VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Hydera]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.

[BudgieForce]

Holy crap are you guys annoying.

[Skill and Chance]

It's strange how pretty much everyone has been treating the candidate who has consistently trailed in the polls as the favorite in this race from pretty much the day after the primary.  Not that he can't win and not that Northam hasn't done some dumb stuff this week, but the whole thing just seems very odd to me.

Nobody wants to be wrong especially after last year. I do remember the same thing being said about JBE during Louisiana in '15 saying he was going to lose just barely because it was Louisiana and ended up winning comfortably.

But this is more like everyone assuming a bland Republican running under a Dem president with 38% approval is going to lose a Gov race in Louisiana until the last minute.  Sure, VA is more like a Democratic Georgia than a Democratic Louisiana, but you get the idea.    

[HST1948]

Kind of an unrelated question, but if I recall CNU has been doing a weekly tracking poll that comes out on Thursday night/Friday... does anyone know if they are going to have  a final poll this week?

[RogueBeaver]

Dean has repudiated DFA's statement.

[Gass3268]

Kind of an unrelated question, but if I recall CNU has been doing a weekly tracking poll that comes out on Thursday night/Friday... does anyone know if they are going to have  a final poll this week?

It would probably make more sense to delay that until the weekend and release it on Monday.

[Gass3268]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

[Fudotei]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.

[BudgieForce]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.

HAHAHA....

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

[Maxwell]

what i worry about is that the green areas are just burning election day democratic votes rather than being genuine upward momentum.

i really can't extrapolate from this and want to wait til election day before seeing stuff, but, ya know, here we are.

[Skill and Chance]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Early vote map:



Green: Early vote increase today is greater than the statewide increase of 150% compared to 2013
Yellow: Early vote increase today is higher than it was in 2013, but less than the statewide increase of 150%
Red: Early vote is below where it was today in 2013
Grey: No data

Source

A lot of the green is in prime Northam territory, although there's a couple of red areas sprinkled in there.

There's also plenty of green in the exurbs, but when you combine the high turnout in Hampton Roads with the lower EV turnout in SW VA, this looks encouraging for Northam, if conclusions can be drawn from it.

This is a good map for Northam, reassuring.

[Oryxslayer]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.

[Yank2133]

Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

Lmao.

Stop pretending as if you know anything about Democratic politics in Virginia. DFA is an out of state group, they aren't relevant to VA politics what so ever.

[swf541]

Those liberal who know about the DFA definitely vote. Now, at least some will probably abstain. In off year elections, every vote counts and turnout counts. Not a good omen for Northam. I still remain pessimistic about the race as a whole. As usual, Atlas goes radically too far both ways. This does not mean Northam will lose, nor is it irrelevant- it will have an effect.

Lmao.

Stop pretending as if you know anything about Democratic politics in Virginia. DFA is a out of state group, they aren't relevant to VA politics what so ever.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Holy...

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/926242913545269248


Disastrous.

Pretty sure the Sanders cultists want Northam to lose so they’ll have something new to whine about.

oh come on

Gillespie is everything i hate about politics. everything. Despite my obvious annoyance for Northam and his mediocre moderate hero politics I felt this close to donating $25 to his campaign.

Sorry, that was a dumb thing to say.  I’ve been having a rough day and this mess just caused me to lash out a little.

[IceSpear]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

gonna put in my final guess: northam + 6

[Fudotei]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

I disagree with your end analysis, but yeah, this last week has been hell to watch. Its like both campaigns realized that they didn't want to leave any bullets left in the chamber - so they fired them all at once.

I'm (a little) joking about the Murphy result, since Guadagno doesn't have the resources to be throwing up Gillespie ads in New Jersey (this race would be Lean/Likely D even without Christie), but I really am disappointed that the Guadagno campaign isn't doing anything.

Gillespie is playing a pretty solid campaign - classic Trump/Fox 2016 playbook. Repeat, repeat, harp, motivate the base, do not for a single moment let up and make sure the terms are as brutal as can be. The Northam campaign, which exists because it needs to and not for any ideological need, is prone to falling trap to these kinds of attacks. Terrible kind of electoral politics but it's one that becomes inevitable in the changing America.

[heatcharger]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

[Dr. Arch]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

[IceSpear]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.

[IceSpear]

LOL this thread is peak Atlas.

So... I haven't been here for a full cycle yet, but... is this the norm for any competitive race on Atlas? Like, complete madness until election night?

Basically. Extreme overreaction and whiplash to every minor event.

[heatcharger]

The Trump playbook did not prove to be successful in Virginia.

People seem to forget that not only did Hillary win it, she did so by more than Obama.

It also seems to be forgotten that the Clinton campaign abandoned the state in August, leaving Trump pretty much uncontested on the airwaves and on the ground. To be fair, the latter was a disaster with highlights such as Trump talking about abandoned factories at a rally in Loudoun County.