TRUMP preparing YUGE campaign ad blitz!

[Old Man Willow]

Maybe Trump is panicking, after reading Larry Sabato's article. Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote. Trump's a loser Lief - perhaps a hyperactive loser, but a loser nonetheless. Deal with it. Perhaps it's time to move your troll game over to Cruz. Just a thought.

Outside IA, Trump has a wide enough lead that if a decent chunk of his base stays home, he still wins.

[Old Man Willow]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

[Old Man Willow]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

1.Cruz is the flavor of the month like Carson. His numbers will have plummeted in IA by this time next month, if anyone ends up beating Trump in IA it will be a Santorum 2012 razor thin margin.

2.Trump wins 2 way match ups in NH polls, so it's untrue that the undecided voters in NH dislike him.

[Old Man Willow]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

1.Cruz is the flavor of the month like Carson. His numbers will have plummeted in IA by this time next month, if anyone ends up beating Trump in IA it will be a Santorum 2012 razor thin margin.

2.Trump wins 2 way match ups in NH polls, so it's untrue that the undecided voters in NH dislike him.

Lol compare the people working cruzs ground game with trumps and get back to me

Ground game won't matter if the enthusiasm wears off. Also, even with an IA victory, Cruz will not overtake Trump in SC, especially after Trump gets his NH bump.