2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

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Grassley isn't winning by 20 pts, 10 yeah but not 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

They really shouldn't bother in Florida either. Knowing where not to spend is probably even more valuable than figuring out where to spend these days. I'd rather have fewer, but likelier to be won targets, than the party spreading itself too thin.

Yep, Democrats spent a lot of money chasing wild geese in dark red states like Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, and Kentucky in 2020, and that was not the wisest move.

You know good and well MT, AK, TX and KS are oil states the Election is 400 days and users are obsessed with Biden low Approvals they will come back

We won 80M votes last time too compared to Trump 70M

We won a Majority of the vote Obama and Biden

Ryan is tied in OH and DEMING'S is down by 2 in FL and so is Crist

Beto is down by only 5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/biden-approval-ratings.html

The fact that Biden has kept most of his white college, older voter support is definitely a different dynamic than 2010. The truth is a lot of very smart elections people really do not know what will happen in 2022, the last time we were polarized like this was 1876-1900, before polling began.

The Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016 already the 2014 Election they only won one blue state in CO, it's really been since 2010 , in a Midterm has Rs been able to crack blue wall MI, PA and WI and Gary Johnson cost Hillary 50K votes in the Big three anyways it only takes 278 to to win and Biden is stronger than Hillary not 413, but D's if Biden gets above 50 can make a run at NC, OH and FL

Ryan, Demings and Beasley can win in a blue wave if D's keep the H but as of now it's a 304 map anything can happen in a yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pennsylvania isn't voting 12 points to the left of Wisconsin. And I think Kelly would lose before Warnock, since Georgia is trending leftward faster than Arizona.

I agree, we need more polling.

No


WI is gonna be competitive underestimate D's in WI Johnson isn't safe

Snowlabrador thinks he is, but he only won by 3 pts like Toomey won by  2, he didn't win by 10 or 20 like Portman

GA isn't Lean R it's a Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

Lol it's always been a 304 map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs pick up New Hampshire, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada while holding all their current seats.
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Did you see the NV poll that showed CCM and SISOLAK ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Biden slump is only Temp, people are nervous about the Debt Ceiling and their SSA checks, once they resolve the Debt Ceiling by the end of Oct at the latest Biden polls will go up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

Yes, 54-46 Republican senate would not be out of the question, but neither is a 52-48 Democratic one.  Those are the reasonable ceilings for both sides.  Given the number of possible outcomes, Republicans would have a slight advantage here.

We can get 54 seats the election is 400 days not tomorrow, OH, NC, FL are swing states, D's won them with Obama and Biden on  the ballot in 2008/12 Conservatives act like they're gonna win them FOREVER, WE THOUGHT THE SAMETHING After 2008/12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's want us to Donate to Act blue and the Congress won't pass another round of Stimulus checks, and Biden Approvals are exactly where they were on Election night 48/47 abd he won 50/45 plse I am so done with contributing to Val, Ryan and Beasley they are DONE

MANDELA BARNES And FETTERMAN ARE OUR WAVE INSURANCE ABD UF WE KEEP H a 52/48 SEN  CAN ENSCR DC STATEHOOD FOR 2024/ WITH BLUE DOG Tester but we aren't sure yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop worrying about Approval ratings until Aug 22/ we won 40H seats in Aug 2018/ not Nov 2017 we have 365 days til Election and Trump keep lying about he won and AZ audit shows he lost

If we get 52+ seats and a 222/216 we clinch the 2024/TESTER, RYAN AND DEMINGS SAID THEY WILL MAKE RS  Do AT very MINIMUM A STANDING FILIBUSTER AND SUPPORT DC Statehood, if 52 it's probably DC Statehood, if it's 53 PR Statehood and Reparations and comprehensive immigration reform, we need both immigration reform and enforce the Wall, I support full enforcement of the Wall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasurer sti thinks Kelly will lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1451541777572368391?s=20

You keep posting R favored polls and D's are favored in every 304 swing state poll when have Rs have they lead in AZ Sen or VA Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D's don't need to be even on CGB they need a big lead they have to overcome TX Gerrymandering

We already know D's are gonna keep it close, because the Senate reaffirm the blue wall but 2024/ OH, AZ, MT and WV are Vulnerable if there isn't any DC Statehood with wave insurance the S is lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

COVID is going down by Nov 2022, people want Covid fixed and fast and it's unlikely because no matter whom is in office we Know immigrants in the country even Trump we got Covid with him building the Wall, there isn't anything different Rs will do than Biden to Eradicate Covid

We still have diseases long after we have the vaccine, we still have the flu and TB eventhough we have cures for them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Current environment probably means a 2010/2014 House popular vote (maybe a little better due to more polarization) of around 52%-46%.

The Election is in a yr and Covid cases are declining don't count your chickens before they hatch, Trump is polarizing too because the R brand name is tied to him he is at 37 percent, if you think that Rs are gonna have the Majorities that had in 2000s think again, Boehner and Paul Ryan were effective unlike McCarthy whom is an Insurrectionists

Rs had 240 seats after 2014 due to Boehner and Ryan not Mccarthy

Even if Rs do take the H it will be a 1 yr probation because Biden has the veto pen for 2 yrs and any Govt shutdown would be on Rs not Pelosi

Rs can't pass anything they want unless Trump or DeSantis becomes Prez if Biden isn't at 50 percent in 2022 he will be in 2024 to regain H of Rep

Rs won't be able to pass anything unless Biden approves of it, Biden will veto any tax cuts for the rich

Just like Rs think that OH is safe and Josh Mandel isn't Rob Portman, he has been tied in every poll with Ryan

Rs success depends on only holding Biden Approvals down below 50 and we he gets above it, D's win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So it begins!

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Biden is leading by 4bpts in OH and it's not beginning the Election as I have said many times is a yr not last Tuesday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters have ridiculously short memories, what the F**K is wrong with this country?

Rs keep taxes low, the Spending bills and infrastructure hasn't been passed, there has been zero impact yet on voters, but the Rs have won the H of Rep just like Reagan because they don't raise taxes

Biden is leading by 4 in tipping pt WI that's all that matter, abd we still won 304 state NJ Youngkin promised not to raise taxes because D's kept control of Legislative

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was inevitable, from the moment everyone realized COVID actually wasn't going to fade away after vaccines were rolled out, and society would still have major residual problems from the pandemic.

Practically every midterm is a wave against the party in power, and because Democrats have the structural disadvantages they have, it's worse for them even if they manage to get only a modestly unfavorable midterm.

On top of that, Biden's approval ratings actually went down faster than Obama's did during the same period. I don't know why everyone thought just because he had a very modest honeymoon period that somehow that was a signal that it would endure long past Biden's first year.

Dems need to realize that just winning the Presidency is destroying the party.  Each successive midterm wave during a Dem Presidency has brought the party to lower point in state legislative and house seats than the last.  1994 brought Dems lower than at any point since 1946, then 2010 brought Dems lower than 1994 and 2014 brought Dems lower than 2010.   What use is the presidency if you can’t win anything else?

Yeah, have you forgotten Biden passed 1400 checks and vaccines in arms, when Trump was in office, Trump only gave vaccines to Hospital Doctors, and the stimulus would have been 600 not 1400 because Johnson and Mcconnell lost the GA races, because they only wanted 600 not 2K checks

It's a shame that they won't pass another round because Biden Approvals would shoot up, but he isn't a Socialist like Booker or Bernie or To Khanna whom want another 1400

Ah you spent your 2K that's why you don't remember Biden passing it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden’s not been a bad president but it seems like he might receive a shellacking even greater than 2010 at this rate. I kind of feel bad for him.

You think Dems would actually lose 63 House seats when they only hold 222?

I mean the obvious similarity would be dems at 193 house seats. R+29.

Yeah I think that’s a pretty likely result.

DOOMER like the Election is gonna happen this month, it's a freaking yr from now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Russian bear love to post polls favoring Rs a yr before the Election anyways these polls don't matter until Aug 22 anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Biden Approvals are near where he won the NPVI he won by 50/45 is all where he needs to be by in order to get a 304 map


BIDEN DIDNOT WIN 60/40% HE WON BY 50/45 ITS A 304 MAP PLAIN AND SIMPLE


Snowlabrador you predicted Warnock and Gary Peters to lose and they won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Keep in mind - there will also be less competitive districts next year.

Nothing short of Biden +12 is going blue in 2022. Hence why I think CO-SEN is a tossup.

Yeah right, Bennet is leading by 12

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

🤔🤔🤔🤔The election is not last Tuesday it's Nov 2022, how many times do D's have to tell Rs this

Just like Trump leads Biden the Election is 1000 days and wait til media start scrutiny of Trump again

Polls don't mean much until Aug 2022, not Dec 2021

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

NV 2008: D+12.5
NV 2020: D+2.5

Definitely unwinnable even in a GOP wave.

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We're not gonna in nje if it's a save until next yr Aug b not this yeat Rs need to stop measuring the drapes Trp lost badly in 2018/ due to Ukraine and Impeachment, Rs only won, one blue state in an R wave in 2014 CO and Unemployment was 11% in 2010 R wave, totally different dynamics in each midterm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1458606105848954883?s=21

or whatever it’s called

This is the poll that had Biden in the 30s?

If it's a 304 map why is Gretchen W trailing by Six and Evers is under 50% they should be ahead

Civitas polls showing Biden Approvals low in all the purple states should be a red flag for Whitmer and Tony Evers, they're not gonna easily win like they did in 201

There is not any campaign for Cali Gov, but Newsom said give him another yr, the Recall reelected him for 1 more yr it wasnt for 4 we don't know about Cali Gov race either, any red wave will wash out Newsom with Eider remember Quinn in 2014/ he was assured a Reelection and he was washed out by an R wave, that can happen to Newsom, Whitmer or Evers whom are weak