VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[IceSpear]

At this point, all I can say for certain is this: the race won't be called until several hours after the polls close. Gillespie will likely take an early lead as the results start to pour in and hold on to that lead for hours, but as the percentage of precincts reporting approaches 100, Northam will chip away at Gillespie's lead until such time the race is officially called.

So basically like every remotely competitive Virginia race then? Hillary, Kaine, Obama won it pretty comfortably and even they trailed well into the night.

[IceSpear]

NBC First Read: In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage:




Only advantage they give Gillespie is that Democratic turnout is typically low in non-Presidential years, but counter that by saying that Democrats were much more enthusiastic during the June primary.

Source

Pretty accurate analysis. Which is why a loss would be an unspinnable disaster for the Dems.

They forgot that the current Dem governor is also popular.

[IceSpear]

Also preparing my "Don't Blame Me, I Supported Perriello" signature.

Guadagno is coming somewhat close to Phil Murphy, guess she’s gonna win!

It would be pretty hilarious if that happened honestly. The Democratic Party would basically need to disband at that point, lol.

[IceSpear]

kinda want gillespie to win to see the atlas meltdowns lmao

2016 didn't give you enough schadenfreude?

[IceSpear]

Apparently there's low enthusiasm for Gillespie in rural/SWVA.

Obviously Gillespie needs them to turn out in high numbers on election day.

The “wearing a coal miners hat” money quote does more to underline our identity-obsessed politics than anything else I’ve seen in a while

b-b-b-but I thought it was the Democrats obsessed with identity politics! Not muh sweet precious Appalachian miners!

[IceSpear]

Lol at all the left wingers triggered by Gillespie's slandering Northam while openly calling Trump a rapist in other threads. The hypocrisy is real.

Wow, what an insightful take! Unfortunately, though, the fact that Trump is undeniably a sexual predator renders this comparison moot. The effort you put into this whataboutery is commendable, though. Keep fighting the good fight!

Not to mention that a candidate for governor should probably be held to a higher standard than random posters on uselectionatlas.org, but hey, we're in the era of Trump now. Anything goes!

[IceSpear]

Doesn't the fact that Gillespie is getting this desperate lend more credence to the polls showing a modest to big Northam lead as opposed to the ones showing a razor thin race? I'm not sure why you'd make such a huge gamble if it really was neck and neck.

[IceSpear]

"Revival"? Moderates run the party.

This.

And even if this were true, I don't recall the victory of Larry Hogan or Charlie Baker doing this for the GOP.

I don't recall it that way Bob McDonnell either, actually he veered rightwards

Or Pat McCrory.

[IceSpear]

Northam campaign sending out mailers in PW that has a wall with bricks labelled bigotry, hatred, etc., etc. And says Gillespie is anti-hispanic, will be another brick in Trump's wall. Got it in the mail today but threw it away. This is the type of identity politics crap that will make white voters go for Gillespie. Somewhat Pink Floyd ish reference so that was cool I guess but he doesn't need gutter mailers to help him in the home stretch in PW. Hispanics will vote Dem anyway even if turnout is low (which it usually is for off off year elections).

Uh...hasn't Gillespie's entire campaign been identity politics? The double standard is insane. Pandering to resentful whites is no less identity politics than pandering to minorities.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, one thing for sure is that the indictments could not have been better timing for Northam.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/925906866164719621

Another minor controversy in an increasingly bad week for Ralph Northam.

Yeah.. the worst... not like there were indictments plaguing the Republican party on Monday (and continue to do so).

One fabricated because an outside group made an ad and somehow now Northam owns it 100%, and this... okay then.

Virginia can always elect the candidate airing ridiculous sewer-tactics pedophilia ads and blowing whistles left and right. We'll see what happens in a couple of days. This is all a bunch of bed wetting to be honest.

It's astroturf. Gillespie and the right needed something to distract from the indictments they knew were coming, and of course the media is running with it. This is blatantly obvious. I mean seriously, this is an ad with no purchasing power that was not connected to Northam's campaign at all, yet suddenly is the biggest issue in the race just as the indictments hit? GMAFB.

[IceSpear]

Is Mr. Greenberg aware that Hillary carried Virginia comfortably and by a larger margin than Obama did?

[IceSpear]

Gillespie called northern virginia "enemy territory" at a fundraiser with audio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs&app=desktop

Kevin Robillard ✔ @PoliticoKevin
.@American_Bridge is out with audio of Ed Gillespie referring to Northern Virginia has “enemy territory.” https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2sC0GFSEnqs … #VaGov

b-b-b-ut some random people ran an ad! Both sides do it!

- Media

[IceSpear]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

[IceSpear]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.

[IceSpear]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.