Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Oryxslayer]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

We all know that Labour and Meretz will say no to any bibi govt - either their MKs or their voters will disapprove vehemently and some point during the process. And that is ignoring their previous statements on the PM. So we are right back where we started: Gantz or Leib are needed for govt, their support is conditional, and there is no majority to dissolve the knesset now that Odeh wants Bibi's head.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

What Rivlin does really isn't that important, if Gantz had a majority in the Knesset he could form a coalition regardless of what Rivlin does or doesn't do.

I actually think giving the mandate to the guy who tried starting a war days before an election  to save his political skin really is a potentially dangerous and consequential move.

Neither side can form a coalition on their own and would need Likud to get to an agreement with BW. This would be true if Bibi is tasked with forming a government, and it would be just as true Gantz were.

Yes, I actually think we should end this charade and go to new elections. Either Liberman gets over his racism or the Likud gets over Bibi. Given the unliklihood of either of those happening, it would seem that voters will have to sort this out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

We all know that Labour and Meretz will say no to any bibi govt - either their MKs or their voters will disapprove vehemently and some point during the process. And that is ignoring their previous statements on the PM. So we are right back where we started: Gantz or Leib are needed for govt, their support is conditional, and there is no majority to dissolve the knesset now that Odeh wants Bibi's head.

Once Blue and White gets over their quaint and archaic fascination with statesmanship I think they'll very quickly jump at the opportunity to bury the right wing in a new election.

[Hnv1]

Is there a way for the President to be impeached by the parliament if he refuses to give the mandate to Gantz after Netanyahu's failure?

90 MKs can remove the president from what I recall

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So we are right back where we started: Gantz or Leib are needed for govt, their support is conditional, and there is no majority to dissolve the knesset now that Odeh wants Bibi's head.

As a great literary antisemite once wrote, "We shall not cease from exploration/And the end of all our exploring/Will be to arrive where we started/And know the place for the first time."

[Walmart_shopper]

Rivlin's office announced that they'll announce the candidate to receive the mandate for forming a government within the next couple hours. It is almost universally reported to be Netanyahu, which is truly surreal. The way in which Rivlin has propped up Bibi over the last week has been astonishing and pathetic. Thankfully Liberman and Gantz do not seem at all compelled to move off of their positions, making it impossible for Netsnyahu to succeed in forming a government.

So now what? Gantz and Lieberman won’t budge for their own career’s sake. Labor, Meretz and TJL obviously won’t. And if 60 wasn’t enough, 55 sure as sh**t won’t be.

Haaretz reported that if Bibi fails tp form a government Rivlin may not even give Gantz a shot at forming a government. All of this defies basic political sense to an extent that, if true, the quaint notion of "Israeli democracy" is clearly a very unfunny joke.

Meh. Normally I hate “reports” from “unnamed sources” and sh*t along those lines. I wouldn’t put it past them but let’s wait and see.

It is being reported elsewhere now, too. Apparently Netanyahu, knowing that he cannot cobble together 61 MKs, will return the mandate next week . Rivlin can give it to Gantz, but knowing that Gantz won't get 61 MKs, either, he may give the whole system a few weeks to figure itself out before new elections are called. Netanyahu, facing a winter trial, clearly wants a new election as soon as possible. Rivlin appearas to be obliging his wish in every possible way.

So far Blue and White seems to be notably comfortable with new elections. Liberman is the one who could be harmed with new elections so I suppose he is a real wild card in all of rhis. But the Lapid-Liberman secular alliance allegedly formed immediately after the last election in April, and which may have prompted Liberman to leave the right-religious bloc, seems airtight.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Rivlin appearas to be obliging his wish in every possible way. .

I was under the impression that Rivlin and Netanyahu were deeply hostile to each other, and that Rivlin if anything had been unduly obstructive of the right-religious bloc back in April. What's changed?

[jaichind]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

He should start with trying to get Balad since they did not endorse Gantz

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

He should start with trying to get Balad since they did not endorse Gantz

[libertpaulian]

Is Rivlin off his meds?!

[NeverAgainsSock]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

He should start with trying to get Balad since they did not endorse Gantz

They and Liberman are the true centrists of Israeli politics

[Pericles]

Is Gantz calculating that Netanyahu will probably fail to form a government and his efforts to form a government will therefore have more momentum with him going second and the pressure being on other parties to find a solution?

[jaymichaud]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

We all know that Labour and Meretz will say no to any bibi govt - either their MKs or their voters will disapprove vehemently and some point during the process. And that is ignoring their previous statements on the PM. So we are right back where we started: Gantz or Leib are needed for govt, their support is conditional, and there is no majority to dissolve the knesset now that Odeh wants Bibi's head.

Gantz is off the table- B&W issued a statement saying they won't back a PM under investigation. I'd also throw in Yisrael Beiteinu with Labor and Meretz when it comes to alienating their voter base if they align with Bibi.

Is there anyone who'd be a viable third option if Gantz can't form a coalition? Likudniks are obviously off the table as none of them are willing to tell the emperor he has no clothes. The only potential candidates I can think of are Gabi Ashkenazi or even Lapid.

[Oryxslayer]

Yep- Netanyahu was given the mandate to form a government.

He has 55 seats. He needs 61. LOL Good luck.

We all know that Labour and Meretz will say no to any bibi govt - either their MKs or their voters will disapprove vehemently and some point during the process. And that is ignoring their previous statements on the PM. So we are right back where we started: Gantz or Leib are needed for govt, their support is conditional, and there is no majority to dissolve the knesset now that Odeh wants Bibi's head.

Gantz is off the table- B&W issued a statement saying they won't back a PM under investigation. I'd also throw in Yisrael Beiteinu with Labor and Meretz when it comes to alienating their voter base if they align with Bibi.

Is there anyone who'd be a viable third option if Gantz can't form a coalition? Likudniks are obviously off the table as none of them are willing to tell the emperor he has no clothes. The only potential candidates I can think of are Gabi Ashkenazi or even Lapid.

Too soon to know if certain Likudniks are ready to ditch Bibi, hell Rivlin may just extend the recommendation to another likudite, take all the blame for ousting Bibi himself, and in affect throw Bibi under the bus. Askenazi and Sa'ar are probably the best compromise candidates if t he leadership is inflexible. We'll only know if Likud is truly spineless when the investigation occurs and negotiations approach the edge.

[Famous Mortimer]

Has any county ever had 3 elections in a row? Moldova? There can't be more, can there?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Rivlin is basically treating Gantz and Netanyahu as equals in every way despite Netanyahu's legal problems, refusal to return the mandate last time, his attempt to go to war to save his skin, his various anti-democratic ambitions and his stupid charade with the "Likud-Haredim-Smotrich" bloc. It's akin to treating the allies and the axis as equals after world war 2.

[Vosem]

Has any county ever had 3 elections in a row? Moldova? There can't be more, can there?

Ireland 1981/1981/1982, at least. Probably there are more examples.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently Rivlin proposed that Bibi and Gantz serve together as "co-prime-ministers" at the same time. Netanyahu, of course, agreed to it. Gantz refused, as he should. Literally the only reason that we are here at all is because Netanyahu needs the political cover of being prime minister to sweeten any plea deal ("I'll leave office if you keep my family out of jail") or somehow keep him from facing trial at all. Everyone knows that were Netanyahu to resign today we'd have a government in a week. But because the corruption king can't stand not getting his way we are headed for another election. It is shameless, vulgar, diplomatically bad, and just plain embarassing. I am actually supremely confident that the next election will ensure that Gantz easily becomes PM and that possibly the left wins 61 seats all on its own. Blue and White seem to believe it, too, which explains why they really seem to he totally comfortable with another election (or perhaps they are just resogned to it, who knows). In any case if Likud's polling is as bad in four weeks as I suspect it is, maybe the party will finally drop their jailbound leader. Or maybe they won't and they'll richly deserve the electoral disaster they have coming to them.

[Walmart_shopper]

Has any county ever had 3 elections in a row? Moldova? There can't be more, can there?

Ireland 1981/1981/1982, at least. Probably there are more examples.

To be fair, early 1980s Ireland basically is Moldova.

[Walmart_shopper]

Ayman Odeh also admitted that Balad (probably all too happily) pulled their recommendation for Benny Gantz as PM after Gantz asked them to do so. Gantz clearly did not want that mandate.

I tend to doubt that getting the mandate second will help much, either. Indeed, while Ruby Rivlin is (probably deservedly) getting a lot of criticism about his conduct, he seems to be using the Gantz playbook right now. If support for Bibi begins to crack in the Likud it will take several weeks for that to happen, as Netanyahu's legal woes become even clearer. But maybe Gantz doesn't want the mandate at all, as reports suggest that Rivlin may pass him up after Bibi fails to form a government. Gantz can take this argument to voters in four months and win with it: "Netanyahu has tried to form governments twice and failed. Now he is being tried for his crimes. With your vote I'll not only give you a government, but a clean one." Bibi will try to prevent this by quickly returning the mandate in hope that Gantz gets a chance to fail, too. Rivlin may indeed oblige Gantz if he politely declines in preparation for what could be an earth shattering election in February.

[Hnv1]

Rivlin is just an old sod who wants to “bridge division”. But I would note that his proposal makes it clear that a pm can’t rule while he has criminal trials going. And Bibi accepted it halfhearted

[jaymichaud]

Do we think Netanyahu is going to use the whole 4 weeks “trying” to form a coalition? Seems like a huge waste of time, if so.

[Walmart_shopper]

Do we think Netanyahu is going to use the whole 4 weeks “trying” to form a coalition? Seems like a huge waste of time, if so.

No, there's a Jewish holiday next week and he'll probably return the mandate soon after. It isn't clear what happens after that, though.

[Hnv1]

Do we think Netanyahu is going to use the whole 4 weeks “trying” to form a coalition? Seems like a huge waste of time, if so.

No, there's a Jewish holiday next week and he'll probably return the mandate soon after. It isn't clear what happens after that, though.

If Rivlin doesn't give Gantz the mandate that will be outrageous.

If he doesn't give the mandate to anyone well then elections could be called as early as February.

Bibi agreed to the Rivlin outline, he just wants to play the blame game. absurd situation.

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1177124274722791424
There might be a compromise between Liberman and the Haredi?!