2021 College Football Discussion and Pick'em Thread

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I would prefer the Big 12 just go away rather than backfill, but are any of them likely to get interest from a remaining P5 conference other than maybe Kansas/Big 10 and maaaaaaybe West Virginia/ACC?

And how can Oklahoma leave Oklahoma State behind? I've always heard state politics won't allow it. Maybe Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas and Oklahoma State takes the spot into the SEC? I think Mizzou's faculty would like that, but I think the fans have moved on from the Big 10 fantasies.

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If the Big 10 wants to make a splash on the level of this SEC splash, they pretty have to add Notre Dame or Clemson. Kansas isn't going to cut it alone, and really Virginia and North Carolina don't either.

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Here's a creative idea for what the SEC should do if Texas and OU join to form a 16-team conference. 

Divide the conference into two divisions based on strength, with relegation and promotion each year like English soccer leagues do. For example, to start with it could be divided something like this:

First Division:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Second Division:

Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Missouri
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

At the end of each year, the bottom two teams in the first division swap with the top two in the second division. Teams could play a round-robin within their division (7 games) plus one opponent from the other division, for a total of 8 conference games. That would provide a way for natural rivals like Alabama & Auburn or the Mississippis to play every year even if they wound up in different divisions.

It will never happen, of course, but it would be interesting.

Why in the world would anyone in your lower half ever agree to that? And why does a school who's been to 11 straight bowl games get slotted into the lower half anyway?

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CBS Sports writer's prediction of where the remaining Big 12 teams will end up if the conference implodes:

Baylor: AAC
Iowa State: Big 10
Kansas: Big 10
Kansas State: MWC
Oklahoma State: Pac-12
TCU: Pac-12
Texas Tech: AAC
West Virginia: ACC

I'm skeptical that the Pac-12 would prefer TCU to Texas Tech, but who knows.

Barrett Sallee is a joke. I wouldn't believe anything he says.

Remember how 10 years ago, the Pac-12 was pretty reluctant about the idea of adding Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, but was willingly to begrudgingly do so if they brought Texas and Oklahoma along? I just don't see them being attractive targets for the Pac-12 today without those bigger fish. If the Pac-12 would be interested in anyone, it might be Kansas (although still a longshot for the reasons Xahar gave), and I just don't see the Pac-12 seeing Kansas as so valuable they're worth reaching way out geographically and/or bringing in some who don't meet the cultural or academic requirements of the league. I think the Pac-12 stays at 12 for now.

The Big 10 is unlikely to consider a non-AAU member (although I think they would take Oklahoma), so that leaves Iowa State and Kansas. I don't see a compelling reason to add Iowa State at all, with it being a clear second fiddle in a small state, but maybe if Iowa State wins the CFP this fall they can barge on in. I think the Big 10 would either want to take Missouri (and maybe Kansas along as #16), or else do a big splash and grab a bunch of ACC schools. Imagine a 20-team super league that adds Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame. (Clemson, FSU, and ND are not AAU members, but still probably worth adding if they can.)

The ACC could add West Virginia - it makes sense geographically, and they have some rivalries in the conference, but the ACC already went out on an academic limb for Louisville, and West Virginia is ranked even worse. If they decide that basketball matters in realignment decisions, a package deal of Iowa State, Kansas, and Baylor could make sense, but I don't think any realignment decision this century has been made on the basis of basketball, other than maybe the Big East adding Memphis before the big split.

What's got to suck for the schools is that several of them could have been plausible SEC adds had Oklahoma and Texas gone to a different conference. The SEC is probably the only P5 who would prefer Kansas State to Kansas, and I could definitely see the SEC deciding to pick up, say Oklahoma State and Kansas State as #15 and #16 in a world where the conferences fall apart and everyone moves toward 16.

All that to say, I don't think anything's happening. I saw on Twitter the remaining 8 were reaching out to the Pac-12 about a full 20-team merger, which is an interesting idea. Those 8 teams ought to really hope the Big 10 raids the ACC and maybe they can try to work out something with those remnants. Otherwise, my prediction is that the Big 12 reloads with 2-4 good G5s like Cincinnati and becomes a diminished member of the P5, at least in prestige, though overall average FPI of the conference may not be particularly affected.

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Well, the Big 12 is now claiming the AAC is trying to absorb all 8 of its remaining members after Texas and Oklahoma leave.  This seems far-fetched to me; it would effectively amount to a Big 12-AAC merger, and if that were to happen it would make a lot more sense to keep the Big 12 name and standing as an autonomy conference. 

The resulting conference would also have 19 football members, which would be unwieldy unless they plan to kick out the AAC bottom-feeders.

Yeah that merger plan only really works in a world where the Big 10 invites Iowa State and Kansas and the ACC invites West Virginia (+ Cincinnati?) and gets the numbers down a little.

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Tulsa losing to UC Davis

Terrible loss for Tulsa, a 22-point favorite.

Karma

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Why in the world was North Carolina a top 10 team in the first place?

I don't think they would be one of the top 10 teams in the SEC if that was their conference...

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Why in the world was North Carolina a top 10 team in the first place?

I don't think they would be one of the top 10 teams in the SEC if that was their conference...

UNC was a bit overhyped but they're far better than SEC bottom-feeders, lol.

I doubt it. Remember last year when everybody laughed at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Kentucky for playing in bowl games despite losing records and being among the worst teams in the SEC, but then they all 3 beat ranked teams from other conferences in the bowls? (To the surprise of no one in the SEC, but to the shock of the rest of the country...)

North Carolina is obviously much better than Vanderbilt, but you can make a case for anyone else in the SEC beating them. The lower half teams in the SEC tend to recruit as well as UNC or better, and put a similar number of players in the NFL draft. And I didn't say UNC would be last in the SEC, just 11th or worse if they were the SEC's 15th team.

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Kansas fans just stormed the field after a 17-14 victory over FCS South Dakota

Not just any FCS team, but one that hasn't had a winning season since 2017.

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North Carolina is obviously much better than Vanderbilt, but you can make a case for anyone else in the SEC beating them. The lower half teams in the SEC tend to recruit as well as UNC or better, and put a similar number of players in the NFL draft. And I didn't say UNC would be last in the SEC, just 11th or worse if they were the SEC's 15th team.

I'm going to go ahead and say that Carolina is better than Mississippi State. This is just really bleak.

Mississippi State plays NC State next week, so we'll get a better data point to answer that question. I think NC State is approximately as good as UNC, maybe a little better or worse.

I wonder where Louisiana Tech would finish in the SEC.

I mean, is there any real doubt that they'd be 14th (ahead of only Vanderbilt)? I guess if Mississippi State finishes somewhere in the middle you could make an argument for a little higher.

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North Carolina is obviously much better than Vanderbilt, but you can make a case for anyone else in the SEC beating them. The lower half teams in the SEC tend to recruit as well as UNC or better, and put a similar number of players in the NFL draft. And I didn't say UNC would be last in the SEC, just 11th or worse if they were the SEC's 15th team.

I'm going to go ahead and say that Carolina is better than Mississippi State. This is just really bleak.

Mississippi State plays NC State next week, so we'll get a better data point to answer that question. I think NC State is approximately as good as UNC, maybe a little better or worse.

I don't know how you could come to that conclusion. Carolina is currently 18th in the Massey composite, which seems fair. NC State is 45. To put that into SEC terms, it's roughly the gap between LSU and Kentucky.

All of the computer rankings are basically made up right now. (I realize they incorporate prior year stuff and "coaching" factors, but come on.)

We'll have a good idea by the end of the year if UNC is better than at least 5 SEC teams or not. I suspect the answer is No, but I happily admit I was wrong if they are.

PS: I've never heard "Carolina" refer to UNC before. I hear the team often referring to South Carolina in a college football context. I wonder if that's an SEC peculiarity.

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Harry's "SEC has 13 top teams" argument not looking so good...

Wut

I said that the SEC has 10 teams better than North Carolina, which is up in the air [and probably right]. I intentionally left myself an out for Vanderbilt and even bought myself 3 more, a total scam on the anti-SEC people (!).

I can't imagine that North Carolina would be favored against LSU if they were playing next week, as embarrassing as this performance is for them. They may be one of the 3 additional SEC schools not better than North Carolina.

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PS: I've never heard "Carolina" refer to UNC before. I hear the team often referring to South Carolina in a college football context. I wonder if that's an SEC peculiarity.

I find this (almost literally) incredible! I do remember that I realized I had spent a lot of time in the South when I found myself using "USC" to refer to South Carolina.

That's really interesting. You live/lived in Georgia, right? Did you discuss football a lot with Georgia fans, especially in, say, 2019, when a 4-8 "Carolina" team came into Athens and beat them?

Or I wonder if "Carolina" is just an SEC West thing?

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"Is UCLA good finally?" is a fascinating question that I can't wait to learn the answer to. I thought Chip Kelly was an outstanding coach, but after his first 3 years there, I'm not sure anymore.

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NMSU is +21 vs UNM. That just seems absurd to me.

Insane in that it should be higher? Earlier this year, Tarleton State (!) kicked the sh**t of out NMSU.

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It pains me to say this, but GO NOLES. I hate Notre Dame more than any other program with the exception of Pedo State.

More than the service academies?

Air Force is pretty likable.

I think the Big 12 should add the 3 service academies instead of duplicating a state they're already in, a directional school, or a vehement gaybashers who teach the Book of Mormon in archaeology class.

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It pains me to say this, but GO NOLES. I hate Notre Dame more than any other program with the exception of Pedo State.

More than the service academies?

They're all top 10 for sure.

Speaking of the Faux Irish, I see they pulled out a squeaker in OT. I think sudden death should be abolished. Each team should get at least one chance to score.

I think you're [correctly] arguing that the NFL should switch to college overtime?

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It pains me to say this, but GO NOLES. I hate Notre Dame more than any other program with the exception of Pedo State.

More than the service academies?

Air Force is pretty likable.

I think the Big 12 should add the 3 service academies instead of duplicating a state they're already in, a directional school, or a vehement gaybashers who teach the Book of Mormon in archaeology class.

I support all the service academies because I'm a patriot. I was referring to CraneHusband's disdain for the military.

Also, both Houston and UCF (unlike most directional schools) are respectable research institutions with large alumni bases that disperse across their big states and regions. Pretty good fit for a P5, imo. And BYU is a magnificent brand. The service academies are a terrible institutional fit, and don't need to tie themselves into a dumpster fire of a conference.

I dislike the service academies more than the regular military itself, if for nothing else that the welfare queens at the academies are stealing more of our money per capita than anyone.
They were last relevant in about 1880. Time to nuke them into orbit, possibly using our new Space Force equipment we wasted so much money on.

The Space Force Academy should be in the SEC.

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Vanderbilt @ Colorado State 10 PM EST CBSSN (I really don't think we're as bad as we looked last week, but I'm still not picking us.  Hope I'm wrong).

You basically have to be right by default because no SEC team could ever possibly be bad enough to make "getting the sh**t beat out of them by an FCS team" the expected result.

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Florida State just lost to Jacksonville State on one of the most poorly defended Hail Mary attempts I've ever seen

https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/1436902199037149184

The Faux Irish almost lost to this team last week.

Today, they almost lost to Toledo.

Why are they a top 10 team again?

College football tradition dictates that Notre Dame, Michigam, and Texas must start out the year drastically overrated.

Tennessee used to be in that group too and it looks like pollsters finally learned their lesson after all those years, so maybe there is still hope.

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Why stop at Riley? Why not include Saban, if we're including people who have zero interest in this opening? Not even sure that Cristobal would leave a comfortably humming program to go try to muck out Heritage Hall. He's at least a reasonable target, but another well-resourced and historically great program has already tried to pry away Cristobal and failed.

Realistic names here, besides Cristobal, are James Franklin, if they can pry him away from Penn State, and Luke Fickell. USC's new AD is the ex-AD at Cincinnati and hired Fickell, so the relationship is there already.

James Franklin will never leave, he loves the cult and its vast potential of covering up crimes when he needs them to.

You mean to tell me that any school that had a Sandusky situation wouldn't have done what Penn State did?

If you're saying that, you're dead wrong.

There are fewer than 10 Power 5 schools that would have covered up the Sandusky situation like Penn State did. Not 0, but most of them wouldn't have. Most of them don't have an active coaching legend to protect.

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Surprised by how many people are picking Memphis. I hope I don't have to eat those words tomorrow.

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With 9 minutes left in the first half, Army leads UConn 35-0.  UConn should seriously consider dropping football or moving down to FCS.

They should try to convince Delaware, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Maine to move up and form a football-only conference, but make a rule limiting scholarships to like 75 or something and reduced budgets so they're all on the same page. It would give them all something tangible to play for, and maybe a bowl tie-in or two.

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Good God, Florida State sucks.

And therefore Notre Dame as well, which would be about the 30th time in my life Notre Dame has been overrated in September.

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Does anyone understand what happened with that punt in the Memphis-Miss. State game?  How was the ball not downed and the play over?

Because the refs are an absolute disgrace. The SEC will give us an apology Monday, as if that's some kind of consolation.

I'm generally not one to blame games on refs, because there's always a lot of random stuff happening and no game comes down to 1 play, but assuming no miracle comeback, this game is on the refs.