TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Bidenworth2020]

What do you guys think about Lt. Gov. candidate Mike Collier? He seems okay on charisma, and outperformed Beto in 171 counties that I assume are mostly white and mostly rural. Could he make it competitive vs. Cornyn? If you combine his minimal inroads with rural whites (which admittedly will be fleeting) with juiced up Latino turnout in the Rio Grande valley, and Beto at the very top of the ticket, I would say he could get pretty close if TX Dems start chipping early, like Pollster said.

Or, is Kim Olson the one for that? Running women everywhere seems like a safe bet.

Olson lost by 10, i thought?

[Bidenworth2020]

Do you guys think Cornyn would be more beatable in 2020 than Cruz was in 2018?

No, Cornyn will outrun Trump almost everywhere in the state and win by 8-9 points.

Ah yeah, the voters who will vote/have voted for a Democrat for president in 2016, a Democrat for state legislature in 2018, a Democrat for House in 2018, a Democrat for Senate in 2018, and a Democrat for president in 2020 are certainly going to support John Cornyn for Senate because he’s more "likeable" and less "extremist" than Cruz, right?

Cornyn will win Hays County. I hear thousands of Lupe Valdez voters are itching to vote for him.

With the rate at which it is growing, I doubt that'd even be enough.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1106654605172244481

Joaquin Castro to enter the Senate race soon, sources say.

I'd prefer Hegar to Castro, though many other Dems I've talked to say they'd prefer Castro because he'd get the Hispanic vote to turn out at much higher rates. Not sure if I buy that during a presidential year.

he will not only heighten latino turnout but also provide coattails for the pres race. Combine that with Beto-or-higher level of suburban support, and that's a path to victory.

[Bidenworth2020]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win. As in

-clear 60% in Harris
-fight to a draw or near draw in Collin and Denton
-hold and build on the Stalinist margins out of metro Austin

IMO, these will come naturally just from the presidential race, considering he is solidly progressive and won't turn off any new voters in 2020. Castro's huge advantage is his ability to turn out Latinos, whose relatively low turnout compared to 2016 is likely what ended Beto.  Combine high latino turnout and Beto(probably better actually, considering how fast these areas are growing) #s in suburbs and although Cornyn will gain a few 100k from high rural turnout, I would put it at pure tossup.

[Bidenworth2020]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win. As in

-clear 60% in Harris
-fight to a draw or near draw in Collin and Denton
-hold and build on the Stalinist margins out of metro Austin

IMO, these will come naturally just from the presidential race, considering he is solidly progressive and won't turn off any new voters in 2020. Castro's huge advantage is his ability to turn out Latinos, whose relatively low turnout compared to 2016 is likely what ended Beto.  Combine high latino turnout and Beto(probably better actually, considering how fast these areas are growing) #s in suburbs and although Cornyn will gain a few 100k from high rural turnout, I would put it at pure tossup.

He will turn off moderates, Clinton won lots of moderates in TX, Cornyn is the inoffensive Generic R and a progressive like Castro will alienate moderates

With this argument, why didn't Beto turn off moderates?

[Bidenworth2020]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win. As in

-clear 60% in Harris
-fight to a draw or near draw in Collin and Denton
-hold and build on the Stalinist margins out of metro Austin

IMO, these will come naturally just from the presidential race, considering he is solidly progressive and won't turn off any new voters in 2020. Castro's huge advantage is his ability to turn out Latinos, whose relatively low turnout compared to 2016 is likely what ended Beto.  Combine high latino turnout and Beto(probably better actually, considering how fast these areas are growing) #s in suburbs and although Cornyn will gain a few 100k from high rural turnout, I would put it at pure tossup.

He will turn off moderates, Clinton won lots of moderates in TX, Cornyn is the inoffensive Generic R and a progressive like Castro will alienate moderates

In what world is Castro Progressive

His voting record says so.

[Bidenworth2020]

http://

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1113056854098239488

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1113121974035927046

Personally, I strongly prefer Castro for senate and her giving it another try in 13. She is great and all, but she would not get the Hispanic turnout we need.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hopefully Beto eventually takes the hint and drops down to this race. I don’t think Hegar’s the one to do it.

[Bidenworth2020]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

[Bidenworth2020]

From the Data for Progress poll, has Cornyn at 50 in the General Election. Which is OK, but not suggestive of his traditional dominating blowout victories.

Cornyn 50
Democratic candidate 42
No one 7
Would not vote 2

Should be noted that the poll has him doing 5-8 worse than Trump against the dem frontrunners (trash poll, but still).

[Bidenworth2020]

I will say Bell and Ramirez make the runoff.

[Bidenworth2020]

Question to all of my Texan friends-- who will be stronger in the runoff?