2021 College Football Discussion and Pick'em Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

College football is just a little over a month away!  The season starts with a handful of games on Saturday, August 28, but doesn't really get into full swing until the following weekend.  Terry the Fat Shark (aka dfwlibertylover) and I are planning to run a weekly pick'em game again this year; stay tuned for more details.

To kick off the discussion, here's an interesting article from CBS Sports indicating that Texas and Oklahoma are flirting with the SEC.  If those two do end up going to the SEC, it would create the first 16-team superconference.  It would also leave the Big 12 with only eight members, so they'd probably need to backfill with some of the stronger G5 schools (in both football and basketball) such as Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, BYU, or Boise State.

[7,052,770]

I would prefer the Big 12 just go away rather than backfill, but are any of them likely to get interest from a remaining P5 conference other than maybe Kansas/Big 10 and maaaaaaybe West Virginia/ACC?

And how can Oklahoma leave Oklahoma State behind? I've always heard state politics won't allow it. Maybe Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas and Oklahoma State takes the spot into the SEC? I think Mizzou's faculty would like that, but I think the fans have moved on from the Big 10 fantasies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would prefer the Big 12 just go away rather than backfill, but are any of them likely to get interest from a remaining P5 conference other than maybe Kansas/Big 10 and maaaaaaybe West Virginia/ACC?

And how can Oklahoma leave Oklahoma State behind? I've always heard state politics won't allow it. Maybe Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas and Oklahoma State takes the spot into the SEC? I think Mizzou's faculty would like that, but I think the fans have moved on from the Big 10 fantasies.

That might happen.  Now there are rumors that if Texas and OU leave, the Pac-12 is interested in Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Texas Tech.  This would leave the Big 12 with West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, and K-State.  I suppose West Virginia might be attractive to the ACC; the other three would probably need to join forces with the American.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd be interested in a pick'em... though I think we should do the games on August 28.

As for Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, I think that's about as likely as Florida State and Clemson joining the SEC.

Won't happen.

[Santander]

I would prefer the Big 12 just go away rather than backfill, but are any of them likely to get interest from a remaining P5 conference other than maybe Kansas/Big 10 and maaaaaaybe West Virginia/ACC?

And how can Oklahoma leave Oklahoma State behind? I've always heard state politics won't allow it. Maybe Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas and Oklahoma State takes the spot into the SEC? I think Mizzou's faculty would like that, but I think the fans have moved on from the Big 10 fantasies.

Kansas is in a similar situation as Oklahoma in that they can't leave unless it's a package deal with K-State. Of course, if the Big 12 implodes, which it would if Texas/OU engineered an exit, state politicians probably wouldn't stand in KU's way of joining the Big Ten.

Big 12 is such a dumpster fire, lol. You have 2 huge programs that every conference would kill for, Kansas which has some appeal, and then a bunch of garbage, Baylor which is even worse than garbage, and Iowa State which is not actually that bad at anything but is just in a horrible place.

[Хahar 🤔]

My first reaction to this story was skepticism, but that changed when neither Texas nor Oklahoma denied anything. At this point it's very clear that the rest of the Big 12 sees this as a real threat. At this point, until there's information to the contrary, one has to assume that the plan is for this to happen.

Everyone seems to be assuming that if this goes through that the Big 12 will fall apart, but I'm not sure about that, just because the remaining eight schools don't have an obvious landing spot. Scouring some Texas Tech boards today, people there seemed convinced that (as GeorgeiaModerate suggests) they'd be included in an imminent Pac-16 expansion. It's possible that the conference does that just to be doing something since everyone else is (it wouldn't be the first time), but otherwise the proposed schools add absolutely nothing. The Pac-12 does not need to add schools, and it is unclear to me how it would benefit from adding a group of second- and third-tier schools in distant and lightly populated areas with no real history of football success and no serious revenue.

A&M would obviously be unhappy about this, but A&M has no moral grounds to make an argument and it can't stop this from happening. Oklahoma State's opposition might be more salient, but I doubt that Oklahoma State has the clout in the state legislature to stop Oklahoma from doing what it wants, particularly since T. Boone Pickens is dead and can no longer use his billions.

It is darkly amusing that Texas and Oklahoma are citing the Big 12's instability as their reason for leaving, given that that perceived instability has been caused exclusively by Texas and Oklahoma constantly talking about leaving. I think the most meaningful way to look at this is as a victory for ESPN, which is taking over the SEC contract from CBS, over Fox, which holds the rights to the Big 12. This will make college football worse, as have all the rounds of realignment and all the changes to the postseason in my lifetime, but everyone involved has concluded that what's good for ESPN is good for the country.

I would prefer the Big 12 just go away rather than backfill, but are any of them likely to get interest from a remaining P5 conference other than maybe Kansas/Big 10 and maaaaaaybe West Virginia/ACC?

And how can Oklahoma leave Oklahoma State behind? I've always heard state politics won't allow it. Maybe Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas and Oklahoma State takes the spot into the SEC? I think Mizzou's faculty would like that, but I think the fans have moved on from the Big 10 fantasies.

Missouri is a basket case as an academic institution; the Big Ten absolutely does not want that, even though Missouri desperately wants to be a Big Ten institution.

[Santander]

Missouri is a basket case as an academic institution; the Big Ten absolutely does not want that, even though Missouri desperately wants to be a Big Ten institution.

It's a horrifically-mismanaged institution, but it still meets the bare minimum qualifications for Big Ten membership for now, which is what keeps their faculty's hopes up. Big risks for the Big Ten that are not mitigated by a large media market or brand name football program, though.

But when thinking about a companion to add alongside Kansas, which is an obvious target, Mizzou has to be in the conversation unless the Big Ten can pull off a coup and steal Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, or maybe Boston College. Any other suitable institution is either off-limits (Pitt, Iowa State) or fantasy (Duke/UNC, Texas/Oklahoma).

[Хahar 🤔]

Missouri is a basket case as an academic institution; the Big Ten absolutely does not want that, even though Missouri desperately wants to be a Big Ten institution.

It's a horrifically-mismanaged institution, but it still meets the bare minimum qualifications for Big Ten membership for now, which is what keeps their faculty's hopes up. Big risks for the Big Ten that are not mitigated by a large media market or brand name football program, though.

But when thinking about a companion to add alongside Kansas, which is an obvious target, Mizzou has to be in the conversation unless the Big Ten can pull off a coup and steal Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, or maybe Boston College. Any other suitable institution is either off-limits (Pitt, Iowa State) or fantasy (Duke/UNC, Texas/Oklahoma).

I didn't contest this when replying to Harry, but Kansas is far from an obvious target to me. KU does not have the academic and institutional issues of MU (although that is liable to change whenever the radical wing of the Kansas Republican Party takes power again), but aside from that it has all the same issues.

From the standpoint of media market size, which of course was the driving factor in the last round of realignment, all Kansas has to offer is Kansas City and Wichita, neither of which are anything to write home about. Unfortunately, that's the best asset that Kansas has. I've seen it suggested (and it makes sense) that media markets are less important now than they were in the 2010s as a result of the widespread shift from cable to streaming. That will be an issue for Kansas, since the Jayhawks certainly won't draw streaming eyeballs. It bears remembering that Kansas has been for a full decade literally the worst major-conference football program in the country; when considering the ratio of financial investment to on-field success, it might be the worst football program anywhere. People were bemused by the Big Ten adding Rutgers, but there's no really comparison between the state of Rutgers football at the time of its invitation to the Big Ten and the state of Kansas football now.

Kansas does have a very famous and successful basketball program, but there has never been any indication at any stage of conference reorganization that basketball matters at all to major football conferences. If it did, the last decade would have gone very differently for Connecticut.

Of course, this is all premised on the Big Ten deciding to expand at the same time as the SEC. It's true that the Big Ten expanded to fourteen when the SEC did, but both of the schools the Big Ten added had something obvious going for them in terms of market size, which was clearly the most important thing at the time. There's no particular reason that the Big Ten has to follow the SEC now, and the quality of the available options provides a strong reason not to do that.

Something I've seen repeatedly since this report first broke (particularly from people not associated with the Pac-12 or Big Ten) is that the inherent P5-ness of the rump Big 12 schools will lead to most of them being picked up by existing major conferences. Left unexamined is why exactly the Pac-12 or Big Ten would need to add more teams to get to sixteen right this instant or why they would dip into the dregs of the Big 12 to do so.

[7,052,770]

If the Big 10 wants to make a splash on the level of this SEC splash, they pretty have to add Notre Dame or Clemson. Kansas isn't going to cut it alone, and really Virginia and North Carolina don't either.

[DINGO Joe]

I've never quite understood how WVU has been able to maintain their status.

[Illiniwek]

If I am the Big Ten, I first kick out Maryland and Rutgers. Sorry, it just not working out. I know that is not likely in reality, but it is what I would do.

Then I call Texas and Oklahoma to see if we can nab them before its too late, with a promise of adding regional partners if they join.

Next team I call of course is Notre Dame as one final Hail Mary attempt to get them to join.

Then perhaps I'll give UNC and UVA a chance.

Then I fill out the remaining spots to add current/former Big 12 teams in this order: Kansas, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State to get to 16.

                                         

[GeorgiaModerate]

With another realignment looming, it made me think of how much the major conferences have changed since I started following college football in the mid/late 1960s.  These were the original conferences I remember:


ACC:

Clemson
Duke
Maryland (now in Big 10)
North Carolina
N.C. State
South Carolina (now in SEC)
Virginia
Wake Forest


Big 8 (now Big 12):

Colorado (now in Pac-12)
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska (now in Big 10)
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State


Big 10:

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin


Pac-8 (now Pac-12):

Cal
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State


SEC:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Tulane? (now in AAC - I seem to vaguely remember them leaving the SEC in 1966.  Georgia Tech left in '64, but that was definitely before my football memories.)


SWC (defunct):

Arkansas (now in SEC)
Baylor (now in Big 12)
Rice (now in C-USA)
SMU (now in AAC)
Texas (now in Big 12, for the moment)
Texas A&M (now in SEC)
TCU (now in Big 12)
Texas Tech (now in Big 12)


WAC (it was actually a decent football conference back then, but membership has turned over several times since):

Arizona (now in Pac-12)
Arizona State (now in Pac-12)
BYU (now independent in football; WCC in other sports)
Colorado State (now in MWC)
New Mexico (now in MWC)
Utah (now in Pac-12)
UTEP (now in C-USA)
Wyoming (now in MWC)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is actually happening... A devastating blow to the entire sport. What is the point of like 8-10 teams fighting it out for the right to play Clemson in the title game? I don't get it. Unless playoff expansion goes forward to and we get 3 loss SEC teams in the playoffs.

A&M in the SEC made a little sense. Texas? Absolutely none.

[Orwell]

Michigan State to the Playoff! Go Green!

[Donerail]

This is actually happening... A devastating blow to the entire sport. What is the point of like 8-10 teams fighting it out for the right to play Clemson in the title game? I don't get it. Unless playoff expansion goes forward to and we get 3 loss SEC teams in the playoffs.

I think that's the key to it — this doesn't happen if there's not a 12-team playoff. Not a chance that Oklahoma would give up what's basically been an auto-bid for them.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

At least we finally get to see OU lose on a regular basis and Baylor gets screwed over too (so does TCU)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a creative idea for what the SEC should do if Texas and OU join to form a 16-team conference. 

Divide the conference into two divisions based on strength, with relegation and promotion each year like English soccer leagues do. For example, to start with it could be divided something like this:

First Division:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Second Division:

Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Missouri
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

At the end of each year, the bottom two teams in the first division swap with the top two in the second division. Teams could play a round-robin within their division (7 games) plus one opponent from the other division, for a total of 8 conference games. That would provide a way for natural rivals like Alabama & Auburn or the Mississippis to play every year even if they wound up in different divisions.

It will never happen, of course, but it would be interesting.

[Santander]

Here's a creative idea for what the SEC should do if Texas and OU join to form a 16-team conference. 

Divide the conference into two divisions based on strength, with relegation and promotion each year like English soccer leagues do. For example, to start with it could be divided something like this:

First Division:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Second Division:

Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Missouri
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

At the end of each year, the bottom two teams in the first division swap with the top two in the second division. Teams could play a round-robin within their division (7 games) plus one opponent from the other division, for a total of 8 conference games. That would provide a way for natural rivals like Alabama & Auburn or the Mississippis to play every year even if they wound up in different divisions.

It will never happen, of course, but it would be interesting.

This is what I spend my time doing in Dynasty mode in NCAA14.

[7,052,770]

Here's a creative idea for what the SEC should do if Texas and OU join to form a 16-team conference. 

Divide the conference into two divisions based on strength, with relegation and promotion each year like English soccer leagues do. For example, to start with it could be divided something like this:

First Division:

Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

Second Division:

Arkansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Missouri
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

At the end of each year, the bottom two teams in the first division swap with the top two in the second division. Teams could play a round-robin within their division (7 games) plus one opponent from the other division, for a total of 8 conference games. That would provide a way for natural rivals like Alabama & Auburn or the Mississippis to play every year even if they wound up in different divisions.

It will never happen, of course, but it would be interesting.

Why in the world would anyone in your lower half ever agree to that? And why does a school who's been to 11 straight bowl games get slotted into the lower half anyway?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a creative idea for what the SEC should do if Texas and OU join to form a 16-team conference. 

...

It will never happen, of course, but it would be interesting.

Why in the world would anyone in your lower half ever agree to that? And why does a school who's been to 11 straight bowl games get slotted into the lower half anyway?

Note the bolded part.   I just think it's a fun idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS Sports writer's prediction of where the remaining Big 12 teams will end up if the conference implodes:

Baylor: AAC
Iowa State: Big 10
Kansas: Big 10
Kansas State: MWC
Oklahoma State: Pac-12
TCU: Pac-12
Texas Tech: AAC
West Virginia: ACC

I'm skeptical that the Pac-12 would prefer TCU to Texas Tech, but who knows.

[Santander]

TCU is not getting in a P5, lol. They're definitely not ahead of K-State or Texas Tech. West Virginia is probably the least likely land grant/flagship to get into a P5, and will probably miss out too. I don't see why the ACC would stoop to pick them up when they add so little. They already stooped for Louisville and look how that turned out. Iowa State is basically a last resort for the Big Ten. Theoretically possible, but they add nothing and Iowa doesn't want them.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Moronic. One (Kansas), maybe two (Oklahoma State) make even a lick of sense. I think it's clear the conference won't totally collapse when they have 6-7 pretty serious options with P5 type budgets, two of which were top 10 in the nation for all of last season, another two that had top 10 teams in the last 5 years.

[7,052,770]

CBS Sports writer's prediction of where the remaining Big 12 teams will end up if the conference implodes:

Baylor: AAC
Iowa State: Big 10
Kansas: Big 10
Kansas State: MWC
Oklahoma State: Pac-12
TCU: Pac-12
Texas Tech: AAC
West Virginia: ACC

I'm skeptical that the Pac-12 would prefer TCU to Texas Tech, but who knows.

Barrett Sallee is a joke. I wouldn't believe anything he says.

Remember how 10 years ago, the Pac-12 was pretty reluctant about the idea of adding Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, but was willingly to begrudgingly do so if they brought Texas and Oklahoma along? I just don't see them being attractive targets for the Pac-12 today without those bigger fish. If the Pac-12 would be interested in anyone, it might be Kansas (although still a longshot for the reasons Xahar gave), and I just don't see the Pac-12 seeing Kansas as so valuable they're worth reaching way out geographically and/or bringing in some who don't meet the cultural or academic requirements of the league. I think the Pac-12 stays at 12 for now.

The Big 10 is unlikely to consider a non-AAU member (although I think they would take Oklahoma), so that leaves Iowa State and Kansas. I don't see a compelling reason to add Iowa State at all, with it being a clear second fiddle in a small state, but maybe if Iowa State wins the CFP this fall they can barge on in. I think the Big 10 would either want to take Missouri (and maybe Kansas along as #16), or else do a big splash and grab a bunch of ACC schools. Imagine a 20-team super league that adds Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Notre Dame. (Clemson, FSU, and ND are not AAU members, but still probably worth adding if they can.)

The ACC could add West Virginia - it makes sense geographically, and they have some rivalries in the conference, but the ACC already went out on an academic limb for Louisville, and West Virginia is ranked even worse. If they decide that basketball matters in realignment decisions, a package deal of Iowa State, Kansas, and Baylor could make sense, but I don't think any realignment decision this century has been made on the basis of basketball, other than maybe the Big East adding Memphis before the big split.

What's got to suck for the schools is that several of them could have been plausible SEC adds had Oklahoma and Texas gone to a different conference. The SEC is probably the only P5 who would prefer Kansas State to Kansas, and I could definitely see the SEC deciding to pick up, say Oklahoma State and Kansas State as #15 and #16 in a world where the conferences fall apart and everyone moves toward 16.

All that to say, I don't think anything's happening. I saw on Twitter the remaining 8 were reaching out to the Pac-12 about a full 20-team merger, which is an interesting idea. Those 8 teams ought to really hope the Big 10 raids the ACC and maybe they can try to work out something with those remnants. Otherwise, my prediction is that the Big 12 reloads with 2-4 good G5s like Cincinnati and becomes a diminished member of the P5, at least in prestige, though overall average FPI of the conference may not be particularly affected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moronic. One (Kansas), maybe two (Oklahoma State) make even a lick of sense. I think it's clear the conference won't totally collapse when they have 6-7 pretty serious options with P5 type budgets, two of which were top 10 in the nation for all of last season, another two that had top 10 teams in the last 5 years.

I believe it's also true that the Big 12, as long as it exists under that name, remains one of the "autonomy" (P5) conferences, which is not something to give up lightly.  So I expect they'll do everything they can to continue on as a conference, which brings us back to the original scenario, i.e. they'll probably add 2 to 4 of the top G5 programs (possibly more if they lose anyone else).