for Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion?

Ma'ale Adumim: Likud 49, Yamina 14, Blue and White 12, YB 7, Shas 7, Otzma 5, Labor 3, UTJ 2, Democratic Camp 1

Gush Etzion consists of a bunch of tiny municipalities. These largely have Yamina in the 60s-70s, Likud in the 10s-20s, and others irrelevant, except for the largest municipality in Gush Etzion, Betar Illit, which is a Haredi enclave that voted 65 UTJ, 28 Shas, with all others under 5.

[Vosem]

Has any county ever had 3 elections in a row? Moldova? There can't be more, can there?

Ireland 1981/1981/1982, at least. Probably there are more examples.

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Can Sa'ar, or anyone else, actually beat Bibi or is this some kind of weird posturing? It's hard to see what he might want apart from the actual Likud leadership (since his bloc is strong enough that he could simply hand leadership of the country to Gantz if he felt like it), but this naively feels like a bad way to go about getting it.