2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Thanks to new McLaughlin and OnMessage polls that were meh for the GOP, the 538 tracker is now back at dead even, 44.1-44.1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

I wonder if the liberal media talking about how much Trump is supposedly favored to win will cause some sort of momentum for down ballot Dems. Voters don't like either candidates, it's easy to see them gravitating towards the opposing party so that they can keep some sort of a check on them. We're already seeing how well Senate Dems are polling. Maybe we won't see any major convergence after all?

In 2020 we saw some incumbent house Democrats lose while Biden was carrying their districts like Donna Shalala and TJ Cox. I could potentially see the opposite happening this year with the likes of Marc Molinaro, Ken Calvert, David Schweikert, Derrick Van Orden, Boebert’s old seat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1763665938010796529

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

It's a matter of how you present yourself if that's the case though. Hovde and McCormick seemingly can't stop talking about how many houses they own in other states and even countries.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

If the bar is Dr. Oz who lost to (checks notes) John Fetterman of all people by 5% in a Biden midterm, then sure. They’ve cleared that absurdly low bar.

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

If the bar is Dr. Oz who lost to (checks notes) John Fetterman of all people by 5% in a Biden midterm, then sure. They’ve cleared that absurdly low bar.

He literally said he was comparing candidate quality now to 2022, so yes the 2022 candidates are the bar…

That being said I don’t actually agree, I don’t see Rs having much of a chance in a bunch of states they theoretically should compete in (PA, WI, MI…). Ds have their own problems but have generally done a much sounder job at fielding candidates who can at least run even with the national partisan baseline, if not well beyond it.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

If the bar is Dr. Oz who lost to (checks notes) John Fetterman of all people by 5% in a Biden midterm, then sure. They’ve cleared that absurdly low bar.

He literally said he was comparing candidate quality now to 2022, so yes the 2022 candidates are the bar…

That being said I don’t actually agree, I don’t see Rs having much of a chance in a bunch of states they theoretically should compete in (PA, WI, MI…). Ds have their own problems but have generally done a much sounder job at fielding candidates who can at least run even with the national partisan baseline, if not well beyond it.

“Only noticeable errors” was in the original post. Residency issues are essentially a killer in any competitive race and they don’t need to be anywhere near as egregious as Mehmet Oz to cause a significant underperformance. Comparing candidate recruitment to the disastrous 2022 slate (when many of those same 2022 losers are running again and favored in primaries) is like saying “yeah, we only totaled our car this time, but at least it isn’t as bad as last time where we totaled the building we crashed it into.”

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

[Tekken_Guy]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

Michigan is not a toss-up. Slotkin is pretty clearly favored there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

Michigan is not a toss-up. Slotkin is pretty clearly favored there.

No she's not. The Senate race was closer than the Presidential race despite Peters have incumbency and the "motorbike" appeal.

[Spectator]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

Michigan is not a toss-up. Slotkin is pretty clearly favored there.

No she's not. The Senate race was closer than the Presidential race despite Peters have incumbency and the "motorbike" appeal.

Slotkin is polling better than Biden, but only marginally so. I think tossup is appropriate, as would be so for Nevada, Montana, and Ohio. Texas is Lean R right now but if Allred keeps posting tied polls or even leads it could move to tossup.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1766126402519130250

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1766159407807652115?s=46
Lol. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[Ferguson97]

lol I guess the pregnant intern rumors were true

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

This is pretty funny. Unfortunately/fortunately, he’s definitely the best candidate Ds could run against Schweikert: good-looking, center-left, professional/Ivy/finance background in most educated and wealthy district in the state. Primary voters are going to go with Galan Woods, however, who’s running like a liberal Kari Lake atm.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/robertanglen/status/1757068463498305581

This is pretty funny. Unfortunately/fortunately, he’s definitely the best candidate Ds could run against Schweikert: good-looking, center-left, professional/Ivy/finance background in most educated and wealthy district in the state. Primary voters are going to go with Galan Woods, however, who’s running like a liberal Kari Lake atm.

Woods is not a lock to win the primary, nor do I even think she’s favored ATM; that would be Andrei Cherny IMO.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

I believe it’ll be close but she’ll end up winning. There will probably be fewer Democrats voting in that primary than in the presidential from February, and I imagine there will be more Haley-Mace than Trump-Templeton voters.

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Yeah, Mace's 2022 primary challenger was endorsed by Trump. Funny thing is that she was also endorsed by Trump in 2018 when she primaried out Mark Sanford and ended up losing the seat.