Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Likud reportedly agree to rotation as long as Bibi's first, also agree to parity in government between B&W and their entire bloc combined.

Some are floating around the idea to change the basic law so no confidence in a rotation government would require 80 votes.

Rivlin is looking to procrastinate with giving the mandate till next week hoping the unity talks yield something.

Disappointed by Rivlin and I think that eventually Gantz will fold. sad

[Oryxslayer]

Likud reportedly agree to rotation as long as Bibi's first, also agree to parity in government between B&W and their entire bloc combined.

Some are floating around the idea to change the basic law so no confidence in a rotation government would require 80 votes.

Rivlin is looking to procrastinate with giving the mandate till next week hoping the unity talks yield something.

Disappointed by Rivlin and I think that eventually Gantz will fold. sad

This is the deal breaker which is why I suspect this is all more  Kabuki, right? B&W won't sit with the haredim. Likud's just trying to pull in the entire blocks so as to outnumber gantz...which really doesn't make sense politically. having a 80+ seat govt with 6 parties minimum (+whatever from former Yamina) would just be chaotic at best.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud reportedly agree to rotation as long as Bibi's first, also agree to parity in government between B&W and their entire bloc combined.

Some are floating around the idea to change the basic law so no confidence in a rotation government would require 80 votes.

Rivlin is looking to procrastinate with giving the mandate till next week hoping the unity talks yield something.

Disappointed by Rivlin and I think that eventually Gantz will fold. sad

This is the deal breaker which is why I suspect this is all more  Kabuki, right? B&W won't sit with the haredim. Likud's just trying to pull in the entire blocks so as to outnumber gantz...which really doesn't make sense politically. having a 80+ seat govt with 6 parties minimum (+whatever from former Yamina) would just be chaotic at best.

This is about Netanyahu either trying to set himself upfor his trial as prime minister or else force another election that he can win and set himself up for his trial as prime minister.

Blue and white ran on mainly two issues: removing Netanyahu from power and removing the Haredim from power. I find the idea that they would cave on either of those--especially after winning the election--to be absurd. Given that Liberman and a majority of the new Knesset share those goals, what could Gantz possibly gain from compromise? Either Likud folds or we really are headed for a third election in a year. In either case Bibi has no political or structural advantage and the longer this goes on the worse he fares. Obviously Gantz knows that and surely feels no real pressure to cave.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud reportedly agree to rotation as long as Bibi's first, also agree to parity in government between B&W and their entire bloc combined.

Some are floating around the idea to change the basic law so no confidence in a rotation government would require 80 votes.

Rivlin is looking to procrastinate with giving the mandate till next week hoping the unity talks yield something.

Disappointed by Rivlin and I think that eventually Gantz will fold. sad

What has Rivlin done wrong? He gives Gantz the mandate then Gantz likely fails tp form a government and we are on to new elections. He gives the mandate to Netanyahu he gives a shot at power to the corrupt and autocratic nemesis who has turned Rivlin's Likud into a atavistic clown show. So he is trying to avoid either outcome in the hope that Blue and White can soften and Sweeten Likud up enough to make a deal.

If I were Rivlin and Netanyahu won't budge I would pick Gideon Saar to receive the mandate first. I suspect he'll pick Gantz, though.

[jaymichaud]

Likud still coming out with these entitled demands, LOL I can't.

Gantz definitely needs to stand his ground- he has nothing to gain from caving to the status quo terms that he and his party were founded to change. B&W are capable of holding out a LOT longer than Bibi is.

[Oryxslayer]

Likud will fracture or dump Bibi if it becomes a third Election vs compromise, they can't win if the expected clock keeps ticking. MKs will revolt just out of self-preservation or an unwillingness to commit more money and resources to defend a PM who would be by then deep in his trial.

[jaymichaud]

Likud will fracture or dump Bibi if it becomes a third Election vs compromise, they can't win if the expected clock keeps ticking. MKs will revolt just out of self-preservation or an unwillingness to commit more money and resources to defend a PM who would be by then deep in his trial.

If it splits it'll probably split into 2. Some basic center-right 'conservative' party, and some right wing populist Only Bibi echo-chamber with clowns like Tzipi Hotovely, Regev, Zohar etc.

[Conservatopia]

The City data posted earlier, but arranged by party:

Snip

Do you have data for Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion?

[Vosem]

The City data posted earlier, but arranged by party:

Snip

Do you have data for Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion?

Ma'ale Adumim: Likud 49, Yamina 14, Blue and White 12, YB 7, Shas 7, Otzma 5, Labor 3, UTJ 2, Democratic Camp 1

Gush Etzion consists of a bunch of tiny municipalities. These largely have Yamina in the 60s-70s, Likud in the 10s-20s, and others irrelevant, except for the largest municipality in Gush Etzion, Betar Illit, which is a Haredi enclave that voted 65 UTJ, 28 Shas, with all others under 5.

[danny]

With the final results, Likud gains the 32nd (Keti sh**trit) by taking away UTJ's 8th seat (Yitzhak Pindrus).

https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1176613183852879873

[Oryxslayer]

With the final results, Likud gains the 32nd (Keti sh**trit) by taking away UTJ's 8th seat (Yitzhak Pindrus).

https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1176613183852879873

That has to suck if your UTJ, your vote sharing pact with Shas just ended up giving them your 8th from April.

[Hnv1]

With the final results, Likud gains the 32nd (Keti sh**trit) by taking away UTJ's 8th seat (Yitzhak Pindrus).

https://twitter.com/talschneider/status/1176613183852879873

If a unity government does happen in the end now Odeh has the majority to be the leader of the opposition

[Hnv1]

Likud reportedly agree to rotation as long as Bibi's first, also agree to parity in government between B&W and their entire bloc combined.

Some are floating around the idea to change the basic law so no confidence in a rotation government would require 80 votes.

Rivlin is looking to procrastinate with giving the mandate till next week hoping the unity talks yield something.

Disappointed by Rivlin and I think that eventually Gantz will fold. sad

What has Rivlin done wrong? He gives Gantz the mandate then Gantz likely fails tp form a government and we are on to new elections. He gives the mandate to Netanyahu he gives a shot at power to the corrupt and autocratic nemesis who has turned Rivlin's Likud into a atavistic clown show. So he is trying to avoid either outcome in the hope that Blue and White can soften and Sweeten Likud up enough to make a deal.

If I were Rivlin and Netanyahu won't budge I would pick Gideon Saar to receive the mandate first. I suspect he'll pick Gantz, though.

Rivlin should have flat out announced that Likud must provide a second candidate as he will need give a mandate to a candidate with criminal indictment

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently Netanyahu will be given the mandate to form a government tonight. I'm not sure if he is happy about that or not, but there it is. It's hard to see how he forms a government, but you never know

[Walmart_shopper]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

[jaymichaud]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

So now what? Gantz and Lieberman won’t budge for their own career’s sake. Labor, Meretz and TJL obviously won’t. And if 60 wasn’t enough, 55 sure as sh**t won’t be.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

So now what? Gantz and Lieberman won’t budge for their own career’s sake. Labor, Meretz and TJL obviously won’t. And if 60 wasn’t enough, 55 sure as sh**t won’t be.

Haaretz reported that if Bibi fails tp form a government Rivlin may not even give Gantz a shot at forming a government. All of this defies basic political sense to an extent that, if true, the quaint notion of "Israeli democracy" is clearly a very unfunny joke.

[jaymichaud]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

So now what? Gantz and Lieberman won’t budge for their own career’s sake. Labor, Meretz and TJL obviously won’t. And if 60 wasn’t enough, 55 sure as sh**t won’t be.

Haaretz reported that if Bibi fails tp form a government Rivlin may not even give Gantz a shot at forming a government. All of this defies basic political sense to an extent that, if true, the quaint notion of "Israeli democracy" is clearly a very unfunny joke.

Meh. Normally I hate “reports” from “unnamed sources” and sh*t along those lines. I wouldn’t put it past them but let’s wait and see.

[Oryxslayer]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

So now what? Gantz and Lieberman won’t budge for their own career’s sake. Labor, Meretz and TJL obviously won’t. And if 60 wasn’t enough, 55 sure as sh**t won’t be.

Haaretz reported that if Bibi fails tp form a government Rivlin may not even give Gantz a shot at forming a government. All of this defies basic political sense to an extent that, if true, the quaint notion of "Israeli democracy" is clearly a very unfunny joke.

Meh. Normally I hate “reports” from “unnamed sources” and sh*t along those lines. I wouldn’t put it past them but let’s wait and see.

especially from Haaretz which every now and again has a 'sky is falling' piece on how israel is no longer a democracy.

The major thing that is different here from april is that there will likely be no majority to dissolve the knesset again and go for election three. Elections cost money, and everyone formed joint tickets because they are struggling. So the only way this ends is with an 11th hour transformation, with either bibi getting sacked, likud splitting, or B&W becoming Blue and White.

[bigic]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

[danny]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

What Rivlin does really isn't that important, if Gantz had a majority in the Knesset he could form a coalition regardless of what Rivlin does or doesn't do.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

What Rivlin does really isn't that important, if Gantz had a majority in the Knesset he could form a coalition regardless of what Rivlin does or doesn't do.

Which is why whatever ends up happening at the 11th hour is going to matter a whole lot.

Or Rivlin might just say after these talks collapse "Bibi has failed, he's now under investigation, go at it Sa'ar." Because any other Likudnik could probably get a deal that satisfies B&W, leib, and Likud. Might be an easy way to toss Bibi aside.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

What Rivlin does really isn't that important, if Gantz had a majority in the Knesset he could form a coalition regardless of what Rivlin does or doesn't do.

I actually think giving the mandate to the guy who tried starting a war days before an election  to save his political skin really is a potentially dangerous and consequential move.

[danny]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

What Rivlin does really isn't that important, if Gantz had a majority in the Knesset he could form a coalition regardless of what Rivlin does or doesn't do.

I actually think giving the mandate to the guy who tried starting a war days before an election  to save his political skin really is a potentially dangerous and consequential move.

Neither side can form a coalition on their own and would need Likud to get to an agreement with BW. This would be true if Bibi is tasked with forming a government, and it would be just as true Gantz were.

[jaymichaud]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.