2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[windjammer]

Honestly I don't want to be disappointed again. Let's wait for the elections on tuesday.

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1324719036953993216

Well to be fair when a party starts saying that the polls are junk, this usually means they are headed to a defeat

[windjammer]

Those years Democrats were coming in to election night with huge expectations, poll numbers showing them winning safe red states (Biden winning/close to winning Ohio and Iowa) some even exceeding the 50% mark, money, momentum, supposed help from SCOTUS related issues, etc..

Really, what difference is it this time around?

The difference is that the special elections are pointing to an environnement that isn't going to be unfavoravle to the dems so we have datas to feel more optimistic than last year

[windjammer]

I have checked and the polls for the Generic ballot in 2018 were very much correct

[windjammer]

Obviously they're seeing something if they're dumping nearly $2M in then. The committees likely know more than us since they have more data than we see.

Unless the polls those very competent committees (NRCC/NRSC) are working with have the same bias as the polls which we here have seen, of course, but let’s just rule out that scenario (even though that’s what happened in 2020).

For the record, the words you used "those very competent committees" killed me very hard.

[windjammer]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

Well let's focus on the Big shift !

[windjammer]

I mean, OK WA and IN are semi competitive apparently. What a weird cycle

[windjammer]

The dems' lead is widening right?

[windjammer]

Improvement for the dems ?

[windjammer]

Actually in 2018 the RCP generic congressional polls underestimated the dems

[windjammer]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

If that plays out - what’s the house rating at

Well I think this would be enough for dems to keep the House